Bitcoin beats September's curse: Is there enough demand for October?

Bitcoin (BTC) closed September with a 6.33% gain, breaking away from a month that has averaged losses since 2013. The buying that carried the rally, however, has thinned as October begins.

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) ended a 9-day inflow streak on Wednesday, while long-term holders stepped up their selling. Meanwhile, a large wall of sell orders sits just above the current price.

September broke its losing habit

Since 2013, September has handed Bitcoin an average loss of 2.41%, Coinglass data shows. Yet, the month has now closed higher for 4 straight years, from 2023 through 2026.

Bitcoin Monthly Returns Since 2013. Source: Coinglass

Bitcoin also outpaced traditional assets this time. Santiment noted that gold fell more than 6% in September, while the S&P 500 saw a modest decline. 

CryptoQuant reads the gains as the start of a new bull market. It said last week's close above the 365-day moving average confirmed the shift. Its Bull Score Index now sits at 90 out of 100.

October history adds to that case. Bitcoin has finished 10 of the last 13 Octobers higher, with a median gain of 12.73%. Whether the pattern repeats depends on who keeps buying, and the latest flow data shows fewer buyers.

The ETF bid faded before the month ended

US spot Bitcoin ETFs drew $998.95 million on September 21, according to SoSoValue. This marked the largest inflow day in almost a year.

Inflows then shrank in the succeeding sessions, falling to $31.07 million by September 28. On September 30, the funds posted $148.69 million in net outflows, and none of the 12 ETFs recorded an inflow. 

The slowdown came days after crypto investment products logged their largest weekly inflows of 2026.

Bitcoin ETF Daily Net Flows Through September 30. Source: SoSoValue

The weaker ETF flows mirror a broader drop in demand. CryptoQuant estimates apparent spot demand shrank by 170,000 BTC over 30 days. In addition, futures demand growth slowed from 164,000 BTC on September 14 to 16,000 BTC.

Trading volume has stayed low as well. Glassnode puts combined spot and ETF volume near $6.4 billion a day, at the low end of its post-launch range.

Long-term holders started cashing in

As new demand cooled, existing holders sold into strength. Holders realized 25,700 BTC in profit on September 22, the largest single day of 2026, CryptoQuant data shows.

Long-term holders, who have held their coins for over 155 days, played a growing role. Glassnode found their share of all realized profit rose from 34% to 55% in the week to September 29.

CryptoQuant also flagged traders' unrealized profit margin at 33%, its highest since December 2024. 

“Historically, stretched margins have preceded selling and downward price pressure,” the report said.

Still, Glassnode noted that overall profit-taking remains well below the levels seen at the 2024 and 2025 tops. 

A sell wall at $85,000 sets October's first test

BTC traded at $84,198 at press time, up 0.9% over 24 hours. Just above that price, Glassnode tracks a wall of sell orders between $85,000 and $85,500 on Binance. The wall appeared on September 24 and has since tripled in size.

Bitcoin Price Performance on October 1. Source: BeInCrypto Markets

On the downside, CryptoQuant places first support at the 365-day moving average near $80,000. Below that sits Glassnode's True Market Mean at $77,200, an estimate of the average price active investors paid.

For Glassnode, a confirmed breakout needs ETF inflows to return and volume to rise as price clears the wall.