Forex Market Alerts

Published at 12:36 (GMT) 10 Feb

USD/TRY shorts must be feeling uncomfortable given that modest correction from overstretched levels has a potential to develop into something bigger due rising concerns about Greece which is facing the risk of a disorderly default if it fails to secure financial support fairly soon. While USD/TRY rebound above the 200-dma 1.7552 shifted focus away from the downside, the trendline resistance from the all time high at 1.923 remains intact so far. A break higher would damage the underlying bearish trend which has been dominating since the beginning of the year. While USD/TRY shorts can count on support from the CBT ready to support the domestic unit, the central bank may not step in until much higher levels (above 1.80 more likely) which will be too late for some shorts. PM

Published at 09:49 (GMT) 10 Feb

USD/INR retreated from intraday highs of 49.72, back towards 49.60 in late Far East Asia on exporters' offers and real inflows. SENSEX however pared early gains to slip -0.5% as we write after the weak Dec IP data (for details please search INR+data+IP). Benchmark bond yields meanwhile continued to inch south, last seen at 8.21% after the govt completed the INR 120bn debt sale successfully a short while ago. Separately PM economic adviser Rangarajan opined that a revival in the output cycle was likely in Jan-Mar quarter and he expects FY13 GDP to average 7.5%. RR

Published at 07:52 (GMT) 10 Feb

ECB/ BdF Christian Noyer said Greece situation must be resolved. Onus is on Greece, and Greece must accept that it needs to help itself, Other countries have made great efforts for Greece. Bank of France hold about 2,500 tons of gold. Signs of recovery already exist. ECB is doing everything to ensure liquidity. French economy is not in recession. French growth is "flat", economy on verge of redbound. - Europe 1 Radio - BBG.

Separately, French December Industrial output -1.4%m/m vs -0.8% expected and unrevised +1.% in Nov, Dec manufacturing industry output -1.4%m/m vs revised 1.4% in November - INSEE.

On FX, EUR/USD weighed by concerns over Greece and also eurozone recession, including France, with the weak output data. EUR at day lows around 1.3242-45, but talks of good options related bids, speculation of Asian accounts, China, sovereign, M.E. demand. Offers ahead of 1.3280-00, with more talks of huge 1.3300 option Expiries NY cut. To see good Asian accounts, Option, European sellers ahead of 1.3300 again.

Stops below 1.3200/ 1.3180, EUR/USD finding support on EUR/Crosses short-covering - EUR/SGD, EUR/AUD, EUR/NZD, EUR/GBP. EUR/SGD firmer at 1.6660-70, up sharply from 1.6580-90, with talks of large US hedge funds, models buying USD/Asians and pushing USD/SGD to 1-week highs of 1.2580. WL