Japanese Yen edges up against the US Dollar but remains close to 40-year lows

USD/JPY pulls back to 162.30 from session highs in the 162.50 area on Tuesday.
The US Dollar eases as investors await ¡the US CPI data release and Fed Warsh's testimony to Congress.
The Yen remains on the defensive as Tokyo lacks a plan to reallocate pension funds' investments.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Japanese Yen (JPY) is trimming losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday, as the USD/JPY pair retreats to the 162.30 area at the European session opening, down from session highs near 162.50. The Yen has drawn some support from a slightly weaker US Dollar, but remains close to the 40-year low of 162.84.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the Greenback against a basket of six peers, is pulling back from nearly two-week highs, as investors await the release of US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures and the testimony of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Chairman, Kevin Warsh, before the US Congress.

US CPI seen well above the Fed's target

US consumer Prices are expected to have eased to a 3.8% year-over-year (Y-o-Y) increment in June from 4.2% in May, while the core CPI is seen growing at a steady 2.9% yearly rate.

These figures will follow comments by Fed Governor Christopher Waller on Monday, saying that the central bank will have to hike rates in the “near-term” if inflation remains above the 2% target, which boosted hopes that the next rate hike might come as soon as July.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East continues deteriorating. The US military has resumed its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has attacked some vessels trying to cross the waterway. On Monday, US President Donald Trump offered protection to vessels attempting to cross the corridor for a 20% fee, altogether sending Oil prices to multi-week highs and fuelling inflationary pressures further.

In Japan, a report from Reuters affirmed that the Japanese Government does not have a specific plan to repatriate investments from the Government Pension Investment Fund (GPIF). The Yen, which bounced up last week when the Finance Ministry announced that measure, tumbled on Monday amid the lack of concretion shown by Japanese authorities.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index ex Food & Energy (YoY)

Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier. The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.

Why it matters to traders?

The US Federal Reserve has a dual mandate of maintaining price stability and maximum employment. According to such mandate, inflation should be at around 2% YoY and has become the weakest pillar of the central bank’s directive ever since the world suffered a pandemic, which extends to these days. Price pressures keep rising amid supply-chain issues and bottlenecks, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) hanging at multi-decade highs. The Fed has already taken measures to tame inflation and is expected to maintain an aggressive stance in the foreseeable future.

Author

Guillermo Alcala

FXStreet

Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.

AUD/USD remains below 0.7000 amid light trading

AUD/USD fills a modest bearish gap on Monday, but remains below 0.7000 in the Asian session amid holiday-thinned liquidity. The US Dollar attempts a bounce even as US bond yields pull back from multi-year highs, limiting the pair. Moreover, diminishing odds of another RBA rate hike in November cap the Aussie.

USD/JPY hovers above 158.00 amid Japan/ US holiday

USD/JPY extends its range-bound price action into a new week, trading above 158.00 as bulls remain on high alert amid speculation that authorities will step in to prop up the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, softer US bond yields keep US Dollar bulls on the back foot and cap the pair's upside. However, geopolitical uncertainties could limit losses for the safe-haven buck amid thin liquidity due to a holiday in Japan and the US.

Gold sticks to modest losses; seems vulnerable below $4,200 on Fed hike bets

Gold extends its intraday retracement slide from a one-week high, hitting a fresh daily low around $4,170 during the early European session. The US Dollar attracts fresh buyers after a modest downtick amid the US Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook, which, in turn, is seen as weighing on the non-yielding bullion.

Bitcoin struggles as ETF outflows, geopolitical uncertainty weigh

Bitcoin hovers around $83,600 on Monday after a 3.1% correction last week. US-listed spot ETFs recorded an outflow of $681.10 million last week, snapping the three-week inflow streak. Geopolitical uncertainty and mixed signals keep investors cautious.

The week ahead: A critical week as earnings and CPI test market

The Oil price is relatively stable this morning, and US and European stock markets are poised to open higher, as risk sentiment shrugs off an escalation in the Middle East and concerns about rising bond yields.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?