British Pound approaches 210.00 vs weak Yen as range play remains intact

GBP/JPY gains some follow-through traction on Monday amid a combination of supporting factors.
Japan’s fiscal woes undermine the JPY, while a modest USD downtick benefits the British Pound.
Intervention risks could limit JPY losses as traders now look to BoE Bailey’s speech later this week.

Haresh Menghani FXStreet

The GBP/JPY cross attracts some follow-through buyers at the start of a new week, climbing back closer to the 210.00 psychological mark during the early European session amid a combination of supporting factors. Spot prices, however, remain confined in a familiar range held over the past week or so, making it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) continues with its relative underperformance amid concerns about Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policies and massive public debt. The British Pound (GBP), on the other hand, draws support from UK Chancellor John Healey's commitment to strict fiscal discipline during his upcoming debut budget on October 28 and firming expectations for a rate hike by the Bank of England (BoE) in November. Apart from this, a softer US Dollar (USD) further benefits the GBP, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor acting as a tailwind for the GBP/JPY cross.

Meanwhile, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has noted that the broader economic outlook remains too uncertain to firmly commit to an aggressive multi-hike cycle. In contrast, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda stated that the policy phase has shifted toward pre-emptively fighting inflation risks rather than just trying to hit the 2% target. Moreover, an increase in Japan’s real wages for the eighth straight month reaffirmed bets for further BoJ policy tightening. This, along with looking intervention risks, could limit deeper JPY losses and keep a lid on any meaningful upside for the GBP/JPY cross.

Traders might also refrain from placing aggressive directional bets and opt to wait for Bailey's speech at the annual meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok this week. Apart from this, comments from a slew of BoE MPC members, along with the monthly UK GDP report on Thursday, will be looked at for short-term trading opportunities. Nevertheless, the fundamental backdrop warrants some caution for GBP/JPY bulls.

Economic Indicator

BoE's Governor Bailey speech

Andrew Bailey is the Bank of England's Governor. He took office on March 16th, 2020, at the end of Mark Carney's term. Bailey was serving as the Chief Executive of the Financial Conduct Authority before being designated. This British central banker was also the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England from April 2013 to July 2016 and the Chief Cashier of the Bank of England from January 2004 until April 2011.

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