Currency, Investor & Market

Summer end, ECB, NFP and more to come next week

The first week of September won't bring just the usual mountain of Central Banks and economic data: will also be the return to trading desks after the long summer break. I'm not sure if the big question is if the ECB will launch QE or if volumes will return to "normal", whatever normal means.

Markets look to ECB meeting

Market moves over the past week have primarily been driven by geopolitical developments and speculation around whether the ECB will ease policy again. News of fighting in the Ukraine sent equity markets down on Thursday...

EUR/USD: New year low, towards 1.3000

Looking at one of the most miserable EUR/USD daily charts of the year, for the past 5 days the EUR/USD traded in between 1.3152, now becoming history, and 1.3220 unable to fill the weekly opening gap at 1.3240, despite the little effort such would required.

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EUR and GBP up in correction mode; JPY still under pressure

Pair Average levels
1 Week 1 Month 1 Quarter
EURUSD 1.3179 1.3231 1.3157
GBPUSD 1.6633 1.6756 1.6777
USDJPY 103.83 104.20 105.01
USDCHF 0.9142 0.9146 0.9266
AUDUSD 0.9345 0.9223 0.9110
Pair Average levels
1 Week 1 Month 1 Quarter
USDCAD 1.0829 1.0907 1.0999
NZDUSD 0.8415 0.8456 0.8452
GBPJPY 172.78 173.74 176.65
EURJPY 137.13 137.32 139.13
EURGBP 0.7950 0.7892 0.7793

EUR/USD bottom or correction?: Investors are mild bullish in EUR seen sideways to bullish for the upcoming month and despite trading at fresh year lows.

GBP/USD ready to resume the upside: Market has turned more Pound positive over these last few days, with the pair seen rising through the quarter up to 1.70 price zone.

USD/JPY some consolidation before a new leg up: latest USD/JPY gains had encouraged buyers, with the pair seen now consolidating at current levels before advancing beyond 105.00 .

AUD/USD gaining bearish potential: Aussie will have to face RBA next week, which generates some uncertainty, but bears have taken the lead in the longer run.

EUR/JPY upside limited by EUR weakness: Despite seen bullish, gains are seen limited by the lack of strength of the common currency, limited now to 139.00 in a 1 month view.

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Forecast in currencies and commodities in the FXroom this week. Paul Bratby: USD/CAD at 1.1500 by Christmas; and Punter:WTI $91 support; watch for $84.

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