Forecasting the upcoming week: Hawkish Fed meets escalating Iran war
The US Dollar (USD)i weakened this week, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) slipping back below 100.00 to 99.60 on Friday after a surge in the middle of the week driven by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) decision to hold rates in the 3.50%-3.75% range. The war in Iran is nearing the end of its third week, with the Strait of Hormuz still effectively closed as Oil prices remain high. Reports indicate that the Pentagon is deploying thousands of additional Marines to the region, suggesting that a swift resolution is unlikely. Additionally, Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that inflationary pressures could still rise.
US Dollar Price Today
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the strongest against the Australian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.33% | 0.80% | 1.02% | -0.19% | 1.09% | 0.91% | 0.06% | |
| EUR | -0.33% | 0.46% | 0.70% | -0.52% | 0.77% | 0.58% | -0.26% | |
| GBP | -0.80% | -0.46% | 0.25% | -0.98% | 0.30% | 0.12% | -0.72% | |
| JPY | -1.02% | -0.70% | -0.25% | -1.19% | 0.07% | -0.10% | -0.93% | |
| CAD | 0.19% | 0.52% | 0.98% | 1.19% | 1.28% | 1.11% | 0.26% | |
| AUD | -1.09% | -0.77% | -0.30% | -0.07% | -1.28% | -0.17% | -1.02% | |
| NZD | -0.91% | -0.58% | -0.12% | 0.10% | -1.11% | 0.17% | -0.84% | |
| CHF | -0.06% | 0.26% | 0.72% | 0.93% | -0.26% | 1.02% | 0.84% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
EUR/USD is trading near the 1.1550 region after touching fresh 2026 lows earlier in the week, even though the European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish tilt, with markets now pricing an 85% probability of a rate hike this year.
GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3330 after the Bank of England (BoE) held rates on Thursday but signaled it may need to tighten policy if energy-driven inflation persists.
USD/JPY is trading near 159.30 with the Yen catching a bid as the Bank of Japan (BoJ) signaled it will resume its normalization path.
AUD/USD is trading near 0.7010 after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised rates for a second consecutive meeting, though broader risk-off sentiment continues to weigh on the Aussie.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil is trading near $98 per barrel, near its weekly high after Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he will help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Gold plummeted to $4,583 after a brutal selloff driven by rising Treasury yields and forced liquidation of leveraged positions, outpacing any safe-haven demand from the conflict.
Anticipating economic perspectives: Voices on the horizon
Monday, March 23:
- ECB's Escrivá.
- ECB's Cipollone.
- ECB's Lane.
Tuesday, March 24:
- RBNZ's Breman.
- ECB's Kocher.
- ECB's Sleijpen.
- ECB's Cipollone.
- ECB's Nagel.
- ECB's Lane.
- Fed's Barr.
Wednesday, March 25:
- ECB's President Lagarde.
- ECB's Lane.
- BoE's Greene.
- Fed's Miran.
Thursday, March 26:
- ECB's De Guindos.
- BoE's Breeden.
- BoE's Greene.
- BoE's Taylor.
- Fed's Cook.
- Fed's Miran.
- Fed's Jefferson.
- Fed's Logan.
- Fed's Barr.
Friday, March 27:
- Fed's Daly.
- Fed's Paulson.
- ECB's Schnabel.
Saturday, March 28:
- ECB's Cipollone.
Central banks' meetings and upcoming data releases to shape monetary policies
Monday, March 23:
- Eurozone March Consumer Confidence Prel.
- Australia March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
- Japan February Consumer Price Index.
Tuesday, March 24:
- Eurozone March HCOB PMIs Prel.
- UK March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
- US ADP Employment Change.
- US Nonfarm Productivity & Unit Labor Costs (Q4).
- US March S&P Global PMIs Prel.
- Japan BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
Wednesday, March 25:
- Australia Consumer Price Index (Feb).
- United Kingdom Inflation Data (CPI, PPI, RPI).
- Switzerland March ZEW Survey – Expectations.
- Germany March IFO Business Climate.
- Switzerland SNB Quarterly Bulletin (Q1).
Thursday, March 26:
- Germany GfK April Consumer Confidence.
- Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (Q4).
- Germany Bundesbank Monthly Report.
- US Initial Jobless Claims.
- New Zealand March ANZ – Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence.
Friday, March 27:
- UK March Consumer Confidence.
- UK February Retail Sales.
- Eurozone March Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices Prel.
- US March Michigan Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations.
(This story was corrected on March 20 at 22:14 GMT to say that the war in Iran is nearing the end of its third week instead of the fourth.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Author
Agustin Wazne
FXStreet
Agustin Wazne joined FXStreet as a Junior News Editor, focusing on Commodities and covering Majors.
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