Euro steadies against Canadian Dollar following stronger German Consumer Confidence data

Euro holds ground as September GfK consumer sentiment improved to -26.6, beating market expectations.
Investors await the ECB’s meeting accounts for fresh clues on the Eurozone's future interest rate trajectory.
The Canadian Dollar weakens as falling crude oil prices weigh on the commodity-linked currency.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/CAD maintains its position after three days of gains, trading around 1.6170 during the European hours on Thursday. The currency cross remains steady as the Euro (EUR) moves little following a surprisingly upbeat economic data out of Germany.

The September GfK Consumer Confidence Survey improved significantly to -26.6, climbing from -29.4 in August and soundly beating market forecasts that had anticipated a slight dip to -29.6. Looking ahead, traders are turning their focus to the release of the ECB’s Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts due later in the day, which will be thoroughly analyzed for fresh insights regarding the Eurozone's interest rate trajectory.

Additionally, the EUR/CAD cross receives support as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) struggles amid lower oil prices. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price trades around $81.10 per barrel at the time of writing.

Crude oil prices decline amid signs of diplomatic progress in the Middle East. Iran and Oman reached an agreement over each country’s share of the Strait of Hormuz’s waters and related revenues, although Tehran cautioned that reopening the crucial waterway would require more than an agreement with Oman. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said 10 million barrels of oil had passed through Hormuz on Tuesday, while reiterating claims that mines in the waterway had been cleared.

Ukraine strikes and Iran war deepen pressure on oil supply

Strategists at Rabobank caution that, while broader market concerns over energy security remain "still a hypothetical that markets can ignore for now," the latest developments are clearly intensifying stress across the complex. They note that "the Ukrainian strikes are adding pressure to the energy complex," with Ukraine having "forced another outage at the second-largest Russian gasoline producer," while "Moscow will extend the diesel export ban through September according to Reuters’ sources." Rabobank argues these emerging "supply shocks add to the disruptions from the Iran war," reinforcing the risk of more persistent tightness in oil and refined product markets if such outages and bans are prolonged.

Economic Indicator

GfK Consumer Confidence Survey

The GfK Consumer Confidence is a leading index that measures the level of consumer confidence in economic activity. A high level of consumer confidence stimulates economic expansion while a low level drives to economic downturn. Generally speaking, a high reading is positive (or bullish) for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

AUD/USD bulls regain control above 0.6950 amid USD retreat

AUD/USD regains traction and extends the previous day's bounce from the weekly low, aiming for 0.7000 in Asia on Friday. The overnight pullback in US bond yields keeps the US Dollar below an 18-month high, which in turn offers some support to the pair. Meanwhile, hawkish RBA expectations also keep the major underpinned.

USD/JPY holds gains near 158.00 after Japan's weak Household Spending data

USD/JPY clings to gains around 158.00 after data showed on Friday that Japan's Household Spending fell for the ninth straight month, undermining the Japanese Yen. Meanwhile, the US Dollar remains depressed as the overnight fall in US bond yields counters a hawkish Fed and geopolitical uncertainties, could cap any downside in the pair.

Gold remains range-bound below $4,200

Gold has given up some ground after an initial bullish attempt to reach weekly highs, returning to below the $4,200 mark per troy ounce on Friday. The US Dollar’s strong upside momentum, combined with rising US Treasury yields across the curve, seems to keep further gains in the yellow metal under scrutiny.

Has Bitcoin really escaped the macro forces it was built to fight?

Over 17 years ago, Satoshi Nakamoto designed Bitcoin (BTC) on the back of a global financial crisis as an alternative to the global monetary system outside the control of central banks, governments and traditional intermediaries. This raises a key question: has Bitcoin really become independent of the macroeconomic forces it was built to challenge?

The Euro is not the sick man of Europe. France's bond market is

EUR/USD remains under pressure, near the 17-month low of 1.1161 reached on Monday. The pair has lost more than 7% since its yearly peak, as concerns over France's public finances increasingly weigh on the single currency. But behind the weakness of the Euro (EUR), the problem does not necessarily lie with the European economy as a whole.