Oil: Prices retreat on Gulf diplomacy – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note that Oil prices are under renewed downward pressure, with ICE Brent breaking below $90/bbl as talks involving Iran, Oman and Pakistan on the Strait of Hormuz and the Middle East war progress. They highlight fragile Hormuz flows, question US flow estimates, and point to tighter US product markets despite rising crude inventories.

Brent slides as Hormuz risks evolve

"Oil prices continue to retreat, with ICE Brent settling 3.89% lower yesterday and breaking below $90/bbl. This downward pressure continued in early morning Asia trading today. The catalyst appears to be positive signals from Persian Gulf talks."

"However, any agreement between these two parties does not mean we will see normalisation in oil flows through the key chokepoint. We would likely need to see the US lift its blockade on Iranian ports and ease sanctions on Iran before we see any move towards normalisation."

"The US claims that an average of 8-9m b/d of oil is flowing through the Strait of Hormuz, which may be achievable over short time periods. However, over a longer time frame, this number seems aggressive. Several ship-tracking estimates are coming in much lower, ranging from 2m b/d to around 6m b/d."

"Overnight API inventory data show US crude oil inventories rose by 4.2m barrels over the last week. However, the products market tightened further, with gasoline and distillate inventories falling by 3.2m barrels and 500k barrels, respectively."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD edges lower below 1.3650, with eyes on US PCE data

GBP/USD trades with a negative bias below 1.3650 in the European session on Wednesday, eroding a part of the previous day's strong gains. The pair, however, remains within striking distance of a six-month top, set last Friday, as traders keenly await the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data for a fresh impetus.

EUR/USD holds lower ground near 1.1650 ahead of key US data

EUR/USD is holding lower ground toward 1.1650 in Wednesday's European session. The US Dollar is recovering modestly amid profit-taking and Middle East uncertainty. US inflation, tracked by the PCE, and another revision of Q2 GDP data should keep investors entertained on Wednesday.

Gold remains depressed below $4,650 on firmer USD; looks to US PCE for Fed rate outlook

Gold sticks to modest losses below $4,650 heading into the European session, though it lacks bearish conviction and remains confined within the previous day's broader range. The US Dollar regains positive traction amid some repositioning ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index and is seen as weighing on the commodity. Adding to this, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday might offer more cues about the interest rate path.

Dogecoin, Shiba Inu, Pepe: Profit-taking cools last week’s rally

Meme coins, including Dogecoin (DOGE), Shiba Inu (SHIB), and Pepe (PEPE), are losing their bullish momentum after last week’s double-digit gains. Facing downside pressure amid profit-taking, DOGE and PEPE risk further decline while SHIB holds at a support level.

America’s self‑inflicted trade wound

I’m conflicted about the trade war that the U.S. has started with Canada. Let’s be clear: any representation that Canada has been taking unfair advantage of the U.S. or that they have been treating us badly for years is a bogus characterization. In reality, the shoe is on the other foot. It’s the U.S. that has been behaving badly.

Canada hits US goods with tariffs; The rate market sees a problem

On September 8, Canada begins charging its own importers 15%, 25% and 50% on roughly 700 lines of American goods. The measure is billed as dollar for dollar, and on the arithmetic of covered trade it is. What it is not is a tax on the United States.