BoJ to raise rate to 1.25% in September — Reuters poll

Lallalit Srijandorn FXStreet

According to August 17-24 survey in a Reuters poll, 57% of economists expected the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise its interest rate in September, a sharp turnaround from a July poll.

A minority, 10 of 58, saw it to follow with another hike to 1.50% in either October or December.

Nearly two-thirds of analysts, 35 of 54, saw the policy rate to reach at least 1.5—% by end-March next year, three months earlier than projected in July's poll. Around 60% foresaw the rate reaching at least 1.75% by end-Q3 2027.

Half of 36 respondents who answered an extra question said 1.75% would be the terminal rate compared with just 19% last month. The share of those choosing "2% or above" rose to 36% from 23% in July.

Market reaction

At the time of writing, the USD/JPY pair is down 0.17% on the day at 158.92.

Bank of Japan FAQs

What is the Bank of Japan?

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) is the Japanese central bank, which sets monetary policy in the country. Its mandate is to issue banknotes and carry out currency and monetary control to ensure price stability, which means an inflation target of around 2%.

What has been the Bank of Japan’s policy?

The Bank of Japan embarked in an ultra-loose monetary policy in 2013 in order to stimulate the economy and fuel inflation amid a low-inflationary environment. The bank’s policy is based on Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), or printing notes to buy assets such as government or corporate bonds to provide liquidity. In 2016, the bank doubled down on its strategy and further loosened policy by first introducing negative interest rates and then directly controlling the yield of its 10-year government bonds. In March 2024, the BoJ lifted interest rates, effectively retreating from the ultra-loose monetary policy stance.

How do Bank of Japan’s decisions influence the Japanese Yen?

The Bank’s massive stimulus caused the Yen to depreciate against its main currency peers. This process exacerbated in 2022 and 2023 due to an increasing policy divergence between the Bank of Japan and other main central banks, which opted to increase interest rates sharply to fight decades-high levels of inflation. The BoJ’s policy led to a widening differential with other currencies, dragging down the value of the Yen. This trend partly reversed in 2024, when the BoJ decided to abandon its ultra-loose policy stance.

Why did the Bank of Japan decide to start unwinding its ultra-loose policy?

A weaker Yen and the spike in global energy prices led to an increase in Japanese inflation, which exceeded the BoJ’s 2% target. The prospect of rising salaries in the country – a key element fuelling inflation – also contributed to the move.

Author

Lallalit Srijandorn

FXStreet

Lallalit Srijandorn is a Parisian at heart. She has lived in France since 2019 and now becomes a digital entrepreneur based in Paris and Bangkok.

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