Oil: Tanker risks support prices – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil remains supported as tensions between the US and Iran escalate in the Persian Gulf. They highlight continued flows through the Strait of Hormuz, aided by US Navy escorts, and unchanged OPEC+ quotas. Speculative net longs in ICE Brent have risen, while disruptions mean many producers stay below quota.

Persian Gulf tensions underpin crude

"The oil market remains well-supported with little sign of a peace between the US and Iran. The US struck several Iranian-linked tankers in response to Iran targeting US warships. Iran says it has also taken action against tankers navigating unauthorised routes, and now plans to enforce a new restricted zone outside the Strait of Hormuz — a move that could put additional vessels in the Gulf of Oman at risk."

"Despite the escalation, oil continues to flow. The US energy secretary said oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz is averaging a little more than 9m b/d, made possible by US Navy escorts."

"OPEC+ kept its output quotas unchanged for October, which comes as no surprise. The group announced increases this year, which fully unwind voluntary cuts of 1.65m b/d. However, given ongoing disruptions in the Persian Gulf, most members will produce well below their quota."

"Given the recent flare-up between Iran and the US, it's not surprising that speculators increased their net long in ICE Brent over the last reporting week. Speculators bought 37,837 lots to leave them with a net long of 261,435 lots as of last Tuesday. While fresh buying and short covering were relatively sizeable, most of the increase came from short covering."

"While oil price action has been more modest with the latest developments in the Middle East, European gas prices have seen more upside. The TTF was trading almost 4% up in early morning trading today. Unfortunately, LNG has not been flowing out as much as crude oil, leaving the gas market increasingly vulnerable as we near the 2026/27 heating season."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

AUD/USD pulls back from monthly high but holds above 0.7000

AUD/USD retreats from the monthly high set earlier this Thursday, sliding back to 0.7000 during the Asian session as a further escalation of tensions in the Middle East undermines the risk-sensitive Aussie. However, recent hawkish comments from RBA officials could support the Australian Dollar. Furthermore, the prevailing US Dollar selling bias, despite Fed hike bets and geopolitical uncertainties, could limit losses for the pair.

USD/JPY declines to a one-week low; eyes trading range support near 157.50 on weaker USD

USD/JPY drops to a one-week low during Thursday’s Asian session, with bears now awaiting a break below multi-week range support near mid-157.00s before placing fresh bets amid a broadly weaker US Dollar. Despite bets for a December Fed rate hike and Middle East jitters, the recent decline in US bond yields keeps USD depressed near a three-week low. Moreover, hawkish BoJ expectations and intervention risks underpin the Japanese Yen, further weighing on the currency pair.

Gold bounces off monthly low as USD selling remains unabated amid falling bond yields

Gold pares heavy intraday losses to the monthly trough, though it retains an intraday bearish tone below $4,100 during Thursday’s early European session. The US Dollar selling bias remains unabated as Federal Reserve officials recently signaled there is no urgency to raise interest rates at the upcoming October 27–28 meeting. Furthermore, US bond yields extend their retracement slide from multi-year highs, keeping USD bulls on the back foot and offering some support to the precious metal.

Dogecoin stays weak despite whales and new deal

Dogecoin price remains under pressure, trading below $0.081 despite a modest rebound earlier this week. Santiment data shows signs of accumulation, and Wednesday’s announcement of a Dogecoin Labs partnership with the Dogecoin Foundation adds a mildly bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, mixed derivatives metrics and weakening momentum indicators continue to limit the meme coin recovery.

3 Gold forecasts at $4,100: A bullish Arc rejection, a bearish Fed setup and a festival tiebreaker

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading near $4,100, and the three latest analyses cannot agree on what the level means: one sees the bounce from support as confirmation of a potential push toward $4,227, another argues every rally is vulnerable while price sits under its 20-day EMA, and the third points to India's Diwali buying season as the physical test about to meet the market.

The US Dollar fell. Gold didn't rally. That tells you everything

Gold (XAU/USD) is struggling to capitalize on a weaker US Dollar (USD), after repeatedly failing to establish itself above the $4,200 level. The precious metal remains confined to a relatively narrow trading range despite a combination of developments that would normally support higher prices.