Gold: High carry costs now, $5,000 target later – TD Securities

TD Securities strategists argue that higher energy-linked inflation and delayed Fed cuts keep the opportunity cost of holding Gold elevated in the near term.

They also flag the lack of Middle East capital as a downside catalyst. However, as energy and rates normalize and the Dollar weakens, they expect Gold to return above $5,000 in late 2026.

Near-term headwinds, long-term bullish target

"Even with the ceasefire, it will take time to reverse higher inflation expectations along with higher energy, fertilizer, and chemical prices, making it difficult for the Fed to cut soon."

"This will keep the opportunity costs to holding precious metals elevated. The lack of Middle East capital in the gold market is also a downside catalyst."

"However, as broader normalization in energy and rates materialize and the dollar weakens, gold is likely to return above $5,000 in the latter part of 2026."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)