The EUR/USD pair trades at its lowest in 7-month ahead of the ECB meeting, in where the Central Bank is largely expected to extend its stimulus program. Last October, Mario Draghi announced that they were willing to review the amount of bond buying, and the market is already expecting a monthly increase of 10/20 billion per month, and a six month extension of the program. Additionally, last week rumors arose that the ECB can turn further negative its deposit rates, currently at -0.20%.
Given that the first possible move has been anticipated two months ago, most of it has been already priced in. The second could be more a surprise, as Draghi said some time ago that he won't cut rates any further. The EUR is generally weak and poised to extend its decline, but the ECB has do more than what investors are expected to actually weaken the currency further, and that could be a 10bp additional cut in the deposit rate.
View the Live chart of the EUR/USD
A dovish announcement should see the pair finally breaking through the 1.0550 support, and drive the pair down to 1.0460/90. Should the ECB fail to deliver, the pair can recover with an acceleration above 1.0630 exposing it to a test of the 1.0700 level.
Considering that the US FED's chair Yellen will testify for a second day after the ECB, and that the US will release the Nonfarm Payroll report on Friday, there is a good chance that market reactions will be limited, as the focus will quickly chance towards a possible US rate hike next December 17.
Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these assets. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Open Markets involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility. The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of FXStreet nor its advertisers. The author will not be held responsible for information that is found at the end of links posted on this page.
If not otherwise explicitly mentioned in the body of the article, at the time of writing, the author has no position in any stock mentioned in this article and no business relationship with any company mentioned. The author has not received compensation for writing this article, other than from FXStreet.
FXStreet and the author do not provide personalized recommendations. The author makes no representations as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability of this information. FXStreet and the author will not be liable for any errors, omissions or any losses, injuries or damages arising from this information and its display or use. Errors and omissions excepted.
The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice.
Recommended Content
Editors’ Picks
GBP/USD extends recovery gains to near 1.3250, as BoE looms
GBP/USD extends the recovery to near 1.3200 in European trading on Thursday, having found buyers near 1.3150. A fresh US Dollar pullback and a rebound in risk sentiment offer support to the pair ahead of the BoE policy announcements.
EUR/USD advances to 1.1150, focus shifts to ECB-speak
EUR/USD is well-bid near 1.1150 in the European session on Thursday. The pair is underpinned by the renewed US Dollar retreat and an upbeat mood. Traders digest the Fed's dovish outlook, bracing for ECB-speak for fresh trading incentives. US data are also eyed.
Gold price jumps back closer to all-time peak, $2,600 remains in sight amid fresh USD weakness
Gold price regains positive traction following the previous day's pullback from the all-time peak and builds on its steady intraday ascent heading into the European session on Thursday.
BoE expected to keep interest rate unchanged at 5% as price pressures persist
After a close call in August, the Bank of England’s September interest rate decision is keenly awaited for fresh cues on the bank’s future policy action and the pace of its bond sales.
Bitcoin surges to $62,000 mark after 50 bps Fed rate cut
Bitcoin and Ripple eye for a rally as they break and find support around their resistance barrier. Meanwhile, Ethereum demonstrates signs of recovery as it approaches a critical resistance level, indicating that an upward rally could be on the horizon if it successfully breaks through.
Moneta Markets review 2024: All you need to know
VERIFIED In this review, the FXStreet team provides an independent and thorough analysis based on direct testing and real experiences with Moneta Markets – an excellent broker for novice to intermediate forex traders who want to broaden their knowledge base.