Gold Price Forecast: A pause in the Fed’s rate rises should provide some support to XAU/USD – ANZ

Economists at ANZ Bank analyze the correlation between the US yield and Gold and discuss the yellow metal’s outlook.

USD strength is likely to wane in 2024

History suggests Gold returns remain decent during rate hiking cycles and outperform during easing and a lower rate environment.

The negative beta with the US yield weakens during hiking cycles and strengthens during easing cycles.

USD strength is likely to wane in 2024. While we think appreciation in the USD will sustain to year-end, firmer expectations of rate cuts and slowing economic growth momentum will see the USD dropping again next year.

GBP/USD clings to gains near 1.3460

GBP/USD holds steady above 1.3450 on Monday but struggles to build bullish momentum. Markets continue to assess developments in the US-Iran conflict following the weekend hostilities, helping the Greenback remain resilient against its rivals. Attention will turn to the UK employment report on Tuesday.

EUR/USD drops to three-day lows; focus is on 1.1400

EUR/USD trades on the back foot for the third day in a row and approaches the key 1.1400 contention zone on Monday. The pair’s pullback comes amid persistent uncertainty surrounding the Middle East crisis and decent gains in the US Dollar. Later this week, attention will turn to the ECB’s interest rate decision.

Gold challenges $4,000 amid a modest decline

Gold comes under some mild downside pressure and trades just above the key $4,000 mark per troy ounce at the beginning of the week. Escalating military action in the Middle East provides some support to the safe-haven metal, although expectations of higher US interest rates bolster the US Dollar and keeps its under the microscope.

Ethereum remains fragile underneath the surface despite outperformance

Ethereum's outperformance over the past week shows it's gaining relative strength against other top cryptocurrencies, but under the surface, key metrics indicate its rise remains fragile. Between last week and Wednesday, ETH recorded double-digit gains, outperforming fellow crypto majors Bitcoin, XRP, and Solana, before the broader market began to correct on Thursday.

Ripple Price: XRP bears retail control despite increasing retail demand

Ripple (XRP) faces sustained selling pressure as bears maintain control on Monday. The remittance token has struggled to break above the $1.10 resistance since last Thursday, as risk sentiment weighs. Demand for XRP derivatives has gradually increased since last week, with the perpetual futures Open Interest (OI) averaging 2.4 billion XRP on Monday, up from 2.13 billion XRP the previous day.

US Dollar mid-year outlook: Exceptional currency, exceptional risks?

The US Dollar enters the second half of 2026 in a markedly different position from a year ago. The King currency has recovered, reflecting persistent US inflation, changing expectations for Fed policy, geopolitical tensions and renewed demand for defensive assets.