Euro fluctuates without a clear direction in a calm trading session
- The Euro is trading sideways between 1.0900 and 1.0930 after Friday’s rejection at 1.1010.
- The weak German Business climate data confirms the region’s grim economic outlook.
- Investors are growing skeptical about the ECB’s ability to maintain its restrictive policy for too long.
The Euro (EUR) stages a mild recovery on Monday, favoured by a weaker US Dollar and a moderate risk-on sentiment. The pair, however, remains unable to stage a significant rebound after Friday’s reversal and remains at a short distance to the 1.0880 support area.
Eurozone data released on Monday showed that German business confidence deteriorated in December, following two consecutive improvements. The IFO Business Climate Index dropped unexpectedly in December, with the sentiment about the current economic situation and the near-term expectations posting lower levels than in the previous month.
These figures come after the downbeat PMI figures seen late last week and the contracting Gross Domestic Product (GDP) seen earlier this month, confirming the view of an upcoming economic slowdown.
This scenario poses a serious challenge for the European Central Bank (ECB) and disputes the hawkish stance ECB President Christine Lagarde defended on Thursday, following the bank’s monetary policy decision.
Daily digest market movers: Euro recovery attempts falter as Eurozone data disappoints
- The Euro remains capped below 1.0930 after Friday’s reversal at 1.1010, as weak Eurozone data challenges the ECB’s hawkish stance.
- German IFO sentiment Climate Index dropped to 86.4 in December from the downwardly revised 87.2 in November against market expectations of an improvement to 87.8.
- The Current Conditions Index dropped to 88.5 from 89.4. The market consensus anticipated an uptick to 89.5.
- The index gauging German firm’s expectations deteriorated to a reading of 84.3 from 85.1. Investors expected an increase to 85.8.
- On Friday, Eurozone Services and Manufacturing PMIs contracted beyond expectations, suggesting a poor contribution from these two sectors to the region’s GDP growth.
- Earlier this month, the Q3 GDP confirmed that Eurozone economy contracted in the third quarter, with inflation levels cooling faster than expected.
- In light of these figures, the ECB’s “higher for longer” stance is losing credibility in investors’ views and is keeping Euro buyers subdued.
Technical Analysis: Euro corrects lower from 1.1010 resistance area
The Euro was rejected again at the 1.1010 resistance area, and the pair remains unable to put a significant distance from the 1.0900-1.0880 support area despite Monday’s moderate risk-on markets.
The broader trend remains positive, although the pair seems to be losing momentum, with the lack of upside momentum suggesting that further correction is on the cards.
On the downside, a break of the December 14 low at 1.0880 and the 4-hour 100 Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.0870 is likely to increase bearish pressure towards 1.0825 on the way to 1.0730 lows.
On the upside, the Euro should extend beyond intra-day highs at 1.0930 to attempt a retest of the mentioned 1.1010 resistance. Above here, the next targets would be the August high at 1.1060 and the July 24 and 27 high at 1.1150.
Euro price in the last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies in the last 7 days. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | CAD | AUD | JPY | NZD | CHF | |
| USD | -1.50% | -0.93% | -1.58% | -2.18% | -1.46% | -1.71% | -1.41% | |
| EUR | 1.48% | 0.57% | -0.07% | -0.65% | 0.05% | -0.19% | 0.10% | |
| GBP | 0.94% | -0.58% | -0.64% | -1.23% | -0.51% | -0.76% | -0.47% | |
| CAD | 1.56% | 0.08% | 0.64% | -0.59% | 0.13% | -0.12% | 0.17% | |
| AUD | 2.13% | 0.64% | 1.21% | 0.58% | 0.70% | 0.46% | 0.75% | |
| JPY | 1.46% | -0.06% | 0.42% | -0.12% | -0.69% | -0.27% | 0.05% | |
| NZD | 1.68% | 0.20% | 0.76% | 0.12% | -0.47% | 0.24% | 0.29% | |
| CHF | 1.39% | -0.10% | 0.46% | -0.17% | -0.76% | -0.04% | -0.29% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/JPY (quote).
ECB FAQs
What is the ECB and how does it influence the Euro?
The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy for the region.
The ECB primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means keeping inflation at around 2%. Its primary tool for achieving this is by raising or lowering interest rates. Relatively high interest rates will usually result in a stronger Euro and vice versa.
The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.
What is Quantitative Easing (QE) and how does it affect the Euro?
In extreme situations, the European Central Bank can enact a policy tool called Quantitative Easing. QE is the process by which the ECB prints Euros and uses them to buy assets – usually government or corporate bonds – from banks and other financial institutions. QE usually results in a weaker Euro.
QE is a last resort when simply lowering interest rates is unlikely to achieve the objective of price stability. The ECB used it during the Great Financial Crisis in 2009-11, in 2015 when inflation remained stubbornly low, as well as during the covid pandemic.
What is Quantitative tightening (QT) and how does it affect the Euro?
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse of QE. It is undertaken after QE when an economic recovery is underway and inflation starts rising. Whilst in QE the European Central Bank (ECB) purchases government and corporate bonds from financial institutions to provide them with liquidity, in QT the ECB stops buying more bonds, and stops reinvesting the principal maturing on the bonds it already holds. It is usually positive (or bullish) for the Euro.
Author
Guillermo Alcala
FXStreet
Graduated in Communication Sciences at the Universidad del Pais Vasco and Universiteit van Amsterdam, Guillermo has been working as financial news editor and copywriter in diverse Forex-related firms, like FXStreet and Kantox.
