Bitcoin's structure weakens as momentum shifts toward sellers

Bitcoin is trading near $74,000, having lost almost 9% from last week's post-election peak near $81,000. The recent decline has materially weakened the short-term technical structure and shifted momentum in favor of sellers.

The broader technical picture currently favors caution rather than aggressive dip-buying.

RSI near oversold territory

The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) has fallen to 34.01, its lowest reading since the previous correction cycle.

While an RSI below 30 is traditionally considered oversold, markets rarely reverse simply because they become oversold. In strong downtrends, RSI can remain compressed for extended periods while prices continue lower.

The current reading suggests selling momentum has accelerated significantly, but it does not yet signal capitulation.

Similarly, the Stochastic RSI Fast sits at 11.18, highlighting extremely weak short-term momentum and confirming that buyers remain largely absent.

MACD confirms bearish momentum

The MACD (12,26) currently prints -1,765.21, maintaining an active sell signal.

More importantly, the indicator continues to trend deeper into negative territory rather than stabilizing.

Combined with a Momentum (10) reading of -3,163.59 and Bull-Bear Power at -4,811.65, the data suggests that market participants are still reducing exposure rather than rebuilding long positions.

This confirms that the recent decline is not merely a pause in an uptrend. It reflects genuine deterioration in momentum.

Moving averages paint a bearish picture

Perhaps the most concerning signal comes from Bitcoin's moving average structure.

Current daily readings show:

• 10-Day EMA: $76,452.
• 20-Day EMA: $77,991.
• 50-Day EMA: $79,187.
• 100-Day EMA: $77,539.
• 200-Day EMA: $76,435.

Bitcoin is currently trading below virtually every major exponential and simple moving average monitored by institutional traders.

Technical summary readings show:

• 14 Sell
• 9 Neutral
• 3 Buy

Meanwhile, moving averages alone register a "Strong Sell" signal with 13 sell indications versus only one buy.

That type of alignment typically occurs during periods of trend transition or deeper corrections rather than healthy bull market expansions.

Why the $75,000 support zone may not hold

A significant portion of the market continues to focus on the $73,500-$75,000 area as a major support cluster.

While that zone remains important, there is a growing risk that traders are overestimating its importance.

Support levels are not created by price history alone.

They require willing buyers.

Currently, several factors are working against that support:

• More than $1.28 billion in spot ETF outflows.
• Persistent liquidation pressure.
• Weakening risk appetite across global markets.
• Bearish momentum indicators.
• Negative moving average alignment.

Under those conditions, support zones often weaken faster than expected.

Understanding the $60,000 scenario

A move toward $60,000-$65,000 should not be interpreted as a collapse of Bitcoin's long-term bull market thesis.

Instead, it would represent a broader market reset.

The post-election rally toward $81,000 was heavily fueled by leverage and speculative positioning. Although the recent liquidation cascade removed a portion of that excess, derivatives markets remain substantially larger than historical averages.

A decline toward $60,000 would likely:

• Flush remaining leveraged long positions.
• Reset futures funding rates.
• Reduce speculative excess across altcoins.
• Allow institutional buyers to rebuild positions at lower valuations.

Importantly, Bitcoin would still remain well above previous cycle highs even after such a correction.

From a macro perspective, that type of reset could ultimately strengthen the next expansion cycle.

Key levels going forward

Immediate resistance:

• $76,450 (200-Day EMA)
• $78,000
• $81,000

Near-term support:

• $73,500 flash-crash low
• $70,000 psychological support

Potential repricing zone:

• $65,000-$68,000

Full leverage reset zone:

• $60,000-$62,000

Technical verdict

The current setup does not support the narrative that Bitcoin is simply experiencing a routine pullback before resuming its uptrend.

RSI at 34.01, a MACD reading of -1,765.21, deeply negative momentum metrics, and a broad "Strong Sell" alignment across moving averages suggest that downside risks remain elevated.

While a short-term relief bounce is always possible after such an aggressive liquidation event, the technical evidence currently favors continued consolidation or additional downside exploration before a durable bottom can form.

The question for investors is no longer whether leverage is being unwound.

The question is whether enough leverage has already been removed, or whether the market still needs a deeper correction toward the $60,000-$65,000 range to fully reset expectations and establish the foundation for the next sustainable bull phase.