EUR/USD Forecast and News
EUR/USD retreats to 1.0750, eyes on Fedspeak
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades at around 1.0750 on Wednesday. Hawkish comments from Fed officials help the US Dollar stay resilient and don't allow the pair to stage a rebound.
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EUR/USD Technical Overview
The EUR/USD pair is biased lower, although the momentum is absent. It has traded within tight ranges for the last three days, posting lower lows and lower highs, which usually indicate mounting selling pressure. Still, technical indicators gave no clear directional clues. A bearish 200 Simple Moving Average (SMA) provides dynamic resistance around 1.0795, while the 100 SMA also heads marginally lower above it. The 20 SMA, in the meantime, stands below the current level, losing its previously downward strength. At the same time, technical indicators remain above their midlines but without signalling any dominant interest.
In the near term, and according to the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD is neutral-to-bearish. The price is stuck around a flat 200 SMA, while the 20 SMA also lacks directional strength yet above the current level. Technical indicators, in the meantime, head nowhere just below their midlines. The pair would need to run past 1.0810 to shrug off the negative stance, while an acceleration through 1.0700 should open the door for a test of the 1.0660 price zone.
Support levels: 1.0700 1.0660 1.0620
Resistance levels: 1.0810 1.0840 1.0885
Fundamental Overview
Financial markets have shown little signs of life these days, with the EUR/USD pair still stuck around the 1.0750 mark. The hawkish tone of the Federal Reserve (Fed) was far from a surprise, but it seems speculative interest finally reconciled itself with the idea of higher for longer interest rates and was left clueless. And it is not just the Fed. Give or take, most major central banks had drawn a clear path in which loosening the monetary policy would have to wait until they gained enough confidence on inflation moving towards their goals.
The European Central Bank (ECB) may be the most notorious exception, as ECB officials have been paving the way for a June rate cut amid concerns the tight monetary policy will result in a steep economic setback. Ahead of the June meeting, however, macroeconomic data suggest the economy is doing better. Would the ECB step back from its dovish stance? That could be an interesting scenario moving forward, as trimming rates before the Fed will mean a sharp depreciation of the Euro. But it may be too early to discuss that. It’s, however, relevant as it translates to absent directional strength.
The ECB had a Non-Monetary Policy Meeting early on Wednesday, while Germany published March Industrial Production, which fell 0.4% YoY, better than the 0.6% slide anticipated by market participants. The American session will bring the United States (US) March Wholesale Inventories and several speeches from Fed officials.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly EUR/USD forecast? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the Euro-US Dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
EUR/USD: Optimism prevailed, hurting US Dollar demand Premium
The EUR/USD pair advanced for a third consecutive week, accumulating a measly 160 pips in that period. The pair trades around 1.0760 ahead of the close after tumultuous headlines failed to trigger a clear directional path.
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD retreats to 1.0750, eyes on Fedspeak
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades at around 1.0750 on Wednesday. Hawkish comments from Fed officials help the US Dollar stay resilient and don't allow the pair to stage a rebound.
GBP/USD remains on the defensive around 1.2500 ahead of BoE
The constructive tone in the Greenback maintains the risk complex under pressure on Wednesday, motivating GBP/USD to add to Tuesday's losses and gyrate around the 1.2500 zone prior to the upcoming BoE's interest rate decision.
USD/JPY surges to near 155.50 as Fed expects to prolong policy rates
USD/JPY extends winning streak amid hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed’s stance on monetary policy. Fed's Kashkari anticipates the prolonging of elevated rates and suggests that further rate hikes are not entirely ruled out. The Japanese Yen depreciated despite the potential for intervention by Japanese authorities.
Gold fluctuates in narrow range above $2,300
Gold struggles to make a decisive move in either direction and moves sideways in a narrow channel above $2,300. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield clings to modest gains near 4.5% and limits XAU/USD's upside.
Oil erases intraday loss after draw down in Crude inventories
Oil nearly erases all intraday losses after EIA release. WTI Oil hangs around $78 after a dive to $76.76 earlier. The US Dollar Index ticks up with help from the Japanese Yen and market uncertainty.
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EUR/USD Yearly forecast
How could EUR/USD move this year? Our experts make a EUR/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the euro-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 EUR/USD forecast!
EUR/USD FORECAST 2024
In the EURUSD 2024 Forecast, our analyst, Valeria Bednarik, anticipates gains for the next couple of months. The Eurozone economy would need to show steady signs of recovery to prevent EUR/USD from collapsing below 1.0390 in the year's second half. Read more details about the forecast.
The pair traded as low as 1.0447 and as high as 1.1275 throughout 2023, with currencies moving on sentiment.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR EUR/USD
There is a note of color that would stand out in the upcoming months: the US 2024 presidential election that will take place on November 5. The contest nomination will start as soon as January and run until June. The pinch of drama comes from Donald Trump’s desire to represent Republicans once again. A potential second government of Donald Trump could mean higher inflationary pressures as Trump could reintroduce tariffs on imports and push against the agreements between China and the Biden administration.
Influential Institutions & People for the EUR/USD
The Euro US Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The European Central Bank (ECB)
The European Central Bank (ECB) is the central bank empowered to manage monetary policy for the Eurozone and maintain price stability, so that the euro’s purchasing power is not eroded by inflation. The ECB aims to ensure that the year-on-year increase in consumer prices is less than, but close to 2% over the medium term. Another of its tasks is one of controlling the money supply. The European Central Bank’s work is organized via the following decision-making bodies: the Executive Board, the Governing Council and the General Council. Christine Lagarde is the President of this organism.
ECB Official Website, on Twitter and YouTube
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde was born in 1956 in Paris, France. Graduated from Paris West University Nanterre La Défense and became President of the European Central Bank in November 1st 2019. Prior to that, she served as Chairman and Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund between 2011 and 2019. Lagarde previously held various senior ministerial posts in the Government of France: she was Minister of the Economy, Finance and Industry (2007–2011), Minister of Agriculture and Fishing (2007) and Minister of Commerce (2005–2007).
Lagarde on ECB'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
FED NEWS & ANALYSIS
About EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, it is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online. If there is important U.S. data we can expect quiet markets just ahead of the number. U.S. economic news have the ability to either reinforce an existing trend or reverse it depending on by how much it missed or beat expectations with the EUR/USD news. By 5:00 GMT liquidity leaves the market once again as European traders close out positions and head home.
Related pairs
GBP/USD
The GBP/USD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs worldwide. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The pair is also called 'The Cable', reffering to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term was originated in the mid-19th century and it makes GBP/USD one of the oldest currency pairs in the world.
The popularity of the Pound Dollar is due to the fact that represents two strong economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a widely observed and traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. After the result of the Brexit referendum, where the majority of the British voted to abandon the European Union, GBP/USD has been suffering some turbulence in the Forex market as a consequence of the associated risks of leaving the single market.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair is one of the 'Majors', the most important pairs in the world. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate, normally used in carry trades, that's why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when reffered to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is dued to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.