EUR/USD rebounds as Fed decision nears and US-Iran tensions cap Dollar downside

The Euro (EUR) trims a part of its intraday losses against the US Dollar (USD) on Tuesday as the Greenback loses momentum, with traders repositioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision due on Wednesday, while continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East. At the time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.1707, rebounding from an intraday low of 1.1677.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, is trading around 98.66, easing from a daily high of 98.88, up nearly 0.18% on the day. However, the downside remains limited amid persistent uncertainty surrounding US-Iran tensions and firm US Treasury yields, which continue to underpin the Dollar.

The Fed is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged in the 3.50%-3.75% range, with the outcome largely priced in by markets. Instead, the focus will be on forward guidance, as policymakers navigate risks to both sides of their dual mandate. The recent surge in Oil prices is feeding into inflation expectations, a trend increasingly reflected in recent economic data. This has prompted traders to shift toward a higher-for-longer rate outlook, compared with earlier expectations of two rate cuts before the US-Iran war escalated.

At the same time, traders are pricing in at least two rate hikes by the European Central Bank (ECB) amid mounting inflation risks from higher Oil prices, although the central bank is expected to hold rates steady at 2.00% at Thursday’s meeting as policymakers balance persistent inflation pressures against risks to economic growth, particularly given the Eurozone’s reliance on imported energy.

ECB Bank Lending Survey for the first quarter of 2026, released on Tuesday, showed inflation expectations rising across horizons. Inflation expectations one year ahead rose sharply to 4.0% in March from 2.5% in February, while expectations three years ahead increased to 3.0% from 2.5%, and five-year expectations edged up to 2.4% from 2.3%.

On the geopolitical front, efforts to end the US-Iran war appear to have stalled, with the Strait of Hormuz still largely disrupted, keeping Oil supply tight. Iran is expected to submit a revised peace proposal in the coming days, according to CNN, citing sources, after US President Donald Trump and his national security team expressed skepticism over Tehran’s earlier offer, which deferred nuclear negotiations to a later stage.