Reserve Bank of Australia: Slowing demand supports steady rates – TD Securities

TD Securities strategist Prashant Newnaha notes that softer S&P Australia Flash Composite PMI data, including weaker new orders and moderating price pressures, supports the Reserve Bank of Australia keeping its cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in August. Slowing domestic demand and easing output price inflation are seen as giving the RBA space to assess data before any policy shift.

PMI signals space for policy pause

"The drop in new orders and slowing in inflation pressures in S&P's Australia Flash Composite PMI for June adds support to the RBA keeping the cash rate on hold at its August meeting."

"More broadly the details support the RBA likely keeping the cash rate on hold at its August meeting."

"The slowing in orders implies a slowing in domestic demand."

"Sure prices are elevated, but the m/m Flash Output Prices outcome for June lowers the odds of an upside beat to the RBA's Q2 trimmed mean forecast of around 1% q/q."

"We expect an on-hold decision at the RBA's August meeting, the target cash rate remaining at 4.35%."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)