Preparing for THE Bottom: Part 3 - Gold to Silver Ratio
Gold Forecast and News
Gold stays near $2,310 as US yields edge higher
Following a quiet Asian session, Gold retreated slightly to the $2,310 area. Hawkish tone of Fed policymakers help the US Treasury bond yields edge higher and make it difficult for XAU/USD to gather bullish momentum.
Latest XAU/USD News
XAU/USD Technical Overview
The gold price trades stronger on the day. However, the positive outlook of the yellow metal in the longer term remains unchanged as XAU/USD is above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) with an upward slope.
In the near term, the gold price has been stuck within a descending trend channel since mid-April. The modest bearish stance is confirmed by the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), which holds below the 50 midline.
The $2,300 psychological round figure will be the first downside target for XAU/USD. Any follow-through selling below this level will expose the lower limit of a descending trend channel at $2,260. A bearish breakout of the mentioned level will pave the way to a low of April 1 at $2,228, followed by the $2,200 round mark.
On the upside, the immediate barrier will emerge near a high of May 6 at $2,232. The next hurdle is located near the confluence of the upper boundary of a descending trend channel and a high of April 26 at the $2,350–$2,355 region. The additional upside filter to watch is the $2,400 round mark, en route to an all-time high near $2,432.
Fundamental Overview
Gold price (XAU/USD) attracts some buyers during the Asian trading hours on Wednesday. Safe-haven demand, fueled by geopolitical tensions and uncertainty, as well as ongoing central bank purchases, might contribute to a rally in gold. Nonetheless, the hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials might dampen hopes for potential interest rate cuts in 2024, despite weaker-than-expected US employment reports in April. This, in turn, might drag the precious metal lower.
Later on Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) Philip Jefferson, Susan Collins, and Lisa Cook are set to speak. The hawkish remarks from the Fed policymakers might lift the Greenback and weigh on the USD-denominated gold. Gold traders will monitor the consumer sentiment reading from the University of Michigan on Friday.
SPECIAL WEEKLY FORECAST
Interested in weekly XAU/USD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the gold-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
Gold: XAU/USD bears take action on mixed signals from US economy Premium
Gold (XAU/USD) price fell more than 2% for the second consecutive week, erased a small portion of its losses but finally came under renewed bearish pressure. The near-term technical outlook points to a loss of bullish momentum as the market focus shifts to Fedspeak.
Metals Big Picture
METALS BULLISH THEMES
METALS BEARISH THEMES
Latest XAU/USD Analysis
Editors' picks
EUR/USD retreats to 1.0750 area as USD recovers
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure and trades slightly below 1.0750 in the European session on Wednesday. Hawkish comments from Fed officials help the US Dollar stay resilient and don't allow the pair to stage a rebound.
GBP/USD drops below 1.2500 ahead of Thursday's BoE event
GBP/USD stays on the back foot and trades in negative territory below 1.2500 after losing nearly 0.5% on Tuesday. The renewed US Dollar strength on hawkish Fed comments weighs on the pair as market focus shifts to the BoE's policy announcements on Thursday.
USD/JPY surges to near 155.50 as Fed expects to prolong policy rates
USD/JPY extends winning streak amid hawkish sentiment surrounding the Fed’s stance on monetary policy. Fed's Kashkari anticipates the prolonging of elevated rates and suggests that further rate hikes are not entirely ruled out. The Japanese Yen depreciated despite the potential for intervention by Japanese authorities.
Gold stays near $2,310 as US yields edge higher
Following a quiet Asian session, Gold retreated slightly to the $2,310 area. Hawkish tone of Fed policymakers help the US Treasury bond yields edge higher and make it difficult for XAU/USD to gather bullish momentum.
WTI remains on the defensive around $78.00 amid signs of easing supply tightness, stronger US Dollar
Western Texas Intermediate, the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $78.00 on Wednesday. The black gold edges lower due to a stronger US Dollar and signs of easing supply concerns. Oil traders will shift their focus to the EIA Crude Oil stockpiles report due later on Wednesday.
Majors
Cryptocurrencies
Signatures
XAU/USD YEARLY FORECAST
How could XAU/USD move this year? Our experts make a XAU/USD update forecasting the possible moves of the gold-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 XAU/USD forecast!
2024 FORECAST FOR XAU/USD
In the XAU/USD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Eren Sengezer, notes that Gold carries its bullish potential into early 2024 on prospects of a looser Fed policy, lower US bond yields and a weaker USD. A downturn in the global economy, however, could weigh on demand and limit the precious metal’s gains. A lack of progress in the Fed’s efforts to lower inflation, on the other hand, could cause XAU/USD to turn south. Read more details about the forecast.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR XAU/USD
The Russia-Ukraine conflict in 2022 and the Israel-Hamas dispute in 2023 underscored Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in uncertain times. Further escalation in the Middle East or a resurgence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict may push Gold prices higher.
A potential re-election of former President Donald Trump could involve a 10% tariff on foreign goods and a four-year plan to reduce essential Chinese imports. This could complicate the Federal Reserve's task of lowering inflation to the 2% target and strain relations with China, negatively affecting Gold's demand outlook.
Gold/Silver Ratio
This ratio normally goes well during risk aversion, while it falls off during times of risk-on. If this ratio is about to turn, or at key levels where it could turn, the
trader looks to the Equity indices if the risk has indeed been on and if it is about to turn as well.
When the ratio is rising, it means gold is outperforming silver, and when the line is falling, the first term is doing worse, i.e., silver is doing better. In other words, when the ratio is high, the general consensus is that silver is favored. Conversely, a low ratio tends to favor gold and may be a signal it’s a good time to buy the yellow metal. Despite the gold-to-silver ratio fluctuating so wildly, another way of using it is to switch holdings between silver and gold when the ratio swings to historically determined "extremes."
Read more about gold versus silver:
About Gold
XAU/USD, GOLD
In the Forex market, gold is a form of currency. The particularity of gold is that it can only be traded against United States dollars (USD). The internationally accepted code for gold is XAU. It is known to be a “safe-haven” asset, it is expected to increase its value in times of volatility and economic uncertainty.
The XAU/USD pair tells the trader how many US Dollar (the quote currency) are needed to purchase one Gold Ounce (the base currency). United States is the country that holds the biggest resources of gold in the world.
ORGANIZATIONS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- WGC (World Gold Council), the market development organisation for the gold industry whose aim is to stimulate and sustain demand for that commodity.
- LBMA, London Bullion Market Association, whose members conduct trading in this wholesale over-the-counter market for the trading of gold and silver. It is loosely overseen by the Bank of England. Most of the members are major international banks or bullion dealers and refiners.
- COMEX (Commodity Exchange Inc.), the primary market for trading metals. The COMEX merged with the New York Mercantile exchange (NYMEX) in 1994 and became the division responsible for metals trading.
- Zurich Gold Pool founded in 1968 by the largest banks in Switzerland after the collapse of the London Gold Pool.
- CGSE, the Chinese Gold & Silver Exchange Society (see above the importance of China in terms of gold reserve).
PEOPLE THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- David Harquail, the World Gold Council’s Chairman
- Steven Mnuchin, US Treasury Secretary
- Xi Jinping, President of the People's Republic of China and General Secretary of the Communist Party of China
ECONOMIC DATA THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
The main indicators that traders should watch to understand where gold is standing are:
- Demand vs Supply for the commodity
- Struggling markets or context of currency devaluation: gold is known to be a haven for investors in times of economic uncertainty or when any country sees its currency devaluing
- Practical applications: technology invents, jewellery use, etc
ASSETS THAT INFLUENCE XAU/USD THE MOST
- Currencies: USD and EUR. Other important group of influent pairs includes: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD.
- Commodities: Silver, the other most important precious metal commodity together with Gold.
- Bonds: Bund (the German word for "bond", a debt security issued by Germany's federal government) and T-Note (Treasury Note, a marketable U.S. government debt security)
- Indices: Hui (AMEX Gold BUGS), XAU (Philadelphia Gold and Silver Sector Index) and GDM (NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index) The most important stock exchanges are the New York Mercantile Exchange (COMEX), the Chicago Board of Trade, the Euronext/LIFFE, the London Bullion Market, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, the Bolsa der Mercadorias e Futuros and the Korea Futures Exchange.
