CAD: Don't rule out a BoC cut today – ING

FXStreet Insights Team FXStreet

Today’s Bank of Canada meeting has been a very hard one to call, ING's commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.

A hold may well be accompanied by dovish language

"Consensus was slightly favouring a 25bp cut before aligning with market pricing for a hold over the past couple of days. The CAD OIS curve currently embeds around 25% probability of a cut today, which to us looks too conservative considering the ever-rising downside risks to the Canadian economy, especially after Trump hiked metal tariffs, which damage Canada more than any other country."

"We think this meeting is a coin toss. We are very marginally favouring a cut purely based on the economic justification, but admit that the BoC might send an excessively dovish signal by cutting when markets are pricing in only 5bp."

"Anyway, a hold may well be accompanied by dovish language, and the market’s pricing for the July meeting (-16bp) and year-end (-38bp) both look too conservative to us. The Canadian dollar is one of our least favourite currencies at the moment, also considering the asymmetrical correlation with US economic woes compared to other G10 currencies."

Author

FXStreet Insights Team

FXStreet

The FXStreet Insights Team is a group of journalists that handpicks selected market observations published by renowned experts. The content includes notes by commercial as well as additional insights by internal and external analysts.

EUR/USD flirts with daily highs, retargets 1.1900

EUR/USD regains upside traction, returning to the 1.1880 zone and refocusing its attention to the key 1.1900 barrier. The pair’s slight gains comes against the backdrop of a humble decline in the US Dollar as investors continue to assess the latest US CPI readings and the potential Fed’s rate path.

GBP/USD remains well bid around 1.3650

GBP/USD maintains its upside momentum in place, hovering around daily highs near 1.3650 and setting aside part of the recent three-day drop. Cable’s improved sentiment comes on the back of the Greenback’s irresolute price action, while recent hawkish comments from the BoE’s Pill also collaborate with the uptick.

Gold clings to gains just above $5,000/oz

Gold is reclaiming part of the ground lost on Wednesday’s marked decline, as bargain-hunters keep piling up and lifting prices past the key $5,000 per troy ounce. The precious metal’s move higher is also underpinned by the slight pullback in the US Dollar and declining US Treasury yields across the curve.

Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP in choppy price action, weighed down by falling institutional interest

Bitcoin's upside remains largely constrained amid weak technicals and declining institutional interest. Ethereum trades sideways above $1,900 support with the upside capped below $2,000 amid ETF outflows.

Week ahead – Data blitz, Fed Minutes and RBNZ decision in the spotlight

US GDP and PCE inflation are main highlights, plus the Fed minutes. UK and Japan have busy calendars too with focus on CPI. Flash PMIs for February will also be doing the rounds. RBNZ meets, is unlikely to follow RBA’s hawkish path.

Ripple Price Forecast: XRP potential bottom could be in sight

Ripple edges up above the intraday low of $1.35 at the time of writing on Friday amid mixed price actions across the crypto market. The remittance token failed to hold support at $1.40 the previous day, reflecting risk-off sentiment amid a decline in retail and institutional sentiment.