Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH risks distribution near realized price, $2,388 resistance kicks in

Ethereum price today: $2,310

• Ethereum has recovered its realized price, a level that has historically acted as resistance during weak price uptrends.
• US investors' sentiment around ETH has improved over the past few days.
• ETH could face a rejection at the $2,388 resistance level for the second time this month.

Ethereum (ETH) briefly recovered the $2,400 level on Tuesday, its highest level since February 1, following the latest developments in peace talks between the US and Iran.

The US military blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and reports of a new round of negotiations in the coming days have lifted risk sentiment.

With the latest move, ETH is trading near its realized price or the onchain average cost basis of investors at $2,308. Historically, the realized price has acted as resistance when the uptrend is weak, as some investors often distribute after breaking even.

However, if geopolitical pressure eases and the market outlook for risk assets brightens, ETH could establish the level as support.

Meanwhile, interest from US investors has continued improving. The Coinbase Premium Index, which measures the difference between ETH's prices on Coinbase and Binance, has remained above 0 over the past few days.

US spot ETH exchange-traded funds (ETFs) also recorded a third consecutive day of net inflows on Monday, modestly pulling in $9.4 million. In comparison, Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs posted $291 million in net outflows, per SoSoValue data.

On the derivatives side, ETH is facing pressure after funding rates plunged back into negative territory, suggesting most traders are leaning bearish.

Funding rates are periodic payments between traders in perpetual futures markets to help anchor the price of a derivatives contract to its underlying spot counterpart. Positive values mean long traders pay short traders, indicating dominant bullish positioning and vice versa for negative values.

ETH is rapidly responding to the move, easing from above $2,400 to under $2,320 at the time of writing.

Ethereum Price Forecast: ETH eyes rejection at $2,388 resistance

ETH is facing a potential rejection near the $2,388 resistance for the second time in a month. The barrier is strengthened by the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,376. A daily close above this cluster would open the way toward $2,746 and then $3,412.

On the downside, first support emerges at the horizontal level around $2,211, reinforced by the nearby 20-day and 50-day EMAs, with stronger demand expected near $2,108; a break below there would expose deeper supports at $1,909 and $1,741, ahead of $1,524 and $1,405.

Momentum remains favorable, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) near 60 and the Stochastic Oscillator (Stoch) hovering in overbought territory, hinting that bulls retain control but may face some hesitation as price approaches the next resistance band.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)