Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 3 - Gold to Silver Ratio
Gold Forecast and News
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
From a technical perspective, the XAU/USD, so far, has been struggling to make it through the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart. The said barrier is currently pegged near the $2,345 region and should now act as a key pivotal point amid mixed oscillators on the daily chart. Meanwhile, a sustained strength beyond will be seen as a fresh trigger for bullish traders and lift the Gold price to the next relevant hurdle near the $2,371-2,372 region. The subsequent move up could extend further towards the $2,400 round figure en route to the all-time peak, around the $2,431-2,432 area touched earlier this month.
On the flip side, bearish traders are likely to wait for some follow-through selling and acceptance below the $2,300 mark before placing fresh bets. The Gold price might then extend the corrective decline further towards the $2,260-2,255 intermediate support before eventually dropping to the $2,225 area and the $2,200-2,190 region, representing the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA).
Fundamental Overview
Gold price (XAU/USD) edges higher during the Asian session on Friday, albeit lacks follow-through buying and remains below the overnight swing high. As investors look past the weaker US GDP print, growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay cutting interest rates amid still sticky inflation helps revive the US Dollar (USD) demand. This, along with a generally positive tone around the equity markets, turns out to be a key factor acting as a headwind for the safe-haven precious metal.
The downside for the Gold price, however, remains cushioned as the USD bulls might prefer to wait for more cues about the Fed's rate-cut path before placing fresh bets. Hence, the focus remains glued to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. The crucial inflation data will play a key role in influencing the Fed's future policy decision, which, in turn, will drive the USD demand and determine the next leg of a directional move for the non-yielding yellow metal.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: Strength of $2,300 support is an encouraging sign for bulls Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) price started the week under heavy bearish pressure and registered its largest one-day loss of the year on Monday. The pair managed to stage a rebound in the second half of the week but closed in negative territory. The US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy announcements and April labor market data from the US could drive XAU/USD’s action next week.
Metals Big Picture
METALS BULLISH THEMES
METALS BEARISH THEMES
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD edges lower toward 1.0700 post-US PCE
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure but manages to hold above 1.0700 in the American session on Friday. The US Dollar (USD) gathers strength against its rivals after the stronger-than-forecast PCE inflation data, not allowing the pair to gain traction.
GBP/USD retreats to 1.2500 on renewed USD strength
GBP/USD lost its traction and turned negative on the day near 1.2500. Following the stronger-than-expected PCE inflation readings from the US, the USD stays resilient and makes it difficult for the pair to gather recovery momentum.
Japanese Yen trades just shy of 157.00 versus the USD
The Japanese Yen weakens across the board after BoJ announced its policy decision. A shortlived spike in the Yen may be testament to an attempt by the Japanese authorities to intervene. US PCE Price Index shows higher-than-expected inflation but does little to impact USD/JPY which almost touches 157.00.
Gold struggles to hold above $2,350 following US inflation
Gold turned south and declined toward $2,340, erasing a large portion of its daily gains, as the USD benefited from PCE inflation data. The benchmark 10-year US yield, however, stays in negative territory and helps XAU/USD limit its losses.
WTI edges lower to near $83.50 amid a weaker demand outlook following US GDP
The WTI price depreciates on a weaker demand outlook following US GDP data released on Thursday. US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said that US GDP growth for Q1 could be revised higher as more data becomes available. Israel intensifies air strikes on Rafah, disregarding cautions from allies regarding the risk of significant civilian casualties.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 XAU/USD forecast!
2024 FORECAST FOR XAU/USD
In the XAU/USD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Eren Sengezer, notes that Gold carries its bullish potential into early 2024 on prospects of a looser Fed policy, lower US bond yields and a weaker USD. A downturn in the global economy, however, could weigh on demand and limit the precious metal’s gains. A lack of progress in the Fed’s efforts to lower inflation, on the other hand, could cause XAU/USD to turn south. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR XAU/USD
The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the Israel-Hamas dispute in 2023 underscored Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in uncertain times. Further escalation in the Middle East or a resurgence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may push Gold prices higher.
A potential re-election of former President Donald Trump could involve a 10% tariff on foreign goods and a four-year plan to reduce essential Chinese imports. This could complicate the Federal Reserve's task of lowering inflation to the 2% target and strain relations with China, negatively affecting Gold's demand outlook.
Gold/Silver Ratio
This ratio normally goes well during risk aversion, while it falls off during times of risk-on. If this ratio is about to turn, or at key levels where it could turn, the
trader looks to the Equity indices if the risk has indeed been on and if it is about to turn as well.
When the ratio is rising, it means gold is outperforming silver, and when the line is falling, the first term is doing worse, i.e., silver is doing better. In other words, when the ratio is high, the general consensus is that silver is favored. Conversely, a low ratio tends to favor gold and may be a signal it’s a good time to buy the yellow metal. Despite the gold-to-silver ratio fluctuating so wildly, another way of using it is to switch holdings between silver and gold when the ratio swings to historically determined "extremes."
Read more about gold versus silver:
About Gold
XAU/USD, GOLD
In the Forex market, gold is a form of currency. The particularity of gold is that it can only be traded against United States dollars (USD). The internationally accepted code for gold is XAU. It is known to be a “safe-haven” asset, it is expected to increase its value in times of volatility and economic uncertainty.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollar (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Gold Ounce (the base currency). United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of gold in the world.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- WGC (World Gold Council), the market development organisation for the gold industry whose aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for that commodity.
- LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, whose members conduct trading in this wholesale over-the-counter market for the trading of gold and silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.), the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and became the division responsible for metals trading.
- Zurich Gold Pool founded in 1968 by the largest banks in Switzerland after the collapse of the London Gold Pool.
- CGSE, the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (see above the importance of China in terms of gold reserve).
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- David Harquail, the World Gold Council’s Chairman
- Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
The main indicators that traders should watch to understand where gold is standing are:
- Demand vs Supply for the commodity
- Struggling markets or context of currency devaluation: gold is known to be a haven for investors in times of economic uncertainty or when any country sees its currency devaluing
- Practical applications: technology invents, jewellery use, etc
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: USD and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver, the other most important precious metal commodity together with Gold.
- Bonds: Bund (the German word for "bond", a debt security issued by Germany's federal government) and T-Note (Treasury Note, a marketable U.S. government debt security)
- Indices: Hui (AMEX Gold BUGS), XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index) and GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) The most important stock exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
