Euro remains weaker against Canadian Dollar following German PMI data

EUR/CAD holds losses as Germany's flash HCOB Composite PMI eased to 51.0 in August amid a weaker services sector.
Escalating US-Iran geopolitical tensions have driven crude oil higher, boosting Canada's energy exports and lifting the commodity-linked CAD.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that maximum economic pressure reduces the likelihood of a large-scale military escalation against Iran.

Akhtar Faruqui FXStreet

EUR/CAD extends its losses for the second successive day, trading around 1.6100 during the European hours on Friday. The currency cross depreciates as the Euro (EUR) holds losses following the release of HCOB Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data from Germany. Eurozone PMI figures will be eyed later in the day.

Germany's flash HCOB Composite PMI pulled back to 51.0 in August from 51.3 expected, weighed down by a sharper contraction in the services sector. The Services PMI fell deeper into contraction territory at 48.5, dropping from 49.8 previously and missing the 50.1 estimate. Conversely, the manufacturing sector provided a bright spot. The Manufacturing PMI surged to 54.1 in August, climbing from 52.2 previously and beating the market forecast of 52.0.

The EUR/CAD cross loses ground as the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) receives support from rising crude oil prices. Oil prices have surged due to escalating tensions between the United States (US) and Iran, which remain locked in a standoff over control of the crucial Strait of Hormuz. In response, Washington is moving to severely restrict Iran's economy in an initiative President Donald Trump labeled an "economic D-day," with formal details expected on Monday.

The US proposed measures aim to sever Tehran's access to global commercial and financial networks, targeting banks, businesses, shipping registries, cash transfers, and smuggling operations, in an effort to force the regime into negotiations regarding its nuclear program, regional conflicts, and the passage through Hormuz.

According to a CNBC report, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that the administration's campaign to dismantle Iran's economic lifelines will likely eliminate the need for significant military intervention. Bessent stated that applying maximum economic pressure makes a large-scale kinetic escalation far less probable.

Oil edges higher as Middle East tensions persist

Analysts at Nordea point out that geopolitical risks remain elevated, noting that "the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, peace in the Middle East still seems distant, and oil prices have crept higher again." They highlight that the combination of restricted shipping lanes and the lack of a clear path to de-escalation is keeping upward pressure on energy markets.

Economic Indicator

HCOB Services PMI

The Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), released on a monthly basis by S&P Global and Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB), is a leading indicator gauging business activity in Germany’s services sector. The data is derived from surveys of senior executives at private-sector companies from the services sector. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month and can anticipate changing trends in official data series such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment and inflation. The index varies between 0 and 100, with levels of 50.0 signaling no change over the previous month. A reading above 50 indicates that the services economy is generally expanding, a bullish sign for the Euro (EUR). Meanwhile, a reading below 50 signals that activity among service providers is generally declining, which is seen as bearish for EUR.

GBP/USD off highs, back to 1.3620

GBP/USD remains slightly on the defensive at the end of the week, receding to the low 1.3600s after hitting fresh tops past 1.3670 earlier in the day. Cable’s correction comes after two daily gains in a row and amid a tepid advance in the Greenback, while poor UK data also accompany the downside.

EUR/USD treads water below 1.1700

EUR/USD now trades with modest losses around 1.1670 following another unsuccessful atempt to advance past 1.1700 the figure in a convincing fashion. The pair’s decline follows a maginal rebound in the US Dollar as market participants continue to assess recent US data as well as developments from the US bond market.

Gold trims gains, recedes to the sub-$4,600 area

Gold rapidly leaves behind Thursday’s inconclusive price action and advances markedly on Friday, briefly surpassing the $4,600 mark per troy ounce to hit three-month peaks. Meanwhile, the precious metal’s solid performance comes despite marginal gains in the buck coupled with another day of rising US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP bulls accelerate rally amid rising ETF inflows

The cryptocurrency market remains bullish on Friday, led by Bitcoin’s surge above $77,000. Altcoins, including Ethereum and Ripple, mirror BTC’s positive outlook, trading near $2,400 and $1.35, respectively.

Week ahead – Fed’s Jackson Hole and Nvidia earnings to dictate markets

Kevin Warsh to make his Jackson Hole debut amid confusing messaging. But a major hawkish surprise unlikely after bond market intervention. Nvidia earnings to also determine market direction as stock rally cools.

$20 billion offered, $2 billion taken: Why Treasury doubled its buyback cap

The US Treasury moved off its own calendar on Wednesday, and that is the part worth sitting with. At 12:32 GMT, the department said it would at least double the size of liquidity support buyback operations in the 10-year to 20-year and 20-year to 30-year sectors, lifting the maximum from $2 billion per operation to at least $4 billion, effective September 9 and running to November 4.