GBPUSD Forecast and News
GBP/USD drops below 1.2700 on notable US Dollar demand
GBP/USD is extending the downside below 1.2700 in the European trading hours on Tuesday. The ongoing bullish momentum in the US Dollar, despite sluggish US Treasury bond yields, undermines the pair. Mid-tier US housing data are coming up next.
Latest GBP News
Technical Overview
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator on the 4-hour chart stays slightly below 30, suggesting that the pair is close to turning technically oversold. The last two times that the RSI dipped to the 30 area on the same chart in early and late February, GBP/USD staged a technical correction.
In case GBP/USD starts correcting higher, the Fibonacci 50% retracement level of the latest uptrend could act as first resistance near 1.2710 before the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.2730 and 1.2750 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement, descending trend line).
On the downside, 1.2670 (200-period SMA) aligns as key support before 1.2620 (Fibonacci 61.8% retracement) and 1.2600 (static level).
Fundamental Overview
Following Monday's indecisive action, GBP/USD lost its traction and dropped to its lowest level in nearly two weeks below 1.2700. The near-term technical outlook suggests that the pair is about to turn oversold.
The broad-based US Dollar (USD) strength continues to weigh on the pair ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of England (BoE) policy meetings. The benchmark 10-year US Treasury bond yield holds above 4.3% after rising over 5% in the previous week and supports the USD.
Meanwhile, US stock index futures turned negative on the day after rising marginally during the Asian trading hours. In case safe-haven flows start to dominate the financial markets after Wall Street's opening bell, the USD could preserve its strength and force GBP/USD to stay on the back foot. In the absence of high-tier data releases from the US, investors could continue to react to changes in risk perception in the near term.
Ahead of the Fed and the BoE policy decisions, the UK's Office for National Statistics will release Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February early Wednesday. On a yearly basis, the annual CPI inflation in the UK is forecast to soften to 3.6% from 4% in January.
SPECIAL WEEKLY GBPUSD FORECAST
Interested in weekly GBPUSD forecasts? Our experts make weekly updates forecasting the next possible moves of the pound-dollar pair. Here you can find the most recent forecast by our market experts:
GBP/USD: Pound Sterling loses shine after hitting seven-month highs Premium
The Pound Sterling (GBP) gave into the US Dollar (USD) resurgence, as GBP/USD registered a sharp correction from seven-month highs of 1.2894 reached a week ago.
Big Picture
GBPUSD Bullish Themes
GBPUSD BEARISh Themes
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Editors' picks
EUR/USD eases to near 1.0850 on renewed USD strength
EUR/USD stays under modest bearish pressure, battling 1.0850 in the European session on Tuesday. The renewed USD strength weighs on the pair. ZEW sentiment survey will be featured in the European economic docket ahead of housing data from the US.
GBP/USD drops below 1.2700 on notable US Dollar demand
GBP/USD is extending the downside below 1.2700 in the European trading hours on Tuesday. The ongoing bullish momentum in the US Dollar, despite sluggish US Treasury bond yields, undermines the pair. Mid-tier US housing data are coming up next.
USD/JPY extends rally beyond 150.00 as markets assess BoJ decisions
USD/JPY preserves its bullish momentum after breaking above 150.00 with the 'sell the fact' reaction to the Bank of Japan's decision to end negative interest rates. In the post-meeting press conference, Governor Ueda said they will consider options for easing broadly, including ones used in the past if needed.
Gold price struggles to lure buyers, holds steady above one-week low ahead of FOMC meeting
Gold price ticks lower amid reduced Fed rate cut bets, elevated US bond yields and stronger USD. Geopolitical tensions could lend some support to the safe-haven XAU/USD and help limit losses.
WTI stretches lower as Russia increases supplies, trades around $81.80
WTI price corrects after reaching a four-month high of $82.46 marked on Monday. Russia has increased its exports in reaction to Ukrainian attacks on the nation's oil infrastructure. Saudi Aramco CEO Amin Nasser rejected the idea of phasing out fossil fuels, describing it as a fantasy.
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GBPUSD YEARLY FORECAST
How could GBPUSD move this year? Our experts make a GBPUSD update forecasting the possible moves of the pound-dollar pair during the whole year. Don't miss our 2024 GBPUSD forecast!
2024 GBPUSD FORECAST
In the GBPUSD Price Forecast 2024, our analyst, Dhwani Mehta, notes there are plenty of unknowns and looming uncertainties that make it difficult to convincingly predict the course of the Pound Sterling against the US Dollar (USD) in the year ahead. On both sides of the Atlantic, increased odds of a recession, a dovish pivot in the monetary policies and general elections are foreseen as the key factors driving the GBP/USD price action next year, barring any unprecedented geopolitical risks. Read more details about the forecast.
GBP/USD witnessed a rollercoaster ride in 2023 but the Pound Sterling managed to preserve the recovery gains seen in the first half of the year to a 15-month high of 1.3142.
MOST INFLUENTIAL POLITICAL EVENTS IN 2024 FOR GBPUSD
BoE policymakers continue to push back against expectations of rate cuts next year. However, deteriorating economic performance prompted money markets to begin pricing in four 25 bps rate cuts starting from the summer, anticipating the key rate to be slashed from 5.25% to as low as 4.25% by the end of 2024. The first cut is expected as early as June, to 5.0%.
Even though the Bank of England largely shrugged off a 0.3% contraction in GDP for October, the prospect of a recession in the run-up to a 2024 national election remains high.
A general election is expected next year in the US and the UK, which could fuel intense volatility around the GBP/USD pair. Amidst looming inflation and growth concerns, the political developments on both sides of the Atlantic are likely to be closely followed.
Influential Institutions & People for the GBPUSD
The Pound VS Dollar can be seriously affected by news or the decisions taken by two main central banks:
The Bank of England (BoE)
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom. Established in 1694 and privately owned in the beginning, the Bank was nationalised in 1946 so now is completely owned by the UK government. BOE's main reason to be is to maintain monetary and financial stability in the country. Some of its other tasks are producing secure bank notes, operating asset purchase facility and keeping the inflation low and stable. The bank is overseen by the Court, named used to reffer the board of directors, and is accountable to Parliament and the public.
BOE Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed)
On the other
FED Official Website, on Twitter and Facebook
Andrew Bailey
Andrew Bailey is Governor of the Bank of England since 16 March 2020. He was announced as the new Governor of the BoE on 20 December 2019. Bailey was born in Leicester in 1959 and graduated from Queens' College with a BA in History and a PhD from the Faculty of History, University of Cambridge in 1985. Before becoming the Governor of the BOE, Andrew worked at the Bank in a number of areas, most recently as Executive Director for Banking Services and Chief Cashier, as well as Head of the Bank's Special Resolution Unit (SRU). Previous roles include Governor's Private Secretary, and Head of the International Economic Analysis Division in Monetary Analysis.
Bailey on BOE'S Profile and Wikipedia
Jerome Powell
Jerome Powell took office as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System in February 2018, for a four-year term ending in February 2022. His term as a member of the Board of Governors will expire January 31, 2028. Born in Washington D.C., he received a bachelor’s degree in politics from Princeton University in 1975 and earned a law degree from Georgetown University in 1979. Powell served as an assistant secretary and as undersecretary of the Treasury under President George H.W. Bush. He also worked as a lawyer and investment banker in New York City. From 1997 through 2005, Powell was a partner at The Carlyle Group.
Jerome Powell Fed's Profile and Wikipedia
BOE NEWS & ANALYSIS
ECB NEWS & ANALYSIS
About GBPUSD
The GBPUSD (or Pound Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. The pair is also called 'The Cable', referring to the first Transatlantic cable that was crossing the Atlantic Ocean in order to connect Great Britain with the United States of America. This term originated in the mid-19th century, which makes it one of the oldest currency pairs.
Pound Dollar represents two economies: British and American (from United States of America). The Cable is a closely watched and widely traded currency pair where the Pound is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. For that reason, all the macroeconomic data related to the US and the UK affects the price of this pair. One of the events which affected most the volatility of the pound vs. dollar was Brexit.
Related pairs
EUR/USD
The EUR/USD (or Euro Dollar) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. The popularity of Euro Dollar is due to the fact that it gathers two main economies: the European and American (from United States of America) ones. This is a widely traded currency pair where the Euro is the base currency and the US Dollar is the counter currency. Since the EUR/USD pair consists of more than half of all the trading volume worldwide in the Forex Market, it is almost impossible for a gap to appear, let alone a consequent breakaway gap in the opposite direction.
Normally, the EUR/USD is very quiet during the Asian session because economic data that affects the fundamentals of those currencies is released in either the European or U.S. session. Once traders in Europe get to their desks a flurry of activity hits the tape as they start filling customer orders and jockey for positions. At noon activity slows down as traders step out for lunch and then picks back up again as the U.S. comes online.
USD/JPY
The USD/JPY (or US Dollar Japanese Yen) currency pair belongs to the group of 'Majors', a way to mention the most important pairs in the world. This group also includes the following currency pairs: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/CHF, NZD/USD and USD/CAD. Japanese Yen has a low interest rate and is normally used in carry trades. This is the reason why is one of the most trades currencies worldwide. In the USD/JPY the US Dollar is the base currency and the Japanese Yen is the counter currency. The pair represents American (from United States of America) and Japanese economies.
Trading the USD/JPY currency pair is also known as trading the "ninja" or the "gopher", although this last name is more frequently used when referred to the GBP/JPY currency pair. The US Dollar Japanese Yen usually has a positive correlation with the following two pairs: USD/CHF and USD/CAD. The nature of this correlation is due to the fact that both currency pairs also use the US Dollar as the base currency, such as USD/JPY. The value of the pair tends to be affected when the two main central banks of each country, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the Federal Reserve Bank (Fed), face serious interest rate differential.