ECB to raise deposit rate to 3% – Commerzbank

At its meeting on 8 September, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to raise its three key interest rates by 75 basis points (the deposit rate is now 0.75%). Economists at Commerzbank continue to expect it to raise its deposit rate to 3.0% by March next year.

ECB to pause the rate hike process in spring

“We expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate to 3% by the first quarter of next year. Signals from the ECB that it wants to reach the neutral interest rate by the end of the year (which it now probably sees at 2%) and is prepared to go beyond it thereafter speak in favour of noticeable rate hikes in the near future. This willingness is likely to increase in the coming months because the central bank is likely to raise its inflation projection noticeably.”

“From next spring, the ECB is likely to suspend the interest rate hike process for roughly one year, since on the one hand the recession expected by many should then be clearly visible in the GDP data and on the other hand the deposit rate at 3% should be noticeably above the neutral level from the ECB's point of view.”