EUR/USD consolidates its losses near 1.0800 ahead of Eurozone CPI, Fed rate decision

EUR/USD holds steady around 1.0815 in Wednesday’s early Asian session.
Germany unexpectedly shank by 0.1% in the second quarter.
The Fed is likely to hold rates steady at its July meeting on Wednesday.

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

The EUR/USD pair consolidates its losses around 1.0815 during the early Asian session on Wednesday. The major pair edges lower amid risk-aversion and weaker-than-expected preliminary Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2 from Germany. Traders prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday.

The German economy fell back into contraction in the second quarter, contracting by 0.1% QoQ after expanding 0.2% in Q1, the first estimate data published by Destatis showed on Tuesday. This figure came in weaker than the expected 0.1% increase. Meanwhile, the annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rate dropped by 0.1% in Q2, compared with a 0.2% contraction in Q1 and the 0% forecast. The Euro (EUR) exerted some selling pressure on the downbeat German GDP data.

However, the Eurozone economy expanded by 0.3% in the three months to the end of June, above the market consensus of a 0.2% increase on a quarterly basis. The preliminary inflation data in the broader euro area and Germany’s Retail Sales will be released later on Wednesday. These readings could offer some hints about September's rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB).

Across the pond, the Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady at a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday. Nonetheless, the markets widely anticipate the US central bank to start easing its policy at its following meeting in September as inflation easing faster than estimated in June. "At the moment, a modest cut of 25 basis points in September seems likely. If that goes well, we could even see two additional 25 basis point cuts before 2024 comes to an end," said Jacob Channel, chief economist at LendingTree.

Euro FAQs

What is the Euro?

The Euro is the currency for the 20 European Union countries that belong to the Eurozone. It is the second most heavily traded currency in the world behind the US Dollar. In 2022, it accounted for 31% of all foreign exchange transactions, with an average daily turnover of over $2.2 trillion a day. EUR/USD is the most heavily traded currency pair in the world, accounting for an estimated 30% off all transactions, followed by EUR/JPY (4%), EUR/GBP (3%) and EUR/AUD (2%).

What is the ECB and how does it impact the Euro?

The European Central Bank (ECB) in Frankfurt, Germany, is the reserve bank for the Eurozone. The ECB sets interest rates and manages monetary policy. The ECB’s primary mandate is to maintain price stability, which means either controlling inflation or stimulating growth. Its primary tool is the raising or lowering of interest rates. Relatively high interest rates – or the expectation of higher rates – will usually benefit the Euro and vice versa. The ECB Governing Council makes monetary policy decisions at meetings held eight times a year. Decisions are made by heads of the Eurozone national banks and six permanent members, including the President of the ECB, Christine Lagarde.

How does inflation data impact the value of the Euro?

Eurozone inflation data, measured by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), is an important econometric for the Euro. If inflation rises more than expected, especially if above the ECB’s 2% target, it obliges the ECB to raise interest rates to bring it back under control. Relatively high interest rates compared to its counterparts will usually benefit the Euro, as it makes the region more attractive as a place for global investors to park their money.

How does economic data influence the value of the Euro?

Data releases gauge the health of the economy and can impact on the Euro. Indicators such as GDP, Manufacturing and Services PMIs, employment, and consumer sentiment surveys can all influence the direction of the single currency. A strong economy is good for the Euro. Not only does it attract more foreign investment but it may encourage the ECB to put up interest rates, which will directly strengthen the Euro. Otherwise, if economic data is weak, the Euro is likely to fall. Economic data for the four largest economies in the euro area (Germany, France, Italy and Spain) are especially significant, as they account for 75% of the Eurozone’s economy.

How does the Trade Balance impact the Euro?

Another significant data release for the Euro is the Trade Balance. This indicator measures the difference between what a country earns from its exports and what it spends on imports over a given period. If a country produces highly sought after exports then its currency will gain in value purely from the extra demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase these goods. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens a currency and vice versa for a negative balance.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

GBP/USD extends losses toward 1.3200 after weak UK PMI data

GBP/USD loses further ground toward 1.3200 in the European session on Tuesday. Political uncertainty in the United Kingdom weighs on the British Pound, alongside weak business PMI data for June. Meanwhile, the US Dollar capitalizes on the risk-off mood and hawkish Fed bets ahead of the US PMI release.

EUR/USD stays weak below 1.1450 after German, EU PMI data

EUR/USD struggles to stage a rebound and trades below 1.1450 in the European session on Tuesday, after the data from Germany showed that the Composite PMI declined to 48 in June from 48.8 May, while that from the Eurozone rose to 49.5. Meanwhile, the US Dollar holds the upper hand against the Euro amid risk-off sentiment and a hawkish Fed outlook, leaving the pair on the defensive. Traders now await the US PMI data.

Gold drops to nearly two-week low, seems vulnerable amid Fed hike bets, bullish USD

Gold adds to its Asian session losses, and drops to a nearly two-week low, around the $4,115 region in the last hour amid a bullish US Dollar. Despite positive signals from US-Iran peace talks, widespread skepticism remains toward a final deal. This helps the USD in preserving its recent strong gains to the highest level since May 2025.

Bears cap Solana below $75 as ETF, retail demand wanes

Solana edges below $72 risking a third consecutive day of losses that could erase the 5% gains from Friday. SOL-focused Exchange Traded Funds reflect muted demand from institutional investors following a minor recovery last week. Meanwhile, retail trading activity hints at a bearish positional buildup.

Big day of PMIs ahead

In the euro area, June flash PMIs are released. Most respondents will likely have answered after the US-Iran deal, yet the impact of lower oil prices is unlikely to already show up in activity data. We expect manufacturing to edge down to 50.9 (May: 51.6), while we expect services to see a modest improvement to 48.8 (May: 47.7).

Regime change: Inside Kevin Warsh's first move to make the Fed unreadable on purpose

The rate did not move. That was the least interesting thing about Kevin Warsh's first meeting in charge of the Fed. The FOMC held its benchmark at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting, exactly as priced, and then the new chair used his first press conference to dismantle the machinery the market has leaned on for a decade.