Forex Forecast Polls
The Forex Forecast is a currency sentiment tool that highlights our selected experts' near and medium term mood and calculates trends according to Friday's 15:00 GMT price. The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
Weekly Forecast
EUR/USD: Bulls pray for a dovish Fed Premium
EUR/USD has finally taken a breather after a pretty energetic climb. The pair broke above 1.1680 in the second half of the week, reaching its highest levels in around two months before running into some selling pressure.
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling retains bullish bias ahead of Fed verdict Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) recovery gathered steam against the US Dollar (USD), driving GBP/USD to fresh five-week highs above the 1.3350 level.
Crypto Today: Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP pare gains despite increasing hopes of upcoming Fed rate cut
Bitcoin (BTC) is steadying above $91,000 at the time of writing on Friday. Resistance at $94,150 capped recovery on Wednesday, but in the meantime, bulls have contained downside risks above $90,000.
Week ahead – Rate cut or market shock? The Fed decides
Fed rate cut widely expected; dot plot and overall meeting rhetoric also matter. Risk appetite is supported by Fed rate cut expectations; cryptos show signs of life. RBA, BoC and SNB also meet; chances of surprises are relatively low.
US Dollar: The Fed will make it… or break it Premium
Despite the humble recovery seen in the latter part of the week, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained well on the defensive, breaking below its 99.00 support to clinch new multi-week troughs. The move has also breached its critical 200-day SMA around 99.50, potentially leading to further losses in the short term.
Gold: Bullish momentum fades despite broad USD weakness Premium
After rising more than 3.5% in the previous week, Gold (XAU/USD) has entered a consolidation phase and fluctuated at around $4,200.
WHAT IS THE FOREX FORECAST POLL?
The Forex Forecast Poll is a sentiment tool that highlights near- and medium-term price expectations from leading market experts.
- Unique sentiment indicator with a 5-year history
- For 10 currency pairs (EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, AUDUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, GBPJPY, EURJPY, EURGBP)
- Survey conducted every Friday and published at 15:00 GMT
- Serves all time horizons: 1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter - includes an average price for each time horizon
- Followed by traders, market commentators as well as academics
The #FXpoll is not to be taken as signal or as final target, but as an exchange rates heat map of where sentiment and expectations are going.
HOW TO READ THE GRAPHS?
Besides the table with all participants’ individual prediction, a graphic representation aggregates and visualizes the data: the Bullish/Bearish/Sideways line shows the percentage of our contributors on each of these outlook biases.
This graph is available for each time horizon (1 week, 1 month, 1 quarter). We also indicate the average price forecast as well as the average bias.
WHY SHOULD I USE IT?
Our unique Forex Forecast poll offers you:
- A sentiment indicator which delivers actionable price levels, not merely “mood” or “positioning” indications. Traders can check if there is unanimity among the surveyed experts - if there is excessive speculator sentiment driving a market - or if there are divergences among them. When sentiment is not at extremes, traders get actionable price targets to trade upon. When there is deviation between actual market rate and value reflected in forecasted rate, there is usually an opportunity to enter the market.
- No lag in the data: Contrary to other indicators, there is no delay.
- A very useful tool to combine with other types of analysis of technical nature or based on fundamental macro data, like trading positions, rates table or live chart.
- Significant sentiment data, based on a representative sample of 25 to 50 leading trading advisors for 5 years. Do not follow a single guru but rather a balanced group of well chosen experts. The Forex Forecast Poll offers a condensed version of several expert's opinions. Only outlooks are considered that have been committed to publication and therefore have an influence on the market.
- A tool for Contrarian thinking: People instinctively follow the impulses of the crowd. Sentiment indicators, in turn, lead to “contrarian” thinking. You can read sentiment extremes and avoid being one of the herd. Contrast own opinions and price outlook with a group of leading trading advisors and money managers.
- A tool to build strategies upon prediction data: Find patterns data for instance if a trend is gaining or losing energy.
| EUR/USD Forecast | GBP/USD Forecast | USD/JPY Forecast | AUD/USD Forecast |
| USD/CAD Forecast | GBP/JPY Forecast | NZD/USD Forecast | EUR/JPY Forecast |