Canada: Trade figures for April may be poised for a setback – Scotiabank

Analysts at Scotiabank are out with their expectations on today’s Canadian trade balance data due to be reported at 1230 GMT.

Key Quotes:

“… trade figures for April may be poised for a setback if for no other reason than the fact the prior month was so strong. That could still mean that the dollar value of the trade deficit narrows and I'm guesstimating -$3 billion for the monthly balance. 

The trade balance may improve as import growth may be more vulnerable to the downside than export growth. Recall that export volumes were up by 3% m/m in March for the strongest gain since July 2016 while import volumes were up by 5.2% for the strongest gain since July 2009. Nevertheless, the trends in both-especially imports are likely to remain constructive. Imports may rise in the next report as companies attempt to front-load order books ahead of tariffs that Canada has imposed upon a variety of US goods that become effective on July 1st (Canada Day!).”