The Week Ahead

EUR/USD refreshes 2014 low amid year−end turbulence

Another volatile week comes to an end in the FX market, which saw the FOMC changing its language and the SNB setting negative interest rates.

The dollar: a year in review

With only a couple of weeks left until the end of the year it is worth evaluating FX performance this year. As you can see in the chart below, the USD has been a stand−out performer in both the G10 and EM FX spaces.

The Week Ahead: Will 2015 be Kind to King Dollar?

Heading into last week, EURUSD's chart was beginning to look cautiously bullish, with rates peeking out above the two−month falling wedge pattern. After a continuation higher in the first half of the week though, the pair reversed abruptly in the wake of Wednesday FOMC...

'Yen weakness should remain as long as equity markets stay elevated' − Christopher Vecchio, DailyFX

Yen weakness should remain as long as equity markets stay elevated. Beyond general risk on/off flows, there is little 'juice left to squeeze' from the Abe election trade. The elections were essentially fixed anyhow....

Oil prices to bottom in Q1 15

We expect the focus to remain on oil price development and Russia over the comingweeks. In the US, we estimate PCE core inflation was 1.5% y/y in November: The labourmarket report for December is due to be released in the first week of January.

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The USD remains heavy, but mostly sideways in the holiday season

Pair Average levels
1 Week 1 Month 1 Quarter
EURUSD 1.2267 1.2249 1.2078
GBPUSD 1.5569 1.5593 1.5542
USDJPY 109.00 112.91 115.54
USDCHF 0.9812 0.9829 0.9982
AUDUSD 0.8143 0.8223 0.8148
Pair Average levels
1 Week 1 Month 1 Quarter
USDCAD 1.1588 1.1510 1.1582
NZDUSD 0.7732 0.7735 0.7658
GBPJPY 187.72 187.32 191.54
EURJPY 146.89 147.17 148.24
EURGBP 0.7836 0.7824 0.7756

After a decline of 350 pips post-FOMC, the #FXpoll expect some consolidation into holiday season.

No matter the good data of CPI or Retail Sales in the UK; the Greenback remains heavy and therefore, the GBP/USD: Below 1.5600.

The USD/JPY consolidates positions before a new long-term increase.

No recovery for the AUD/USD; despite a small bounce in the 1-month picture, the #FXpoll expects the pair to be 'pegged' to the 0.8150.

Gradual rise in the EUR/JPY; Market players opted for the euro in the weaker competition.

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