Q3 earnings season preview: What can investors expect?

Key takeaways

• Q3 earnings for the S&P 500 index are currently expected to grow 24.0% YoY on 11.4% higher revenues.
• Tech. remains a heavy contributor to the growth profile, though momentum is broad-based.
• The Q3 earnings season will pick up notable steam with the release of the big banks' results in mid-October.

The overall setup remains very favorable as we start looking ahead to the Q3 earnings season. S&P 500 earnings are expected to increase by +24% from the same period last year, the 8^th straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.

The Tech sector remains a major growth contributor, but momentum is broad-based, with 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors on track to enjoy positive earnings growth in Q3. Importantly, the revisions trend remains positive and broad-based, highlighting a steadily improving outlook.

The quarterly chart below details actual results alongside Q3 2026 growth expectations and forward projections.

As noted earlier, the revisions trend has been positive, sustaining the favorable trend in place for almost a year now. The chart below shows how 2026 Q3 earnings growth expectations have evolved lately.

This positive revisions behavior is not a new development; they extend a tailwind that has been building for nearly a year. Historically, these upward adjustments were tightly concentrated in Technology and, more recently, Energy following Middle East supply disruptions. However, for Q3 2026, the constructive estimate revisions have broadened significantly, rising across 8 of the 16 Zacks sectors—including Transportation, Finance, Aerospace, Industrials, Utilities, and Autos alongside Tech and Energy.

On the negative side, Q3 estimates have been under pressure for these 8 sectors since the quarter got underway – Conglomerates, Basic Materials, Consumer Staples, Consumer Discretionary, Medical, Business Services, Retail, and Construction.

Sector focus: Broad-based strength

Q3 earnings are expected to be above the year-earlier level for 14 of the 16 Zacks sectors, with 5 sectors expected to enjoy double-digit growth. The Conglomerates sector is the only one expected to have lower earnings in Q3 relative to the same period last year (down – 35.4%), while earnings for the Consumer Staples sector are expected to be flat.

The 5 sectors expected to enjoy double-digit earnings growth in Q3 are Aerospace (up +159.3%), Energy (+111.9%), Tech (+41.9%), Basic Materials (+31.2%), and Transportation (+15.1%).

Q3 earnings growth for the S&P 500 index drops to +20% from +24% once the Energy sector’s contribution is excluded from the index. Excluding the Tech sector, Q3 earnings growth for the rest of the index drops to +14.4%.

The chart below shows the Q3 earnings and revenue growth expectations for the Tech sector relative to what we saw from the sector in the preceding two periods and what is expected in the following three quarters.

Nvidia (NVDA) and Micron (MU) have been enjoying a record earnings run in recent quarters, and that performance continues in Q3 as well.

Nvidia’s Q3 earnings are expected to increase +90% year-over-year on +91.2% higher revenues, while the year-over-year earnings and revenue growth rates for Micron are expected to be +938% and +348.6%, respectively.

Q3 earnings growth for the Tech sector gets cut by slightly more than half once contributions from Nvidia and Micron are excluded, as the chart below shows.

Q3 earnings season scorecard

The Q3 earnings season will get the spotlight when the big banks report on October 13th, but the reporting cycle actually got underway with the September 10th quarterly releases from Oracle and Adobe.

The Oracle and Adobe reports were for these Tech companies’ fiscal quarters ending in August, which get counted as part of the September-quarter tally. Homebuilder Lennar has since become the third S&P 500 member to report such Q3 results.

We have an additional six index members on deck to report their fiscal August-quarter results this week, including Costco, AutoZone, Darden and others.

Total Q3 earnings for the three S&P 500 members that have reported results already are up +22.6% from the same period last year on +14.9% higher revenues, with 33.3% beating EPS estimates and 66.7% besting revenue estimates.

The comparison charts below show the earnings and revenue growth rates for these companies compared to other recent periods.

The comparison charts below show the Q3 EPS and revenue beats percentages for these companies compared to other recent periods.

The earnings big picture

The chart below shows the aggregate growth picture for the S&P 500 index on a calendar year basis.