The dollar took a serious hit this Friday after being on the bullish side for most of the week, hit by the smallest quarterly wages gain since 2015. On Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve has its monthly economic meeting, and its statement sent investors towards the greenback, as despite to clear date was established for a rate hike, many understood that September chances were high. The positive sentiment accelerated on Thursday, after US GDP figures resulted at 2.3% in the second quarter of the year, whilst the Q1 was revised from -02% to 0.6%. The EUR/USD fell down to 1.0892, where it established its weekly low.
The upside was limited by selling interest in the 1.1120 region, from where the pair retreated twice in the week. Given that the next week will be the first of the month, most of the upcoming moves will come from how investors react to macroeconomic readings, particularly those related with inflation and employment, the two pillars of the FED.
View live chart of the EUR/USD
Technically, the pair maintains a neutral stance in the weekly chart, as the price is barely above a horizontal 20 SMA, whilst the Momentum indicators rests horizontal above its 100 level and the RSI indicator aims higher, but around 45. The pair seems to me mostly consolidating, with summer holidays in the north hemisphere limiting chances of a clearer mid-term breakout during the upcoming weeks. In the daily chart, the price is pointing to close the week below its 100 DMA, while the technical indicators aim slightly higher in neutral territory, far from suggesting a clear directional strength.
Given the mentioned weekly low, the 1.0900 will become then a critical support for the upcoming days, as a break below it should see the price extending pretty straight towards the 1.0800/20 region, the base of its latest range. Should this level give up, markets' eyes will turn towards the 1.0650 region.
The critical resistance continues to be 1.1120, with a steady advance beyond it required to see a more constructive EUR, with the pair then poised to rally up to the 1.1200/50 price zone.
Latest updates on the EUR/USD Forecast
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