New ECB call: No cuts in 2027

Danske Research Team Danske Bank A/S

We revise our ECB call and no longer expect the ECB to cut rates in 2027. We still expect a final 25bp hike in September, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, but now expect the ECB to keep it there throughout 2027 rather than cut it back to 2.00%.

The change reflects a more resilient growth backdrop than we previously assumed. While stronger growth removes the need for cuts next year, contained underlying inflation limits the need for more than one additional hike. We see the risks to our call as balanced.

Download The Full Research Euro Area

Author

Danske Research Team

Danske Bank A/S

Research is part of Danske Bank Markets and operate as Danske Bank's research department. The department monitors financial markets and economic trends of relevance to Danske Bank Markets and its clients.

GBP/USD remains capped at 1.3600, awaits key US event risks

GBP/USD is consolidating in Friday's European trading after facing rejection at 1.3600 earlier on. Traders remain on the sidelines and refrain from placing fresh bets on the major ahead of the critical US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision and Fed Chair Warsh's debut at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Both events could ramp up market volatility.

EUR/USD hovers around 1.1650 ahead of NFP revision, Warsh

EUR/USD is treading water at around 1.1650 in the European session on Friday. The pair faces headwinds as the US Dollar clings to its recent recovery ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls benchmark revision and Fed Chair Warsh's Jackson Hole speech. However, the downside appears cushioned by hawkish ECB expectations.

Gold holds gains above $4,600 as bullish bias prevails

Gold extends its gains for the second successive day, trading around $4,610 during the European hours. The price of the precious metal is remaining within the ascending channel pattern, suggesting a persistent bullish bias. The XAU/USD pair is retaining a constructive bullish bias as spot holds above both the nine-period and 50-period EMAs, keeping the short- and medium-term trends aligned to the upside.

Hyperliquid rally stretches thin amid treasury growth, CFTC innovation push

Hyperliquid (HYPE) is down 2% on Friday after reaching a record high of 86.75 the previous day. Nasdaq-listed Hyperliquid Strategies Inc raised almost $650 million in an equity deal to increase its HYPE holding to 29.3 million tokens. Hyperliquid is also pushing to expand its perpetual futures markets in the US.

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September. The Jackson Hole symposium, held from August 27 to 29, has the official theme “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy.”

Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole dilemma: Say too much, too little, or just enough

Kevin Warsh is preparing to deliver his first Jackson Hole speech as Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair on Friday, and expectations extend well beyond whether interest rates will be raised or left unchanged in September.