IMF forecasts global real GDP growth of 3.1% in 2026

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.0% in July, with strong AI investment offsetting the energy shock from the Middle East war. However, 2027 growth remained unchanged at 3.4%.

Additional takeaways

IMF forecasts 2026 global real GDP growth at 3.1% versus 3.0% in the July forecast as AI investment tempers energy price shock in key economies.

IMF forecasts 2027 global growth at 3.4%, unchanged from July, vs 2025 growth of 3.5%.

IMF says 32 countries now account for 95% of global growth, down from about 54 countries in April forecast.

IMF forecasts US 2026 growth at 2.3%, unchanged from July forecast and 2025; 2027 US growth forecast at 2.3% vs 2.2% in July.

IMF forecasts China 2026 growth at 4.5%, 2027 growth at 4.0%, both down 0.1 percentage point from July forecasts.

IMF forecasts Euro area 2026 growth at 1.1% vs 0.9% in July due to resilience in Germany, Italy, Spain.

IMF forecasts India 2026 growth at 7.0% in 2026 and 2027, vs 6.4% and 6.7%, respectively, in July amid resilient domestic demand.

IMF forecasts assume Strait of Hormuz reopening resumes in March 2027, with return to broad pre-war conditions by October 2027.

IMF projects global headline inflation to increase to 4.7% in 2026, ease to 4.1% in 2027, matching 2025 level.

IMF scenario of worsened Middle East war with $130 per barrel oil through q1 2027 cuts global growth by 0.2 percentage point in 2026, 0.5 percentage point in 2027.

IMF projects average oil price at $96 per barrel in 2026, $87 in 2027 vs July forecasts of $89 and $78, respectively.

IMF scenario of unwinding of AI investment and sharply lower asset prices reduces global GDP output by 1.1% by 2028.

GDP FAQs

What is GDP and how is it recorded?

A country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures the rate of growth of its economy over a given period of time, usually a quarter. The most reliable figures are those that compare GDP to the previous quarter e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q1 of 2023, or to the same period in the previous year, e.g Q2 of 2023 vs Q2 of 2022. Annualized quarterly GDP figures extrapolate the growth rate of the quarter as if it were constant for the rest of the year. These can be misleading, however, if temporary shocks impact growth in one quarter but are unlikely to last all year – such as happened in the first quarter of 2020 at the outbreak of the covid pandemic, when growth plummeted.

How does GDP influence currencies?

A higher GDP result is generally positive for a nation’s currency as it reflects a growing economy, which is more likely to produce goods and services that can be exported, as well as attracting higher foreign investment. By the same token, when GDP falls it is usually negative for the currency. When an economy grows people tend to spend more, which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation with the side effect of attracting more capital inflows from global investors, thus helping the local currency appreciate.

How does higher GDP impact the price of Gold?

When an economy grows and GDP is rising, people tend to spend more which leads to inflation. The country’s central bank then has to put up interest rates to combat the inflation. Higher interest rates are negative for Gold because they increase the opportunity-cost of holding Gold versus placing the money in a cash deposit account. Therefore, a higher GDP growth rate is usually a bearish factor for Gold price.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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