- EUR/USD shot to a three-day high on Monday, albeit struggled to make it through the 1.0600 mark.
- Repeated failures near the 50-day SMA warrants caution before positioning for any meaningful gains.
- Break below a two-week-old ascending trend-line would shift the bias in favour of bearish traders.
The EUR/USD pair gained traction for the second successive day on Monday and climbed to a three-day peak, though struggled to capitalize on the move.
A goodish pickup in the US Treasury bond yields assisted the US dollar to reverse an intraday dip to over a one-week low. Apart from this, upbeat US Durable Goods Orders offered additional support to the greenback and capped the EUR/USD pair just ahead of the 1.0600 round-figure mark.
From a technical perspective, the aforementioned handle now coincides with the 50-day SMA and should now act as a pivotal point. Sustained strength beyond would be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and pave the way for an extension of a nearly two-week-old upward trajectory.
The EUR/USD pair might then accelerate the momentum towards the 1.0650 horizontal support breakpoint, now turned resistance, before aiming to reclaim the 1.0700 mark. The next relevant hurdle is pegged near the 1.0745-1.0750 area ahead of the May high, around the 1.0780-1.0785 zone.
Meanwhile, the recent bounce from the vicinity of mid-1.0300s, or the YTD low has been along an upward-sloping trend-line. The said support, currently around the 1.0535-1.0530 region, should continue to protect the immediate downside, which if broken might prompt some technical selling.
The subsequent fall has the potential to drag spot prices towards the 1.0500 psychological mark, which is closely followed by support near the 1.0480 region. Some follow-through selling would shift the bias back in favour of bearish traders and make the EUR/USD pair vulnerable.
EUR/USD 4-hour chart
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Key levels to watch
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