Oil: Supply risks and Russian waiver extension – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say Oil remains volatile as Iran-related risks and supply disruptions in the Persian Gulf keep prices in wide ranges. They highlight a fresh US waiver allowing Russian Oil floating at sea to be sold for another 30 days, which should help Asian buyers. Chinese refinery runs and apparent Oil demand have weakened, partly reflecting inventory drawdowns.

Oil swings on Iran risks and waivers

"The oil market continues to trade in wide ranges, and it remains extremely sensitive to Iran-related headlines amid current supply disruptions."

"Prices whipsawed after more aggressive rhetoric from President Trump coming into this week, followed by reports that the US offered a temporary sanction waiver on Iranian oil until an agreement between the US and Iran is reached."

"The US extended a waiver that expired over the weekend, allowing the sale of Russian oil floating at sea for another 30 days. It allows sales until 17 June, with the aim of stabilising oil markets amid significant losses in the Persian Gulf."

"Refineries in April processed 13.35m b/d of crude oil, down 5.8% year-on-year and the lowest level since August 2024."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)

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