EUR/USD remains depressed near 1.1500 as risk aversion persists

EUR/USD drops for the fourth consecutive day on Friday and nears 1.1500.
Waning hopes of a swift end to the Iran war keep weighing on the Euro.
Price action has broken the bottom of the upward channel, pointing to further downtrend.

Guillermo Alcala FXStreet

The Euro (EUR) is trading lower against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth consecutive day on Friday, changing hands at 1.1520 at the time of writing, down from weekly highs of 1.1640 on Monday. The pressure of higher Oil prices in the Eurozone economy, coupled with waning hopes of a swift end to the Iran war, is acting as a headwind for any significant Euro recovery.

US President Donald Trump provided some hope on Thursday, extending the deadlines to attack Iran’s energy sites into April. Market enthusiasm, however, was short-lived, as the Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon would be considering the deployment of 10,000 additional troops for a ground offensive that would extend the war and keep the Strait of Hormuz closed for an extended period.

In Europe, preliminary Consumer Prices Index data from Spain showed that price pressures accelerated to 3.3% year-on-Year in March, to their highest level in nearly 2 years , from 2.3% in February, providing further reasons for the European Central Bank (ECB) to hike interest rates in April.

Technical Analysis: EUR/USD breaks below the bullish channel

The EUR/USD trades at 1.1521, amid a mildly bearish near-term bias, as the pair slips below the lower boundary of the ascending channel, with price action now below both the channel base, now around 1.1540, and the nearby 1.1575 horizontal resistance.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line has turned negative and remains below its signal, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds in the low-40s, together reinforcing building downside momentum within what is still a broader upward structure.

Bears remain contained in the area of 1.1520 so far, with the March 23 low, at 1.1484 on sight, ahead of the March 18 and 19 lows in the area of 1.1440. On the upside, the mentioned 1.1539 reverse trendline and the 1.1575 intraday level are closing the path towards the weekly highs near 1.1640.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)

(This story was corrected on March 27 at 10:45 GMT to say Spain's inflation reached its highest level in nearly two years in March, instead of a 14-month high, as previously reported.)

Economic Indicator

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (YoY)

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) released by the National Institute of Statistics is a measure of price movements or inflation harmonized across EU Member States. Similar to the national Consumer Price Indices (CPI), the inflation proxy also includes personal computers, new cars and airfares while excluding owner/occupier housing and council tax. Generally, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Euro, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

Economic Indicator

Consumer Price Index (YoY)

The Consumer Price Index released by the National Institute of Statistics is a measure of price movements by the comparison between the retail prices of a representative shopping basket of goods and services. The purchase power of Euro is dragged down by inflation. The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the Euro, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).

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