|

RBA: Anything less a hawkish hold would weigh on the Aussie – MUFG

The Australian Dollar has been trading on a softer footing going into tomorrow’s RBA policy meeting after correcting lower throughout the second half of last month. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze how the monetary policy decision could impact the Aussie.

RBA to leave rates on hold

The Australian rate market is currently pricing in only 4 bps of hikes for tomorrow’s RBA policy meeting. We agree with current market pricing and expect the RBA to leave rates on hold tomorrow.

If the RBA leaves rates on hold as we expect, then market attention will quickly shift to future rate guidance from the RBA. The Australian market is pricing in around 40 bps of hikes by the end of this year with the next hike expected in either August or September. 

Current pricing highlights that a hawkish hold is expected, and anything less would weigh on the Australian Dollar.

See – RBA Preview: Banks split between a pause and 25 bps hike after softer inflation

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

More from FXStreet Insights Team
Share:

Markets move fast. We move first.

Orange Juice Newsletter brings you expert driven insights - not headlines. Every day on your inbox.

By subscribing you agree to our Terms and conditions.

Editor's Picks

EUR/USD rebounds after falling toward 1.1700

EUR/USD gains traction and trades above 1.1730 in the American session, looking to end the week virtually unchanged. The bullish opening in Wall Street makes it difficult for the US Dollar to preserve its recovery momentum and helps the pair rebound heading into the weekend.

GBP/USD steadies below 1.3400 as traders assess BoE policy outlook

Following Thursday's volatile session, GBP/USD moves sideways below 1.3400 on Friday. Investors reassess the Bank of England's policy oıtlook after the MPC decided to cut the interest rate by 25 bps by a slim margin. Meanwhile, the improving risk mood helps the pair hold its ground.

Gold stays below $4,350, looks to post small weekly gains

Gold struggles to gather recovery momentum and stays below $4,350 in the second half of the day on Friday, as the benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield edges higher. Nevertheless, the precious metal remains on track to end the week with modest gains as markets gear up for the holiday season.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP rebound amid bearish market conditions

Bitcoin (BTC) is edging higher, trading above $88,000 at the time of writing on Monday. Altcoins, including Ethereum (ETH) and Ripple (XRP), are following in BTC’s footsteps, experiencing relief rebounds following a volatile week.

How much can one month of soft inflation change the Fed’s mind?

One month of softer inflation data is rarely enough to shift Federal Reserve policy on its own, but in a market highly sensitive to every data point, even a single reading can reshape expectations. November’s inflation report offered a welcome sign of cooling price pressures. 

XRP rebounds amid ETF inflows and declining retail demand demand

XRP rebounds as bulls target a short-term breakout above $2.00 on Friday. XRP ETFs record the highest inflow since December 8, signaling growing institutional appetite.