India: Growth and inflation forecasts revised higher – UOB

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

UOB's Jester Koh note they raise their FY27 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) forecast for India to 7.2% from 6.8% after a stronger-than-expected 1QFY27 expansion of 7.8% year-on-year. They also lift their FY27 headline inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5.0%, citing robust food price momentum, higher costs in services and energy, partly cushioned by subsidies and ample public foodgrain stocks.

Growth upgrade with stronger prices

"We raise our FY27 GDP forecast to 7.2% (from 6.8% prev.) following the strong 1QFY27 outturn (7.8% y/y; Bloomberg: 7.3%, 4Q: 8.6%)."

"We raise our FY27 headline inflation forecast to 5.2% (from 5.0%)."

"In our baseline projections, we pencil in several months of stronger m/m increases reflecting the impact of adverse weather-related events on food supply, although this would be partly mitigated by comfortable levels of public foodgrain stocks."

"India's real interest rate would turn negative without further rate hikes, with inflation projected to exceed 6% y/y as early as Nov 2026."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor. Know more.)

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

GBP/USD weakens to two-week lows near 1.3520

GBP/USD trades on the back foot, returning to the low 1.3500s, or two-week troughs, on Tuesday. Cable’s bearish price action follows decent gains in the Greenback at the time when investors assess latest US data releases and the persistent uncertainty in the US-Iran crisis.

EUR/USD remains offered; breaks below 1.1600

EUR/USD now accelerates its daily correction, breaching below the key 1.1600 support level on Tuesday. The pair’s daily correction comes on the back of a decent bounce in the US Dollar despite disappointing US data releases and amid persistent geopolitical concerns.

Gold flirts with multi-week lows near $4,300

Gold accelerates its correction and recedes toward the key $4,300 mark per troy ounce on Tuesday. The yellow metal’s persistent decline comes in response to the solid performance of the US Dollar and a sharp move higher in US Treasury yields across the curve.

RBNZ set to raise interest rate to 2.75%

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is on track to deliver a follow-through interest rate hike, raising the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by another 25 basis points (bps) from 2.50% to 2.75% on Wednesday. Experts expect a consensus decision this week, unlike a deeply divided outcome predicted during the July monetary policy meeting.

Global bond market sell off haunts markets

Global sovereign bonds are selling off as we start a new month. The UK is, unsurprisingly, taking the biggest hit. Two and 10-year yields rose by 10 basis points at one point on Tuesday, and are currently higher by 7 and 8bps respectively.

Diesel’s record $100 warning: The oil shock hiding in plain sight

The Oil market may look calmer than it did a few months ago, but diesel is sending a very different message. The US diesel crack spread, the premium of ultra-low sulphur diesel futures over WTI, recently surged above $100 per barrel for the first time, reaching an intraday record of just over $102.00.