EUR/USD Forecast: hanging by a thread


The EUR/USD pair bounces from a daily low set at 1.2428 after data showed European inflation matched expectations of 0.3% yearly basis, along with unemployment rate steady at 11.5%. But data is far from encouraging, as the EZ keeps hanging by a thread under the menace of deflation; would the ECB launch QE next week to fight against it, the EUR may finally feel some love yet chances are quite limited according con yesterday’s comments coming from Mario Draghi before the Finnish Parliament, suggesting that latest measures still need to work out.

From a technical point of view, the pair hovers around the 1.2440 level, right below its 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart and with indicators heading lower below their midlines which keeps the risk to the downside. Immediate support stands at the 1.2400 figure, where the pair has found intraday buying interest earlier in the week; a break below should then lead to a steady decline towards 1.2360 this year low. To the upside, the resistance to overcome is 1.2485, with a break above favoring an upward extension towards 1.2520/30 price zone.

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