EUR/USD outlook: Consolidates above key supports ahead of US inflation data

Slobodan Drvenica Windsor Brokers

EUR/USD

EURUSD remains in extended consolidation under new 3 ½ month high (1.1711) with action holding above broken Fibo barrier at 1.1648 (61.8% of 1.1849/1.1324 descend) that maintains bullish bias (despite initial negative signals from long upper shadows on Thu/Fri daily candles) and keeps the upside in focus.

Daily studies keep strong positive momentum, with multiple MA bull-crosses and converged 10/200DMA on track to form golden cross, underpinning the action.

Dips should ideally hold above Fibo support at 1.1648 and should not exceed 200DMA (1.1627) to mark a healthy correction before larger bulls regain full control for fresh extension higher, targeting 1.1725 (Fibo 76.4%) and 1.1800 zone (early May lower platform).

Release of US July PCE Index (closely monitored by Fed) will be key event today, along with Friday’s speech of Fed Chief Warsh in Jackson Hole Symposium, which are expected to provide more details about Fed’s policy trajectory in the near term.

The single currency would benefit from softer inflation numbers and dovish stance of the central bank, while higher than expected numbers in July would provide fresh boost to US dollar.

Res: 1.1687; 1.1711; 1.1725; 1.1800.
Sup: 1.1648; 1.1627; 1.1614; 1.1586.

Author

Slobodan Drvenica

Windsor Brokers

Industry veteran with over 22 years’ experience, Slobodan Drvenica joined Windsor Brokers in 1995 when he was an active trader for more than 10 years, managing the trading desk and own account departments.

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