Japanese Yen: Range-bound with mild upside against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang notes USD/JPY at 159.00 rebounded sharply from 158.00, but now looks set to trade between 158.50 and 159.35 intraday. For the next 1–3 weeks, he maintains a slightly negative view, expecting the pair to edge lower within a 156.60–159.60 range, while longer-term charts still allow for an extended advance above the 21-day EMA.

Short-term softness within broad range

"24-HOUR VIEW: On Monday, USD plunged to a low of 158.03. Yesterday, we highlighted that “the sharp decline appears overdone, and while USD could drop below 158.00, any decline is likely part of a lower range of 157.70/158.70 rather than a sustained decline.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. USD dipped to 158.00 and then rebounded strongly to close at 159.05 (+0.56%). This time around, the rebound appears to be overdone, and instead of continuing to rebound, USD is more likely to trade in a range between 158.50 and 159.35."

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We revised our USD view to slightly negative yesterday (19 Aug, spot at 158.30). We highlighted that “downward momentum is starting to build, but it is insufficient for a sustained decline.” We also highlighted that USD “could edge lower, but any decline should be contained within a 156.60/159.60 range.” We did not expect the subsequent strong rebound that reached a high of 159.18. Although the build-up in downward momentum is fading, we will continue to hold the same view for now."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)