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Daily Oil Prices

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Oil Futures

Wed, Sep 16 2009, 07:16 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Daily oil prices responded to the doji candle of Monday which suggested that we could see a reversal back higher once again following last week's sharp sell off, and indeed this was the result with crude oil futures trading higher and ending the session as an upbar which closed above all three moving averages.  This trend of constant price reversals now seems to be a continuing pattern and as outlined in yesterday's oil market commentary is being repeated with increased regularity which suggests that oil prices remain bullish taking their cue from a weaker dollar and hope that the worst of this present downturn may be over.  Today's weekly oil stats may once again add their own brand of volatility as crude oil stocks are expected to show a further drop of 2.5mb and a further rise in gasoline.   The oil market continues to ignore its own bearish fundamentals preferring instead to focus on an upturn in demand in 2010 as the global economy continues to improve.   Meanwhile, the technical picture for daily oil prices remains the same in that we need to see a break and hold above the resistance at $72 per barrel with a meaningful move which would then suggest the $75 per barrel target is once again on the horizon.  My short term view for oil futures remains bullish and should we see the above target breached then there is no reason to suppose that we should not see a break to a much higher price level in due course.  Overall WTI oil futures closed the crude trading session at $70.93 having opened at $68.78 while reaching an intra day high of $71.19 and low of $68.48.  Oil futures vols seen at 260k+.  The Brent contract closed at $69.86 having opened at $69.56 while reaching an intra day high of $70.00 and low of $67.52.

Support:  67.41       Resistance:  72.10

Support:  63.08       Resistance: 67.03

Support:  59.86        Resistance: 61.40

Published on  Wed, Sep 16 2009, 07:16 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, Sep 15 2009, 06:58 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following Friday's sharp sell off in daily oil prices yesterday's oil trading session was decidedly muted with crude oil trading in a relatively narrow range and ending the day as a small doji cross sitting below all three moving averages.  The pattern of a short term rally followed by a sudden reversal is one we have seen several times in August and now seems to be being repeated in early September, but if past history is anything to go by this may only be a temporary change in direction before we see daily oil prices push higher once again.  Indeed yesterday's candle would seem to suggest that this is the case, and certainly failed to follow through on the widespread down bar of Friday.  For oil bulls the concern is twofold:  firstly we are now deeply embedded in the congestion area once again in the $67-$72 price region, and secondly the high of yesterday seemed to find some resistance from the 9 day moving average.  Of these the second is of less significance since the moving averages are now tightly bunched, once again, and therefore of less value from a technical perspective, but nevertheless worth noting.   With daily oil prices now trading in a relatively narrow range we can expect to see a further period of sideways consolidation with the lower boundary defined at the $67 per barrel price and the upper level now established at the $73 per barrel level.  For the longer term direction for crude oil prices we need to see a break and hold below or above these two price points which will then establish the medium term trend once again.  Overall the WTI oil contract closed at $68.86 having opened at $69.15 reaching an intraday high of $69.51 and low of $68.02.  Oil futures contracts were almost 223k contracts.  Meantime the Brent oil contract closed at $67.44 having opened at $67.17 reaching an intraday high of $68.00 and low of $66.66.  Oil futures vols just shy of 98k.

Support:  67.41       Resistance:  72.10

Support:  63.08       Resistance: 67.03

Support:  59.86        Resistance: 61.40

Published on  Tue, Sep 15 2009, 06:58 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Sep 14 2009, 18:20 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Friday's wide spread downbar brought the recent short term rally in daily oil prices to a juddering halt ending the oil trading session below all three moving averages which it breached in the process.  This pattern of a small rally higher followed by a sharp sell off immediately after seems to be becoming a common occurrence at this price level, as crude oil prices now appear to be consolidating in a wide trading range between $67 per barrel and $75 per barrel.  The three moving averages are now tightly bunched once again and painting a confusing picture which provides little in the way of any meaningful analysis at present.  All we can say is that for as long as the market uses crude oil as a hedge against an ever weakening USD daily oil prices will continue to exhibit these sudden and volatile gyrations as evidenced by Friday's oil trading session.  The key as to whether this reversal lower is genuine or simply another market reaction to the US Dollar will only be revealed should we see a break and hold below the $67 per barrel price point once again.  My own view is that the market will almost certainly rally in the short term and use this support level as a springboard to bounce higher in due course.  Until we see a firm break above the $75 per barrel price level then we may be restricted to a period of swing trading opportunities between these two price levels.  Overall the WTI oil contract closed the session at $69.29, having opened at $72.05 with a high at $72.90 and low of $68.82 on oil contract vols in excess of 340k.  The Brent oil contract closed at $67.79, having opened at $69.95 with a high at $70.77 and low of $67.05.

WTI Oil Contract

Support:  67.41       Resistance:  72.10

Support:  63.08       Resistance: 67.03

Support:  59.86        Resistance: 61.40

Published on  Mon, Sep 14 2009, 18:20 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Sep 10 2009, 06:42 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Confirmation that OPEC has decided to maintain current oil production levels for the time being resulted in little volatility to daily oil prices yesterday which ended the trading session with a narrow spread up bar following through the previous day's dramatic breakout.  The key technical point to note from yesterday's oil trading session is that the low of the day found support from the 14 day moving average suggesting that the upwards momentum may well continue into the end of the week and the only issue is the resistance in the $72 per barrel price range.  Indeed yesterday this presented a barrier to the high of the day with daily oil prices closing marginally below this key level.  So far this morning in early trading we have seen a break above the $72 price point once again and should we see daily oil prices hold above this for the remainder of the oil trading session then we can assume that the breakout is now complete and a move to re-test the $74.50 level is likely in the short term.  This technical picture is reinforced by the moving averages which are now fully supportive of any move higher.  Today's EIA's oil inventory numbers together with continuing dollar weakness and relative equity market strength are likely to add to this bullish picture.Overall the WTI oil contract closed the oil trading session at $71.31 having opened at $71.33, reached a high of $72.52 and low of $70.66.  The number of crude oil futures contracts for WTI was a tad under 300k.  Meanwhile the Brent Contract closed its oil trading session at $69.83, having opened at $69.45, reached a high of $70.88 and low of $69.09 on oil futures of 138k.

Support:  69.87      Resistance:  72.26

Support:  66.43      Resistance:  68.92

Support:  62.12      Resistance: 65.88

Trading oil futures is difficult at the best of times which is why it is so important to use an oil broker who can offer the widest possible oil market experience, tight spreads and low margins.  In addition the best oil brokers will also offer an outstanding trading platform such as the metatrader4, one of the most respected and trusted retail platforms.  For more information and to download an online oil trading demo account click any of the highlighted links.    Good luck and good trading.

Published on  Thu, Sep 10 2009, 06:42 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Sep 9 2009, 09:04 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

With Labor Day now firmly behind us and with oil trading volumes returning to normal daily oil prices soared yesterday ending the trading session with a wide spread up bar which breached all three moving averages and ended the oil trading session deep into the consolidation area between $69 and $72 per barrel.  This came as no great surprise and indeed I have suggested that this may be the likely direction for oil prices this week given that last week the consecutive doji candles found some support from the 40 day moving average which has now provided the platform for this move higher.  Technically daily oil prices are now balanced in an interesting position once again on the daily oil chart and we need to consider the options carefully for any further rally this week.  The first point to note is that we have a series of descending highs in the short term starting from the 24th August with yesterday's candle possibly being the third step lower.   For this sequence to be broken we need to see a continuation of yesterday's strong upwards move with a break and hold above the $74.25 per barrel price which will then signal that oil prices are set to move even higher and to target the $75 per barrel price point once again.  The alternative scenario is that we see the price stall at this level and fail to break above the $72 per barrel upper band of  the consolidation level which would signal that the series of lower highs is suggesting a short term downwards trend.  The likelihood, given that we have broken above all three moving averages, is that we should see a move higher in due course and provided we see the various levels outlined above breached, then $75 per barrel and beyond should be achieved relatively quickly.

In the background, of course, we have the OPEC meeting which starts in Vienna today and the general view of oil analysts is that the oil cartel will maintain current production levels as they see no reason to reduce the oil supply given that daily oil prices are very close to their optimal short term target, which has always tended to be around the $70 to $75 per barrel price point.   Of all the OPEC countries Kuwait is one of the few which is currently adhering to its maximum output quota with the UAE following suit, but other member states have been less than stringent in their approach to meeting their output targets.  Overall OPEC's compliance has been sliding lower and now stands at around 69% with the major defaulters being Angola (no cuts) and Iran (5%), according to the International Energy Agency.  Owing to the Labor Day holiday the weekly oil stats are delayed until tomorrow when we will also have the monthly numbers as well.  Overall the WTI oil contract closed the oil trading session at $71.10, having opened at $71.27, reaching an intra day high of $71.79 with a trading volumes of just over 342k contracts.   Meanwhile the Brent oil contract opened yesterday's session at $66.79 reaching a high of $70.10 and closing the oil trading session at $69.42 on a volume of 146,816 oil futures contracts.

WTI Oil Contract:

Support:  69.87      Resistance:  72.26

Support:  66.43      Resistance:  68.92

Support:  62.12      Resistance: 65.88

Trading oil futures is difficult at the best of times which is why it is so important to use an oil broker who can offer the widest possible oil market experience, tight spreads and low margins.  In addition the best oil brokers will also offer an outstanding trading platform such as the metatrader4, one of the most respected and trusted retail platforms.  For more information and to download an online oil trading demo account click any of the highlighted links.    Good luck and good trading.

Published on  Wed, Sep 9 2009, 09:04 GMT

Daily Oil Prices − Oil Trading Analysis

Fri, Sep 4 2009, 07:04 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

According to the FT perplexity as to why Deutsche Bank decided to close it popular double long exchange traded notes continues as it was a relatively simply way for ordinary investors to bet on crude oil prices going up, while using leverage to double returns.  Deutsche hedged risks from the double long product by buying oil futures on Nymex but said it was scrapping the product because of "limitations imposed" by Nymex.   The Bank's holdings were in crude oil for July 2010 delivery, which under Nymex rules are subject to loose "accountability levels" equal to 10m barrels of oil, but not hard limits.  According to CFTC data in the year to June 30, 43 traders breached these levels, each for an average of 87 days and according to Matt Hougan of Indexuniverse "In the past, the exchange looked the other way.  But it seems that is no longer the case".   Big banks such as Deutsche usually enjoy exemptions from these limits because they are also in the market on behalf of their clients and other businesses but with the release of the new format COT data we may, at last, be able to see the extent to which the large Commercials such as Deutsche are actually playing both sides of the oil market.

From a technical perspective and as outlined in yesterday's oil trading market commentary, the 40 day moving average seems increasingly likely to provide the key to the short term direction for daily oil prices, as once again we saw it provide key support yesterday for oil prices  as they hovered around this key technical indicator, ending the oil trading session  with a doji candle balanced on the moving average.  The bear cross indicated by the 9 day average moving below the 14 day moving average is a worrying signal, and only counterbalanced by the support from the 40 day average, so technically crude oil prices are very delicately poised at present.  If this average is breached in any significant way, then we may see a much deeper move back to re-test the initial support at $66.45 per barrel, and should this fail to hold then $63 per barrel would seem to be the next immediate price point for any further support. To the upside we now have the deep congestion area to negotiate once again, and only a wide spread up bar with sustained momentum is likely to break above this level, with a break and hold above the $72 per barrel level being the initial requirement for any sustained rally higher.  , With the three day weekend ahead, the G20, Non Farm Payroll and the upcoming OPEC meeting oil trading may be in for a roller coaster ride as traders square their positions.    All this means that the coming week could be seminal for daily oil prices moving forward into September and the next few weeks.  Overall the WTI oil contract closed the session at $67.96 having opened at $68.15 and traded between a high of $69.40 and low of $67.66.  The Brent oil contract closed its session at $67.12, having opened at $67.65 and traded between a high of $68.70 and a low of $66.95.  Have a great weekend.

WTI Oil Contract

Support: 68.54     Resistance: 70.27

Support: 65.16     Resistance: 67.98

Support: 62.12     Resistance: 64.73

Published on  Fri, Sep 4 2009, 07:04 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Sep 3 2009, 10:37 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's EIA stats produced a mixed bag and together with the the minutes of the FED meeting which revealed the suspicion that the current recovery can best be described as fragile at least until 2010 when in the words of the FED "officials expected the pace of recovery to pick up...but they expressed a range of views, and considerable uncertainty, about the likely strength of the upturn".  This was reflected in daily oil prices with the oil trading session closing as a long legged doji on the daily oil chart which despite two days of sharp decline did manage to find support at the 40 day moving average once again.    Indeed the pattern of the last few weeks seems to be being repeated again, with a sharp sell off, promptly reversing and moving back higher once again, with yesterday's doji pointing to the likelihood of this happening again today.  However, it is important to note that the 9 day has crossed below the 14 day moving average in a bearish cross pattern, so for any reversal to have weight, we need to see an initial move higher with a break back through the strong resistance now immediately ahead, coupled with a break and hold above all three moving averages. Should these factors combine then we may see daily oil prices recover once again, and regain the last ground of the lats two weeks.  Overall the WTI oil contract closed the oil trading session at $68.05 having opened $67.70, touching a high of $68.80 and low of $67.05.  The Brent oil contract closed the session at $67.66 having opened at $67.99, touching a high of $68.55 and a low of $66.76.

WTI Oil Contract

WTI Oil Contract

Support: 68.54     Resistance: 70.27

Support: 65.16     Resistance: 67.98

Support: 62.12     Resistance: 64.73

Published on  Thu, Sep 3 2009, 10:37 GMT

Daily Oil Prices − Oil Trading Analysis

Wed, Sep 2 2009, 08:14 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A volatile day for oil trading yesterday as the oil market reflects analysts' uncertainty as to whether the recent crude price reversal represents a consolidation phase following a doubling of prices since January, or whether we are at the beginning of a deeper correction.  Although today's EIA oil stats will offer a degree of direction the energy complex is still heavily influenced by the performance (or otherwise of the US Dollar).  In addition the 8th September sees the OPEC meeting in Vienna, although most oil market participants believe the cartel will keep its production levels unchanged.  Finally news that Deutsche has decided to redeem all of its $425m PowerShare DB Crude Oil Double Long exchange traded notes, could herald the start of similar liquidations.  The Deutsche product allowed investors to bet on the movement of daily oil prices and as the product was tied to the WTI crude price it will be interesting to see if this (and other possible liquidations) have any effect on the price of the WTI oil contract.   From a technical perspective yesterday saw daily oil prices rise initially in early trading only to reverse as the oil trading session ended on a down candle, but with a deep upper wick and sandwiched between the 14 day and 40 day moving averages. It is interesting to note that the high of the day met resistance from the 14 day moving average, whilst the low of the oil trading session found support from the 40 day moving average, so a mixed technical view on the day, of which the latter will probably prove to be decisive for today. Should we see this technical indicator hold, then we may see the technical reversal higher once again, particularly as there is a minor support level in place at last night's close, but this view is counterbalanced by the upper shadow from yesterday which is certainly bearish.  As mentioned much will depend today on the oil inventory stats which are due for release later today in the US and the reaction of the oil market to the numbers. The forecast is for -0.5 million barrels, against a previous of 0.2 million barrels, with the data indicating the change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week, and as always should the actual numbers vary, then this will cause the inevitable volatility in crude oil trading as a result.

Technically crude oil prices are now delicately balanced - a deeper move could push the oil price back below the deep resistance which is currently partially breached, and if we break below the $67 price point with a breach of the 40 day moving average, then this could signal a much deeper move possibly by $10 per barrel. However, should the oil inventory data provide a boost to oil prices later, then any break above the $72 per price level, coupled with the inevitable breach of the 9 and 14 day moving averages as a result, then this would signal the continuation of the move higher. In summary then, a pivotal day for oil traders and the crude oil trading market, as we wait for the EIA data later today.

Overall the WTI Oil contract closed the oil trading session at $68.05, having opened at $69.85 reaching a high of $71.37 and low of $68.00.  The Brent oil contract closed at $67.73, having opened at $67.99 reaching a high of $71.05 and low of $67.61.

WTI Oil Contract

Support: 68.54     Resistance: 70.27

Support: 65.16     Resistance: 67.98

Support: 62.12     Resistance: 64.73

Published on  Wed, Sep 2 2009, 08:14 GMT

Oil Trading Analysis 1 Sep 2009

Tue, Sep 1 2009, 08:04 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The oil trading market ended the month with a dramatic fall in daily oil prices, with the oil chart closing the trading session on a wide spread down bar, which crossed and held below both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, ending deep into the support region immediately below.  Reasons for yesterday's reversal have ranged from the fall in the Shanghai Composite which saw Chinese stocks record their biggest fall in more than a year as investors fretted that a slowdown in bank lending would stall the economic recovery both in China and around the world.  The 6.7 per cent slump was the worst since June 2008 and capped a dismal August for the index, which recorded its second biggest monthly loss for 15 years.  In addition with Labor Day ahead and London closed owing to a national holiday thin trading volumes exacerbated the decline. From a technical perspective the oil chart is now looking weak, particularly as the close of the oil trading session closed well below the upper boundary of the support region, suggesting further weakness to follow. However, this type of price action is becoming increasingly common in the oil trading market, and it would be no surprise to see an immediate bounce back in crude oil in the next day or so, with oil traders buying into the sharp reversal. Provided the close of any trading session does not end below any of the previous lows of the last few weeks, then we may see the same pattern emerge once again as we saw in late July and again in mid-August. It is all too easy to be drawn into a short position following such as steep fall in crude oil prices as we saw yesterday, only to be cornered in a subsequent reversal immediately afterwards. The key, as always, will be the 40 day moving average - if this provides the technical support required, then we should see a bounce back higher and a further attack on the $75 per barrel price level. However should this fail and ultimately be breached, then we may see a re-test of the $65.40 price level. My feeling is that we may actually see a sharp move higher in the short term.  Overall the WTI oil contract closed at $69.96 per barrel having opened at $71.00, achieved an oil trading high of $73.36 and touched a low of $69.13.  The Brent oil contract closed at $69.95, having opened at $69.65 with a high of $72.90 and low of $68.85.

WTI Oil Contract:

Support:   73.30      Resistance:  75.03

Support:   66.26       Resistance:  72.22

Support:  59.87        Resistance: 64.96

Published on  Tue, Sep 1 2009, 08:04 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Aug 31 2009, 08:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil trading ended the week with a narrow spread doji candle, which failed to follow through on the promise shown in Thursday's candle, where we expected to see a rise in crude oil prices on Friday as a result.   Instead we saw a day of indecision, marked by the doji candle, with the oil price  hovering above the 9 day moving average, and with the close of the oil trading session perched neatly on the average itself. The positive sign for oil trading bulls is that the close finished well above the deep support region below, which had been temporarily breached in Tuesday and Wednesday's sharp reversal lower, only to bounce back quickly on Thursday. Given that oil traders were squaring positions ahead of the holiday weekend, then perhaps the price action on Friday was less surprising, but disappointing nevertheless. However with a new oil trading week ahead, the start of a new month, and a return to normal oil trading volumes in due course, I expect to see break and hold above the minor resistance at $74 per barrel, and from them move strongly higher past the initial target of $75 per barrel, which we may see breached during the week.  Overall the WTI oil contract closed at $72.74 per barrel, having opened at $72.86, reached a high of $73.52 and low of 71.78.  The Brent oil contract closed the oil trading session at $72.79 having opened at $72.64, reached a high of $73.35 and touched a low of $71.90.

WTI Oil Contract

Support: 71.78  Resistance : 74.23

Support: 68.74  Resistance: 70.99

Support: 63.26  Resistance: 67.92

Published on  Mon, Aug 31 2009, 08:26 GMT

Oil Trading Analysis

Fri, Aug 28 2009, 07:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Daily oil prices rebounded yesterday, reversing two days of losses as buoyant US equities were taken by oil traders as the leading indicator to future energy demand.  In addition reports that the US economy had shrunk  less than expected with the release of  preliminary q/q GDP coming in -1.0 against a forecast of -1.4% all added to the positive sentiment for crude oil.   From a technical perspective and as expected following the narrow spread down bar of Wednesday, which found support from both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, yesterday's candle bounced back strongly, ending the oil trading session with a very deep lower shadow and a wide upper body, a positive signal for oil traders today. The reason this candle provides such a bullish signal is as follows - first, the depth of the lower wick is significant, suggesting that oil bulls were buying in force  thus preventing any further falls in crude oil prices late in the trading session. Second, the wick also tested deep into the resistance region with the low of the day piercing the $70 per barrel level before moving back higher once again. Finally the close of the oil trading session found good support from the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, suggesting that this is adding to the support provided by the consolidation region. So in summary, a positive day in the oil market and one from which we should see a good bounce higher in daily oil prices today, with the possibility of re-testing the $75 per barrel price point once again.  However, whether this will occur during today's oil trading session remains to be seen given the holiday weekend ahead.    Overall the WTI oil contract opened the oil trading session at $71.36 before closing the day at $72.49, having reached a high of $72.95 and touched a low of $69.83.  Brent opened its oil trading session at $72.96, closed at $72.51 having reached a high of $72.96 & low of $70.42.

WTI Oil Contract

Support: 71.78  Resistance : 74.23

Support: 68.74  Resistance: 70.99

Support: 63.26  Resistance: 67.92

Published on  Fri, Aug 28 2009, 07:56 GMT

Oil Trading Analysis WTI

Thu, Aug 27 2009, 08:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following Tuesday's volatile price action in daily crude oil prices by contrast yesterday's oil trading session was relatively muted, with the oil market ending the session as a doji candle.   Despite the deep downwards move in crude oil prices at the start of the week, the 9 day and 14 day moving average did offer some degree of technical support to any further selling, and this phenomenon was seen once again in oil trading yesterday, as the two moving averages combined to provide a barrier to any deeper move.  This would seem to suggest that we could see a rise in oil prices today, as the move higher is re-established once again, in much the same way as has happened following previous reversals, principally in late July and early August.  However, it is important to note that technically we have already pierced the support region below with yesterday's closing price finishing marginally inside this region and below the $72 per barrel price handle which defines the upper boundary.  As a result we cannot be sure that this region will hold and therefore any oil trading positions should be approached with care today, until we see a break and hold above this price point once again. Should the reversal lower continue, then any breach of the lower boundary would be a bearish signal for the medium term.  Overall the WTI oil contract closed the oil trading session at $71.43 per barrel, having reached a high of $72.64 and touched a low of $70.67.  Meantime the  Brent oil contract ended the day at $71.65 having reached a high of $72.48 & touched a low of $70.60.

WTI Oil Contract

Support: 69.59      Resistance: 72.08

Support: 66.34      Resistance: 69.08

Support: 59.78      Resistance: 65.43

Published on  Thu, Aug 27 2009, 08:21 GMT

Trading Oil Analysis

Wed, Aug 26 2009, 08:11 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Another interesting day for crude oil trading, as the oil trading session ended with a wide spread down bar reversing at a stroke the gains in crude oil prices of the last few days.   Reasons for this reversal  (in the absence of the usual suspects - US Dollar & equity market which should have been supportive of crude oil prices) include the possibility that today's oil stats will be very bearish and that daily oil prices have simply become "over extended".  However, I should like to suggest that it is more likely to be ETFs and Exchange Traded Note funds which have been pouring money into the oil market now limiting and liquidating their positions in advance of possible new regulations from the CFTC.  According to reports in the FT when funds such Deutsche's Crude Oil Double Long ETN stops issuing new shares because of "current and anticipated new regulatory restrictions and limitations" it is time for oil traders have to take note.   From a technical perspective whilst yesterday's candle is bearish engulfing, it should be  noted that technically the close of the day found support from both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages, and coupled with the strong support level now lying immediately below, this should provide the necessary platform for a reversal in due course from this temporary set back.  It is interesting to note that since early July we have seem a series of higher highs and higher lows, indicative of a bullish trend higher, and one where the oil trading channel is well defined. Today's down bar may well be defining this level once again, and provided the support level in the $71 price region holds, then we may well see a bounce higher in oil prices in due course. Should this level be breached however, then this could signal the end of the latest rally and a return to the bearish sentiment of late June. The oil market,  of course,  like many others is suffering with thin trading volumes ( in oil futures) and a lack of significant news, coupled with the long summer recess, all of which are impacting prices and with extreme and volatile price moves as a result, of which yesterday was one example. As we move forward into September these volatile days should diminish as we establish once again a more orderly pattern and flow to trading the oil markets. Overall the WTI oil contract ended the day at $72.05 per barrel having at one point touched an intra day high of $75.oo per barrel

WTI Oil Contract Support & Resistance:

S: 72.88    R: 75.00

S:68.71     R: 70.70

S:59.25     R:65.25

Published on  Wed, Aug 26 2009, 08:11 GMT

Oil Trading Analysis 25 Aug 2009

Tue, Aug 25 2009, 09:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The oil trading market took a breather yesterday following the explosive break out of last week, and with little fundamental news on the economic calendar yesterday, ended the crude oil trading session with a small doji candle, indicative of a 'no news' day, and an oil market waiting for direction. That direction is likely to be upwards, as the strong support now in place below daily oil prices, should provide the springboard that the crude oil market has been waiting for during the last few weeks, and with plenty of clear water between the current crude oil price and the three moving averages, we should be well protected from any temporary pull back in oil prices.   Given the strength of the recent move, we may see a few days of sideways consolidation at this trading level, before crude oil begins to trade higher once again, with oil traders booking profits on thin trading volumes, as indicated by the volumes in the crude oil futures market.  However given the present bullish sentiment towards crude as both an valuable asset and hedge against a weak Dollar we should see crude oil trading at around $75 per barrel in the short term, with a price of $79.60 per barrel as our next target in the medium term.   Overall the WTI oil contract closed at $74.37 per barrel having achieved an intra day high of $74.81 per barrel.

Support: 72.70  Resistance: 75.70

Support: 66.40  Resistance: 68.90

Support: 59.70 Resistance: 65.45

Published on  Tue, Aug 25 2009, 09:38 GMT

Oil Trading Analysis

Mon, Aug 24 2009, 06:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, at which the heads of the world's central banks were cautiously optimistic on the outlook for the global economy, crude oil trading ended last week with a positive feel to the daily oil chart, with oil traders in bullish mood after the long awaited breakout above the technical resistance level at $72 per barrel which had proved such an obstacle in the last few months, the oil market is now looking towards the $75 per barrel this week.   How quickly this is achieved will depend on the US Dollar as traders and investors increasingly turn to crude oil (and other commodities) as assets and a hedge against a weakening Dollar.   With all three moving averages now providing strong support and with the consolidation in the $68 to $72 per barrel now providing solid support, we should see crude oil trading at the $75 per barrel price point in the short term with a longer term target of $80 per barrel in the medium term. Should we see any reaction lower during oil trading next week then the strong support now in place should provide a significant barrier to any move lower.

The short term bullish, the medium term sideways, the long term bullish.

WTI

Support: 72.65   Resistance : 75,58

Support: 68.73  Resistance : 71.97

Support: 65.14   Resistance : 68.10

Published on  Mon, Aug 24 2009, 06:26 GMT

Crude Oil Trading

Thu, Aug 20 2009, 21:22 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

This week sees the annual gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole and one topic of conversation is likely to be the current state of the US Dollar and its future status as the world's reserve currency.   Indeed comments from the likes of Warren Buffett warning that the US Budget Deficit may harm the US Dollar can only lead to further increases in the price of crude oil as investors use the commodity to hedge against US Dollar devaluation.  Interestingly crude oil is now perceived as an asset class in its own right and if reports that peak oil has arrived can only increase in value.  Technically oil prices took a breather today, although WTI still managed to touch an intraday high of $74.07 per barrel, following the exuberant rally of the last 2 days which therefore came as no great surprise, and ended the oil trading session on a narrow spread down candle.  An interesting point of note is that the open of the oil trading session was marginally gapped up from last night's close suggesting that the bullish momentum remains firmly in place and indeed today's move lower may well be attributable to profit taking rather to any technical change in sentiment.  With crude oil prices now firmly established above the $72 per barrel resistance level this support platform should now provide the necessary springboard to a sustained move higher in the short term and provided equity markets continue to hold their nerve and the Dollar continues to weaken then there is no reason to suppose that we should not achieve our $75 per barrel target sooner rather than later, a view supported by the three moving averages .

The short term is bullish, the medium is sideways & the long term is bullish.

Published on  Thu, Aug 20 2009, 21:22 GMT

Crude Oil Trading

Wed, Aug 19 2009, 21:28 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Daily oil prices rallied sharply higher following the latest crude oil inventory figures in which crude oil stocks fell by 8.4m barrels, confounding the consensus forecast for a further rise of 1.3m barrels (nothing like having a nice wide target to aim at!!).  The drop was mainly due to a huge fall in imports, down 1.42m barrels a day to 8.11m barrels a day last week.  The oil market appears uncertain as to whether this is a one off caused by delays in tanker arrivals or if cargoes bound for the US are still floating somewhere offshore given the contango that has opened up between Brent and WTI.   Alternatively it could simply be that the much vaunted economic recovery is still extremely fragile and that oil demand is still in the doldrums.  This would seem to be confirmed by refining capacity which only increased by 0.5% to 84%, following 4 weeks of declines.  WTI posted an intra day high of $72.80 and Brent an intra day high of $74.90.  From a technical perspective today's candle on the daily oil chart was a carry through of the bullish momentum which exploded in the oil trading market yesterday.  Technically the candle is extremely interesting for several reasons: first the closing price breached the strong resistance at the $72 per barrel price handle which had presented a significant obstacle to any further rise and therefore suggests that we should see oil prices now target, once again the $75 per barrel region once again.  Secondly the low of the day found strong support at the 9/14 day moving average cross, once again a positive signal.  Finally with a deep lower wick to the wide upper body this again suggests that a bullish flavour is now evident in the market and with all these technical factors combining we should see a rise in crude oil prices in early trading tomorrow.  The most significant aspect, of course, is the breach of the $72 per barrel level which now provides a solid springboard to a move higher.  Crude oil prices are also being supported by a return to weakness of the US Dollar as evidenced on the USD Index daily chart which once again is looking very fragile.

Short term is bullish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

Published on  Wed, Aug 19 2009, 21:28 GMT

Oil Trading Analysis for WTI

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 23:03 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Even I was pleasantly surprised by the rebound in daily oil prices today following yesterday's hammer candle but the issue now facing oil traders is whether crude oil can hold onto these gains as the oil market waits for tomorrow's crude oil inventory data and Thursday's expiration of the WTI September contract.   Today's oil trading session finished on a very wide spread up bar boosted in part by a rebound in equities and some weakening of the US Dollar but such events alone cannot explain such a strong reversal especially as it was not surported by any significant volume in the oil futures market.   Indeed the volume of oil futures has been steadily decreasing since Friday as traders and investors squared away their positions ahead of this week's WTI expiration.  With such low volume oil prices are particularly vulnerable and may overreact to tomorrow's Cushing numbers, in particular if the build is seen to be more than 500k barrels and when taken together with a scarcity of any other fundamental data we should expect the unexpected.   Overall WTI oil prices traded within a $4.00 range, closing the oil trading session at $69.89, having touched a high of $70.08 per barrel.  With strong support from the 40 day moving average today's wide spread up bar has propelled daily oil through both the 9 and 14 day moving averages reversing almost completely the strong move lower of last Friday.  The daily oil price now sits firmly amidst the strong congestion between $67 and $72 per barrel and for this momentum to be maintained we need to see a break and hold above the upper band of this region.  Given the strength of today's move we may see this continue in oil trading tomorrow although it should come as no great surprise if we see an early effort to rise promptly extinguished at the $72 per barrel price once again.  So it will be a day of intra day scalping and short term oil trading opportunities.

Published on  Tue, Aug 18 2009, 23:03 GMT

Oil Trading Analysis

Tue, Aug 18 2009, 08:10 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's price action on the daily oil prices chart was interesting for a number of reasons: first the candle created was a "hammer" with a deep lower wick and small body, suggesting that  the oil bulls overcame the bears in yesterday's oil trading session thereby helping to prevent a further decline in oil prices.  Next the close of the oil trading session found support from the 40 day moving average and as a result this combination of technical factors suggests that we should see oil prices attempt to rise in early oil trading today.  However, any rise may be short lived given recent equity market falls which has seen the Shanghai Composite lose almost 6% and the S&P500 almost 2.5% with a consequent rise in the US Dollar as traders and investors flip flop between risk appetite and risk aversion.   This merry go round of correlation will persist as oil continues to be traded as as asset in its own right despite bearish oil market fundamentals.  These include poor demand as evidenced by a recent dramatic drop in the Baltic Dry Index which recently posted the biggest fall since the start of the financial crisis falling 17% during the first week of August.  This index is generally viewed as a leading indicator, in particular for commodity prices, and therefore a broad measure of global economic demand which in turn impacts on consumer prices and therefore inflation.  In addition the oil market is having to contend with an ever expanding inventory and strains on storage capacity.  However, the extent to which oil traders and investors continue to ignore these factors remains to be seen as we now wait for tomorrow's crude oil inventory numbers and Thursday's expiration.  Overall WTI crude ended the trading session at $66.75 per barrel having earlier touched a low of $65.23 and reached a high of $67.69 per barrel.   Interestingly the number of oil futures in WTI was significantly lower under yesterday's candle thereby suggesting that in the medium term oil prices may well decline before making a further attempt at the $72 per barrel price point.

Short term bullish, medium term bearish, long term bullish.

Published on  Tue, Aug 18 2009, 08:10 GMT

Daily Oil Prices 17 August 2009

Mon, Aug 17 2009, 14:16 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A collision of technical and fundamental factors conspired in Friday's sharp decline of daily oil prices which has continued in this morning's oil trading session.   A sell off in equity markets prompted by much worse than expected consumer confidence data in the US stemmed the decline in the US Dollar resulting in falls across the commodity sector.  As outlined in Friday's commentary crude oil prices were already looking inherently weak following the continued failures to breach the $72 per barrel price point coupled with Thursday's shooting star candle.  This weakness was duly validated during Friday's oil trading session which closed with a wide spread down bar which broke both teh 9 and 14 day moving averages and left us with a strongly bearish engulfing pattern.  This sharp decline has marked an end to daily oil prices and we must now look towards the possible support levels which may provide a springboard to any reversal higher, and the first of any note is at the $60 per barrel price point.   Should we see a break and hold  below the 40 day moving average in oil trading today then this will confirm the bearish tone.  This week's oil stats may prove even more crucial coming just ahead of Thursday's WTI expiry.

Short term is bearish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

Published on  Mon, Aug 17 2009, 14:16 GMT

Oil Trading − Crude Oil Trading Analysis

Fri, Aug 14 2009, 11:42 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's oil trading price action saw crude oil prices reach an intraday high $72.22 per barrel and, at one stage, looked on course to challenge the $73 price point given the weakening of the US Dollar and higher equity markets.  However, oil futures trading suffered a bout of early profit taking and perhaps a recognition of the bearish fundamentals outlined in yesterday's oil market commentary which have been seriously out of kilter for some time.  The oil trading session ended with daily prices closing flat at $70.79 per barrel.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle on the crude oil chart ended as a doji cross with a deep upper wick as daily oil prices once again attempted to break above the resistance at the $73 level, but failing once again.  This is now becoming a worrying technical signal for oil bulls, particularly as the 9 day moving average apparently failed to provide any support.  The candle created is similar to a shooting star which may indicate structural weakness on the daily oil chart.  For any move higher we have to see a weekly break and hold above the $73 per barrel level and should this occur then we can be confident that a sustainable breakout has occurred and look towards higher crude oil prices in due course.

The short term is bearish, medium sideways, long term bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $70.03 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.88 (high of 07/08/09)

Support:    $69.72 (low of 05/08/09)                              Resistance: $72.42 (high of 06/08/09)

Support:    $68.84 (low of 12/08/09)                              Resistance: $72.22 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $72.96 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $75.55 (high of 07/08/09)

Support:    $72.24 (low of 04/08/09)                              Resistance: $74.89 (high of 04/08/09)

Support:    $71.68 (low of 12/08/09)                              Resistance: $74.72 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Aug 14 2009, 11:42 GMT

Oil Trading − Oil Market Analysis

Thu, Aug 13 2009, 10:19 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

In the oil trading markets, crude oil prices once again brushed off aside the latest US weekly inventories data, which despite being a bit of mixed bag, were nevertheless decidedly bearish with crude stocks coming in at +2.5m barrels, well ahead of the consensus forecast of an increase of +700k, reduced refining capacity and distillate stocks up by 800k barrels.  Instead daily oil prices took their cue from a weaker US Dollar and higher equities resulting from the FED statement which, apart from 10 words, was almost identical to that issued in July.  The Committee's decision to keep interest rates on hold, maintain their option to extend the bond buying programme and view that, in their opinion, the worst of the current recession/depression was now "levelling off" was sufficient to maintain investor confidence in riskier assets. This view seems to discount the EIA data in which US diesel demand, which is strongly correlated to economic activity, had weakened over the past three months.  Indeed the EIA has also warned that the global demand for distillates would "plummet" by about 1m barrels per day or 4.1% this year owing to weakness in industrial production in the developed world.  However, in successful oil trading we sometimes have to blend together apparent contradictory and paradoxical news.    Overall crude oil prices touched an intra day low of $68.84 before closing above the $70 per barrel price point.  From a technical perspective oil prices yesterday found support from the 14 day moving average and replicated Tuesday's candle but with a positive candle.  Given the support that is now evident from the 14 ma we should now see a bounce in crude oil prices with a further attempt to breach the $73 per barrel price handle in the short term and an attack on the $75 in the medium term.  My oil trading suggestion today is to look for small longs on an intra day basis but bearing in mind that there is rollover on the horizon and keeping a close eye on the Dollar Index.

The short and long term is bullish while the medium is sideways.

WTI:

Support:    $68.84 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.11 (high of 05/08/09)

Support:    $68.35 (low of 29/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.57 (high of 10/08/09)

Support:    $67.60 (low of 27/07/09)                              Resistance: $71.13 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $71.78 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $74.89 (high of 04/08/09)

Support:    $71.67 (low of 03/08/09)                              Resistance: $74.20 (high of 11/08/09)

Support:    $70.63 (low of 11/06/09)                              Resistance: $73.52 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Crude +2.5 (+0.7)      Distillates +0.8 (-0.3)    Gasoline -1.0 (-1.3)

Published on  Thu, Aug 13 2009, 10:19 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Aug 12 2009, 09:35 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Whilst most markets remained relatively quiet yesterday ahead of today's FOMC interest rate decision and statement daily oil prices reacted to a number of bearish fundamentals which saw WTI prices fall $1.15 to $69.45 and the ICE September Brent price fall by $1.04 to $72.46 a barrel.   These included some  cautious comments from OPEC which warned that current prices could only be sustained on "clearer signs of improvement in the global economy".  In addition OPEC stressed the high level of oil inventories in the developed world as well as the weakness in US gasoline demand this summer and rounded off their comments by stating "Despite the recent positive developments in crude prices, the market is fundamentally weak".  Furthermore, OPEC only expected Chinese oil demand to rise by 100k barrels a day this year to average 8.05m barrels per day in 2009.   At the same time the EIA also lowered its 2009 oil demand estimate when it stated in its new monthly energy forecast that it expects global oil consumption to drop by 1.71m barrels a day as opposed to the 1.56m it had signalled in its July report.  Some analysts had expected the EIA to increase the oil demand figures given the recent positive economic reports.  Today's crude oil inventory figures and FED statement could therefore prove an interesting cocktail: analysts are forecasting the inventory to rise by 500k barrels and gasoline to decrease by 1.1m barrels.  Although distillates are expected to remain the same, despite falling for the first time last week since June, stocks still remain close to a 24yr high.  Refining capacity is also seen decreasing by 0.3% to 84.2%.  From a technical perspective yesterday's oil price oscillated between the $71 and $69 price band, ending the session with a wide bodied doji candle with wicks to both top and bottom, although the lower wick did seem to find some support at the 14 day moving average.  Today's FED meeting and, in particular, the accompanying statement will set the tone for crude oil prices in the short to medium term should there be a dramatic reaction in the currency markets.  Any signal from the FED that interest rates may rise sooner rather than later would be seen by the markets as dollar positive and prove bearish for crude oil prices.

With the recent price volatility in crude oil, this has presented many trading opportunities on both sides of the market, but to be successful you need an oil broker who not only understands the market, but also offers tight spreads, along with the latest news from around the world affecting the energy complex. One of the keys to success is to practise first, so if you would like a free trial of one of the best oil trading platforms around, then please just follow the link here, and get started trading oil - and you may still be eligible for your $1000, cash back !!!

The short term is bearish, the medium term sideways and the long term bullish.

Published on  Wed, Aug 12 2009, 09:35 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, Aug 11 2009, 11:15 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The oil market too appears to be waiting for the outcome of this week's two day Fed meeting as yesterday's price action on the daily oil chart was restricted to the current trading range of $69.71 to $72.88.  Even a modest rise in the US Dollar failed to tempt daily oil prices higher which ended the oil trading session 14 cents up to close at $70.69 per barrel.  In addition oil traders will also watching this week's oil stats for evidence of any pickup in oil demand.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle has given us few clues as to any longer term direction for daily oil prices and the only real issue remains as to whether the $73 per barrel price handle will remain unbroken or whether this will be breached in due course.  Certainly from the last few days, and looking back at June's price action on the oil chart, we have now seen no less than six failed attempts in as many weeks to break this level.  Last week's hanging man candle certainly reinforced this view, but has so far not been validated and indeed yesterday's price action found support at the 9 day moving average so we could see a further attempt to break the $73 per barrel price point in due course.  With the FOMC meeting due to start today all the markets are waiting nervously for both the interest rate decision and any associated statements, particularly with the increased optimism following last week's Non Farm Payroll figures.  At the moment crude oil prices appear to be taking their cues from the market's sentiment towards the US Dollar which at present appears positive.

The short and medium trends are bearish while the long term is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $70.08 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.88 (high of 07/08/09)

Support:    $69.72 (low of 05/08/09)                              Resistance: $72.11 (high of 05/08/09)

Support:    $69.35 (low of 03/08/09)                              Resistance: $71.57 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $73.04 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $75.55 (high of 07/08/09)

Support:    $72.24 (low of 04/08/09)                              Resistance: $74.89 (high of 04/08/09)

Support:    $71.67 (low of 03/08/09)                              Resistance: $74.26 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Aug 11 2009, 11:15 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:31 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The issue for daily oil prices seems to be whether to track a mildly stronger US dollar or respond to the recent, and continuing, gains in equities.  Friday's price action in crude appeared to take the former as the price of oil fell $1.22 to settle at $70.58 per barrel ending the oil trading session on a wide spread down bar with a deep upper wick.  Technically oil prices are beginning to falter at this current price band and would appear to be struggling once again to breach the $73 per barrel price point.  Indeed Friday's candle with its deep upper wick merely confirmed this sentiment following a succession of hanging men candles, indicative of both potential weakness and indecision and a reversal to the recent upwards move on the oil chart.  The resistance level is certainly adding its own pressure and should we see a break and hold below the $69 price point then this may well trigger further falls, particularly if this is associated with a breach of the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  If these factors combine then we may well see a test of the initial support at $68 per barrel and failure here could lead to a deeper move back to $65 per barrel in the short term.

The short term is bearish, the medium term is sideways while the long term is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $70.36 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $73.35 (high of 30/06/09)

Support:    $69.72 (low of 05/08/09)                              Resistance: $72.88 (Friday’s high)

Support:    $69.35 (low of 03/08/09)                              Resistance: $72.42 (high of 06/08/09)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $73.13 (Friday’s low)                                    Resistance: $76.00 (high of 06/08/09)

Support:    $72.24 (low of 04/08/09)                              Resistance: $75.55 (Friday’s high)

Support:    $71.67 (low of 03/08/09)                              Resistance: $74.89 (high of 04/08/09)

Published on  Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:31 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:24 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The effect of today's Non Farm Payroll Data cannot be underestimated for a number reasons as it proves, once and for all, the cat's cradle that is the financial markets.   Should the numbers come in better than expected then this should prove beneficial for equities as the market has proof positive that the worst is definitely over and the recent stock market rally has been founded on solid fact rather than mere sentiment and wishful thinking, low volumes notwithstanding.  This picture would also confirm that the worst of the downturn in the housing sector is over and that a stable housing market could even feed through into accurate pricing for the sub prime mortgages still sitting on the Banks' balance sheet.  In addition it would signal that the great American consumer is now ready to start spending once again.  The consequence of this scenario is that the US Dollar would continue to weaken and commodities, such as crude oil continue higher.   However, if the number is worse than expected then clearly the worst is not over, consumer spending will fail to pick up, and equity markets could suffer a serious correction.   This could lead to a bounce back in the US Dollar which would trigger a fall in daily oil prices and establish that despite China and oil demand from the emerging markets, the fundamentals do not support the current price level for crude oil.   From a technical perspective yesterday's oil trading ended the session with a doji candle which failed to make any inroads above the current resistance level at $73 per barrel, suggesting that daily oil prices may be taking a breather before pushing higher.  This is reinforced by the fact that Wednesday's candle could be considered a "hanging man" and therefore indicating a degree of short term weakness.  Any reversal lower may only be a temporary move, but for the upwards trend to continue we need to see a clear break and hold above the $73 price level which would then give us confidence in playing the long side once again.  With both the 9 and 14 day moving averages having crossed the 40 there is nothing to suppose on the oil chart that we are looking at anything other than a short term pause or reversal in crude oil prices.

Published on  Fri, Aug 7 2009, 11:24 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Aug 6 2009, 09:50 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices are delicately poised, reflecting a minor wobble of confidence which appears to have entered the equity markets.  In particular the recent falls in the Shanghai Composite but more worryingly yesterday's S&P500 chart ended the day with an enormous amount of volume sitting under a doji cross candle - a dangerous and anomalous signal.  In addition the markets also appear to be waiting for tomorrow's Non Farm Payroll numbers which may act as the catalyst for this current period of recent bout of wavering, and for daily oil prices this may well provide the fuel to propel oil prices higher.  Technically yesterday's candle also provided a worrying signal in that it ended the oil trading session as a hanging man, which is always considered a bearish signal when it appears at the top of any rally.  This bearish signal is also reinforced by the fact that it has occurred in the midst of the congestion area in the $70 to $73 price band which again is not an encouraging sign.  The depth of the lower wick is particularly pronounced and with the narrow body above makes this a clearly defined candle.  Naturally, we need to wait for this signal to be validated either today or tomorrow and until then my trading suggestion is to stand aside.

Published on  Thu, Aug 6 2009, 09:50 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Aug 5 2009, 10:13 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's limited move in daily oil prices came against the backdrop of somewhat subdued equity markets, a modest strengthening of the US Dollar and a degree of profit taking as the oil market now looks forward to today's crude oil inventories, ADP numbers and tomorrow's ECB rate decision.    As any, or all, of these will impact both the equity and currency markets there will be a consequent spillover into the energy complex.   Technically the daily oil price chart is now giving us some strong bullish signals, particularly from the 9 and 14 day moving averages which have now crossed above the 40 day moving average.  In addition yesterday's deep shadow to the daily candle would suggest that oil bulls are still firmly in control and that we should expect a push higher in due course, particularly as we now appear to have penetrated much of the resistance in place in the $68 to $71 price region, which should now provide a platform for a move higher.  However, for complete confidence in an attack at the $75 per barrel price handle we should wait for some clear water to appear before entering into any longer term trend trades.  Overall crude oil prices ended the day at $71.77 per barrel, just shy of the high of the day which was at $72.10 per barrel.

The short term is bullish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

WTI

Support:    68.78                   Resistance:  72.35
Support:    62.79                   Resistance:  67.45
Support:    59.47                   Resistance:  62.54

API reported on Tuesday  1.5m drop in oil  inventories; a 2.1m increase in gasoline stocks; and a 1m drop in distillate inventories. Refinery capacity was seen at 82.6%.

DOE Forecast for Today

+0.5     -1.4      +0.9        -0.4
Crude Inventory (+0.5)
Gasoline (-1.4)
Distillates (+0.9)
Capacity: (-0.4% to 82.6%)

Published on  Wed, Aug 5 2009, 10:13 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, Aug 4 2009, 10:07 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The oil market's ability to either ignore or take fright at its own fundamentals is really quite extraordinary and must not be underestimated given that tomorrow's crude oil inventory is expected to show a further build.  The forecast numbers are for the inventory to increase by 500k barrels, gasoline to decrease by 1.3m barrels and distillates, which include heating oil and diesel to increase by 800k.  Last week's numbers did cause daily oil prices to drop somewhat dramatically only for them to recover in an equally dramatic fashion the next day as oil prices decided to hitch a ride on the back of surging equity markets.   The debate is now whether the oil price is in fact sustainable at the current level as investors continue to pin their hopes on a strong recovery.  Oil bulls have also been helped by chronic Dollar weakness, in particular against the Euro, when after months of consolidation the Euro (along with the British Pound and Canadian Loonie) finally broke out of their sideways consolidation.  Oil bulls were further cheered by China which saw a combination of strong manufacturing data and record pace refining activity.  For the markets it really is a case of East is best.  From a technical perspective we are now at a pivotal point on the oil chart following the strong surge higher of the last few days and yesterday's candle ended the oil trading session deeply embedded in the consolidation of June.  For further progress in the price of oil we now need to see this level breached with a hold, preferably, above the $72 per barrel level.  Should this occur in due course then I fully expect oil prices to continue rising in the short term fully supported by all three moving averages which are now crossing the 40 day to point higher once again.  Should this occur we are still on course to hit our initial target of $75 per barrel in the short term.  Overall in yesterday's oil session WTI oil prices traded in a $4.53 range before ending the day at $66.94 per barrel.

The short term is bullish, the medium sideways and long term bullish.

WTI

Support:    62.38                 Resistance:  72.43

Support:    62.86                 Resistance:  67.89

Support:    61.14                  Resistance:  62.58

Brent

Support:    70.24                 Resistance: 72.58

Support:   68.33                  Resistance:  69.80

Support:  61.10                   Resistance:  67.47

Published on  Tue, Aug 4 2009, 10:07 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Aug 3 2009, 12:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following Thursday somewhat unexpected strong reversal in crude oil prices which created a two bar hammer, Friday's surge higher was only to be expected and should teach me to trust my instinct, judgment and analysis, with the high of the day piercing the strong resistance immediately ahead.  The upwards momentum in daily oil prices has been confirmed in early oil trading this morning along with the crossing of the 9 day moving average above the 40 which has also added weight to this early bullish move.  With oil prices now powering higher, a breach of the resistance between the $70 and $72 price level should lead to an attack on our initial target of $75 a barrel which I have outlined several times in the past.  Trading in oil is now a dollar play and with the Dollar Index increasingly fragile, as investors pile into equities and with commentators increasingly bullish about an economic recovery sooner rather than later, it is only a matter of time before we achieve this initial price level followed by a move towards $80 and above.  Oil prices have also been boosted with comments in the media that oil supplies will begin to decline within the next decade and at a faster rate than had been anticipated.  Peak Oil it seems has definitely passed.  Overall crude oil prices opened Friday's session at $66.69 and closed the session at $69.45 barrel.  With reasonably healthy trading volumes my trading suggestion for crude oil is to look to trade the long side, buying on any dips on the hourly chart.

Published on  Mon, Aug 3 2009, 12:30 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, Jul 31 2009, 10:00 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's dramatic reversal in the fortunes of daily oil prices can only be described as "bizarre" as there is no logic than can be applied either technically or fundamentally to a move of such magnitude.   The fundamental picture has not changed as the world is still awash with oil and oil products which, even if demand were to turn upwards, will still take time to work through the system.  One explanation we can apply is that with equity markets determined to hold onto recent gains and speculating that recovery is very much on the horizon the oil market is factoring in such a scenario.  Of course our good friends at Goldman Sachs can always be relied upon for a plausible explanation, their latest being that the recent weakness in crude fundamentals is  only "temporary" and that they are still calling for crude oil prices to be at $85 dollars a barrel by year end.  In addition the oil market was also reassured by the Bank of China's declaration that it would continue with its loose monetary policy and continue its lending programme.  Given that the Bank of China is probably one of the few banks with any money to lend it's no wonder the markets responded so strongly.  In addition yesterday's move was not accompanied by any major weakening of the US Dollar as the Dollar Index moved sideways for most of the day, and with no large swings in Dollar sentiment  other commodities such as gold and silver only posted  minor moves higher.  Finally there is always good old fashioned market manipulation which is ironic given the current CFTC hearings!   From a technical perspective (although I am not sure whether this has any validity given the above), yesterday's  wide spread up candle completely obliterated the losses of Wednesday, closing back above both the 9 day and 14 day moving averages and only marginally below the 40 day, creating in effect a two bar reversal, from which one would expect a move higher.  Given the above analysis, and the fact that it is both month end and the weekend it may be prudent to step aside from any oil trading today and wait for next week.  If this is a true move, then we need to see a test of the strong resistance above, and a breakout out in due course. If it is false (as I suspect) then we will see a continuation of a move lower following the bearish signals and break below all three moving averages of Wednesday.  Overall crude oil closed the session at $66.94 per barrel, trading between a high of $67.29 and a low of $62.76.  Have a great weekend!

The short term is bearish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $65.48   (low of  03/07/09)                           Resistance: $68.85    (high of  28/07/09)

Support:    $64.74   (low of  29/05/09)                           Resistance: $68.68    (high of  01/06/09)

Support:    $64.38   (low of  23/07/09)                           Resistance: $68.22    (high of  24/07/09)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $69.07    (low of 28/07/09)                           Resistance: $ 71.96    (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $68.69    (low of 24/07/09)                           Resistance: $ 71.36    (high of 28/07/09)

Support:    $68.10    (low of 29/06/09)                           Resistance: $ 71.20    (high of 10/06/09)

Published on  Fri, Jul 31 2009, 10:00 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Jul 30 2009, 07:57 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Daily oil prices reacted badly to yesterday's reported crude stock build of more than 5m barrels - not entirely unexpected given Tuesday's bearish API numbers, with crude prices touching a low of $62.70 per barrel before ending the day at $62.96 per barrel.  As usual this dramatic fall was aided and abetted by a consequent strengthening of the US Dollar and, with the exception of the Shanghai composite, most equity markets did manage to hold onto their recent gains.  However, the decline in the Shanghai Composite of almost 7% is worrying given that back in 2007 it was such a fall which heralded the start of the current financial meltdown.  From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread down bar on the daily oil chart, firmly validated the bearish engulfing candle which we analyzed in Tuesday's commentary for daily oil prices, closing the oil trading session having breached all three moving averages during the day - a worrying sign for oil bulls. What is clear from yesterday's price action is that the $69 - $73 price point is now a solid object in the way of any future move higher for daily oil prices, and secondly that the move lower has considerable momentum, given the spread of the candles over the last two days. In addition the fall pierced the moving averages which provided little in the way of any support, suggesting that the rally of the last two weeks has now come to a shuddering halt, crushed under the weight of the change in market sentiment.  As with many other commodities which have suffered a similar fate in the last two days, such as gold and silver, the key will be whether the various technical support levels now coming into play, will provide any solid foundations, or simply be blasted out of  the way as  oil prices power lower. The first of these is now firmly in sight at the $61 per barrel price level, and should this fail to hold then a deeper move to the $59 price handle is likely. If this level is breached then a return to the $52 per barrel price point is likely in the medium term, and should oil prices reach this level again then this should provide the platform for any re-basing in daily oil prices.

The short term outlook is bearish, the medium term is bearish and the long term is sideways.


WTI
Support   62.67         Resistance  67.89
Support   59.40        Resistance   62.56
Support   57.35        Resistance   59.26

Published on  Thu, Jul 30 2009, 07:57 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Jul 29 2009, 09:55 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's API figures appear broadly supportive of today's EIA forecast numbers but only to the extent that here too stocks of distillates are expected to increase and refining capacity decrease.  API data showed distillates increasing by 117k barrels while today's EIA numbers are expected to show distillates increasing by almost 1m barrels.  Whether these bearish fundamentals will be ignored by the oil market remains to be seen but from a technical perspective Monday's shooting star candle, which was the first signal of potential weakness in the recent recovery of daily oil prices, was indeed confirmed yesterday as the price of crude fell sharply, closing the oil trading session with a wide spread down bar.  As outlined in yesterday's oil market analysis, we now need to see whether this is simply a short term market correction, following the recent rally in oil prices, or a longer term reversal, and much of this will depend on whether the strong resistance created during the consolidating price action of June, holds firm.  This was indeed the case yesterday, with an initial attempt to move higher promptly squashed, as the price of oil failed to make any headway into this strong congestion area, with the high of the day failing at the same price level as on Monday. Should we see the reversal continue, then any break and hold below the 14 day and 40 day moving averages will signal a much deeper move, possibly as far as the $60 per barrel price point once again. For the time being, the recent rally now seems to have run out of steam, and for any move higher we will have to wait for a break and hold above the $72 per barrel price level.

The short term outlook is bearish, the medium term is sideways and the long term is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $64.96  (low of 03/06/09 )                             Resistance: $68.85  ( high of 28/07/09)

Support:    $64.38  (low of 23/07/09)                              Resistance: $68.22  ( high of 24/07/09)

Support:    $63.98  (low of 21/07/09)                              Resistance: $67.48  ( high of 23/07/09)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $68.05  (low of 25/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.20  (high   of 10/06/09)

Support:    $67.58  (low of 24/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.81  (high of 26/06/09)

Support:    $67.05  (low of 02/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.46  (high of 24/07/09)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Crude  -1.2       Distillates  +0.9        Gasoline  -0.1

Published on  Wed, Jul 29 2009, 09:55 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, Jul 28 2009, 07:47 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's price action in daily oil prices, failed to follow the strong up bar on Friday, closing the oil trading session with a weak shooting star candle which may well be the first signal of an impending short term reversal in the price of oil. Whilst this weakness may only be short term, the major resistance ahead in the $68 to $72 price level is now coming into play once again, and for any move higher we must see a breach of this level, with a break and hold above, if we are to continue moving higher in the short term. The key, of course, will be whether the price of oil has sufficient momentum from the fundamental news to break through this barrier, but yesterday's candle may be the first signal that the market is taking a breather, and we may see a period of sideways consolidation at this level, before any attempt to push higher is attempted once again.

Published on  Tue, Jul 28 2009, 07:47 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Jul 27 2009, 10:33 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

A year after the peak in the commodity cycle, and an all time high for crude oil prices, this week sees all seven of the world's largest private sector oil groups reporting half year results, starting with BP on Tuesday.  Although the main focus for oil investors will be to see how successful these companies have been in coping with the subsequent dramatic fall in crude, the recent, and equally dramatic, recovery in daily oil prices will determine the scope that oil companies (and producer countries) will have to fund future investment plans.  From a technical perspective crude oil prices finished last week with another strong move higher, ending the oil trading session at $68.05 per barrel on a wide spread up bar, closing above the 40 day moving average, and now looking to approach the strong resistance level created during June.  This level will no doubt prove to be seminal in any move higher for daily oil prices.  A break through this level will open the way for a renewed attack on the $75 per barrel price point, much discussed by analysts and the oil producers before the rude awakening of the sell off in early July.  With Friday's break, and with the 9 day now crossing the 14 day moving average the signs are encouraging, but for any sustained rally higher, we still need to see this resistance breached with momentum which will then provide the platform for a move higher.  To this brew must also be added the ever weakening US Dollar and performance (or otherwise) of equity markets, with most ending the week on fresh highs.   Should these gains hold and the Dollar continue to weaken then crude oil prices (along with other commodities) will benefit.

The short term bullish,  medium term is sideways, the long term bullish.

Published on  Mon, Jul 27 2009, 10:33 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, Jul 24 2009, 11:17 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The positive correlation between the price of crude and equity markets continues apace with the Dow finally breaching and holding above the 9000 level for the first time since January.   This mutual admiration seems determined to ignore the weak oil market fundamentals which has seen gasoline and distillate stocks in the US increasing for a straight sixth week and with unemployment in the US still rising it is difficult to see how quickly this surplus is likely to be consumed.  From a technical perspective  yesterday's candle on the daily oil prices chart has provided us with several interesting points to consider, with the price of oil closing higher on the day and ending the oil trading session as a wide spread up bar, with small shadows to both top and bottom.  First, it is important to note that the whilst oil prices broke above the 40 day moving average, they failed to hold at this level, with the closing price ending the trading session below once again. Whilst this is a negative signal, it is counterbalanced to some extent by the crossing of the 9 day moving average above the 14 day.  Secondly, the high of the day failed to penetrate the strong resistance level which we are now approaching rapidly as the price of oil recovers lost ground.  This level will prove pivotal in any move higher, and we MUST see a break and hold above this level for any longer term upwards move to be sustained.  It is interesting to note from this morning's early oil trading that the open has been gapped up, suggesting that the bullish momentum remains firmly in play, and in addition the open is now firmly above the 40 day moving average which seems to be providing the support required, so the signs are encouraging for a move higher today. Longer term we need to see a breach of the $67 to $73 price region for a continued move higher towards our target of $75 per barrel.

The short and medium term is sideways, the long term bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $65.48  (low of 03/07/09)                             Resistance: $70.21    (high of   22/06/09)

Support:    $64.96   (low of  03/06/09)                            Resistance: $69.04     ( high of  02/06/09)

Support:    $64.38    (low of 23/07/09)                            Resistance: $68.68     ( high of 01/06/09 )

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $68.40       (low of  30/06/09)                             Resistance: $70.81   (high  of  26/06/09)

Support:    $68.08     (low of   0 1/07/09)                           Resistance: $70.51  (high of   25/06/09)

Support:    $67.58     (low of  24/06/09)                             Resistance: $70.06   (high of  09/06/09)

Published on  Fri, Jul 24 2009, 11:17 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Jul 23 2009, 11:29 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's weekly DOE figures were interesting in that it was the cut in refining activity which seems to have caught the attention of the oil market.  Although this reduction does not appear to have translated into a build in the stock of crude it does indicate that a lack of demand will add pressure to daily oil prices and to the front of the WTI curve.  During the trading session crude oil prices fell as low as $63.76 per barrel, trading in a $2 range before settling at $65.40 per barrel.   In fact oil prices reacted in much the same way as many other markets yesterday, during Ben Bernanke's testimony as his comments were first absorbed, and then dissected and analysed for any hidden nuggets as to the future direction for FED fiscal and economic policy based on the current economic picture. As a result, prices in equities, commodities, bonds, currency and treasuries all oscillated during the day as each piece of news was released or a question answered.  From a technical perspective crude oil finished the day with a long legged doji with a deep lower shadow, which suggests that we may see a move higher today in oil prices.  This view is confirmed by the 9 day moving average which is now crossing above the 14 day, but before oil bulls can claim victory we will need see a sustained break and hold above the 40 day moving average on the oil chart, coupled with 'a breach of the resistance at $67 to $70 level.  However, this cannot be guaranteed as the bearish 'shooting star' candle from Tuesday could still hold sway, and if this is validated in due course, we may see a reversal lower in the short term for daily oil prices.  However this candle occurred following a gapped up open, the technical picture is far from clear.

The short and medium term trend is sideways, long term trend bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $63.98 (low of   21/07/09)                               Resistance: $67.15   (high of  03/07/09)

Support:    $63.76  (low of 22/07/09)                               Resistance: $66. 68    ( high of 21/07/09 )

Support:    $63.39   (low of 06/07/09)                              Resistance: $65.76    ( Yesterday's high )

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $66.21      (low of 02/07/09 )                             Resistance: $69.19  (high  of  02/07/09)

Support:    $65.69    (low of  21/07/09)                               Resistance: $68. 65 (high of  03/06/09)

Support:    $65.19   (low of  20/07/09)                             Resistance: $67. 92  (high of 21/07/09)

Published on  Thu, Jul 23 2009, 11:29 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Jul 22 2009, 13:38 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's candle on the daily chart for crude oil prices, provides several interesting technical points for us to consider for today's oil trading. Like many other markets, the price action was largely driven by FED Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments as he began a two day testimony on the US economy, and likely controls for both monetary and fiscal policy moving forwards as they confront the issues of both inflation and deflation. So moving to consider the candle, there are three interesting points to note as follows  - first, the opening price of the day was gapped up, on a rising window, from the close of the previous session, indicatin a bullish tone to daily oil prices. Secondly, and in contrast to this signal, the high of the day found strong resistance from the 40 day moving average which it failed to breach, and finally this price also failed to penetrate the strong level of resistance in place at the $67 per barrel level.

So in summary a bullish signal to start but counterbalanced by two bearish signals during the oil trading session, and overall not a very clear picture. In addition oil prices still remain bounded by the 40 day average above, and the 9 and 14 below, and until we see a clear break and hold above the former, then the recovery in daily oil prices may be fragile for the time being, and based on yesterday's candle we may well see a reversal today in the price of oil.  However, this will largely depend, once again, on the tone of comments from Ben Bernanke as he starts day two of his testimony which will allow the markets to absorb all his views and react accordingly.  In addition today's oil inventory figures which, according to analysts, are expected to show a further increase in gasoline and distillate stocks may spook equity markets as they too begin to take a reality check as to the extent (or otherwise) of a recovery in both oil demand and the global economy.

Short term bearish, medium term sideways, long term bullish.

Support     $61.23          Resistance $67.45
Support     $58.30          Resistance $60.56
Support     $51.82          Resistance $57.90

 

Published on  Wed, Jul 22 2009, 13:38 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Jul 20 2009, 17:32 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Daily oil prices on Friday, once again staged a strong recovery from their recent sharp sell off, with the daily candle ending the session as a wide spread up bar, and with minor shadows to both top and bottom.  Most significantly the close of the session managed to break and hold above the 14 day moving average suggesting that the hammer candle of Monday, has been confirmed and validated, and that we should expect to see a further rise in oil prices in due course. However before we become too optimistic, there are several targets that need to be achieved before we see a re-test of the $70 per barrel price point once again. The first of these is a breach and hold above the 40 day moving average which is a key technical indicator, and secondly we will need to see the resistance now immediately ahead in the $67 to $68 level, broken, with oil prices holding firm above this level. Should the two factors outlined above combine, then we should see further run higher to test the strong resistance at the $70 - $73 price handle in the medium term.  Naturally many other factors will pay an increasingly important role in this picture, not least the take up of gasoline during the US driving season, the ongoing performance of equity markets and their relationship to the US dollar, and finally the forthcoming hurricane season will no doubt play its part in due course as we move forward into the second half of the year.    Given these factors this week's oil stats will be watched particularly closely and with over 75% of corporate earnings still to come we can be sure that markets will continue to be volatile as investors flip flop between risk appetite and risk aversion.  In addition if the weathermen are correct it seems we may see the return of El Nino where weather patterns are disrupted and commodity prices are affected.  More in later posts. Overall crude oil prices reached an inter day high of $65.00 per barrel before ending the day at $64.44.
The short term is bullish, the medium term sideways, the long term bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $62.78  (14 day moving av)                             Resistance: $66.81  (high of  06/07/09)

Support:    $62.10 (low of 17/07/09)                              Resistance: $66.21  (high of  2 8/05/09)

Support:    $61.46  (low of 16/07/09)                              Resistance: $65.81  (high of  07/07/09)
OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $62.81  (Friday’s low)                                     Resistance: $68.55  (high of  02 /06/09)

Support:    $62.59  (low of    7/07/09)                              Resistance: $68.03  (high of  01/06/09)

Support:    $61.78  (low of  28/05/09)                              Resistance: $67.13  (high of   03/07/09)

Published on  Mon, Jul 20 2009, 17:32 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, Jul 17 2009, 10:54 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The better than expected GDP growth figures from China appear to have had little impact on the price of crude oil which is taking its cue from the equity markets, a weak US Dollar and news from the API that in the first half of 2009 oil demand in the US has fallen by almost 6%, its lowest level in a decade.  These elements are to some extent reflected in the S&P500 where both the bulls and the bears are claiming various head and shoulder patterns as they own and supportive of their own prejudices.   Technically yesterday's candle was interesting for several reasons, first and from a negative perspective, it failed to follow through on the bullish momentum created on Wednesday.  However, on the positive side the deep lower wick suggests a modicum of bullish sentiment in the market and secondly the close of the day finished above the 9 day moving average once again, which reinforces this particular view.  On balance therefore a mixed message on the daily oil chart.  The $60 per barrel price handle seems to have stopped the rot in daily oil prices and should we see a break and hold above both the 14 and 40 day moving averages in due course then we may well see a recovery in daily oil prices but the strong resistance now in place at the $70 per barrel level will take considerable force and momentum to pierce.  Overall crude finished 34 cents higher to settle at $63.22 having at one stage touched an inter day low of $61.46 per barrel.

The short and medium term sideways while the long term is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $61.46 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $64.46 (high of 27/05/09)

Support:    $60.66 (low of 15/07/09)                              Resistance: $63.60 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $60.03 (low of 14/07/09)                              Resistance: $63.22 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $61.99 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $64.48 (high of 28/05/09)

Support:    $61.33 (low of 15/07/09)                              Resistance: $63.83 (high of 15/07/09)

Support:    $60.48 (low of 14/07/09)                              Resistance: $63.30 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jul 17 2009, 10:54 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Jul 16 2009, 11:22 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's sharp rebound in crude oil prices reflected an increased appetite for risk as equity markets rallied thereby precipitating a consequent slide in the US Dollar.   In addition the oil market appears to have discounted the higher than expected gasoline stocks, instead taking a bullish cue from the larger than anticipated draw in the crude inventory.   It is interesting to note that it is exactly one year since the great oil price spike (14th July 2008 - Bastille Day) but following a drop of almost 20% since 30th June 2009 this anniversary has been celebrated with daily oil prices gaining 3% or $1.89 yesterday to close at $61.69.  From a technical perspective yesterday's up bar closed marginally above the 9 day moving average but well below the 14 and 40 which continue to provide a bearish picture.  With the break and hold the psychological $60 per barrel price handle and with some support at this level, we may see prices push in the short term - boosted perhaps by better than expected results in the equity markets (today we have Google and IBM reporting) - but should this level fail to hold then we may see a fall back, possibly to re-test the $55 per barrel of mid May.

The short term is bullish, medium and long term sideways.

WTI:

Support:    $59.80 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $63.81 (high of 27/05/09)

Support:    $59.15 (low of 14/07/09)                              Resistance: $62.67 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $58.32 (low of 13/07/09)                              Resistance: $61.99 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $61.33 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $64.89 (high of 07/07/09)

Support:    $60.48 (low of 14/07/09)                              Resistance: $64.48 (high of 28/05/09)

Support:    $59.49 (low of 13/07/09)                              Resistance: $63.83 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -2.8 (-1.5)      Distillates +0.5 (+1.8)    Gasoline +1.4 (+0.8)

Published on  Thu, Jul 16 2009, 11:22 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Jul 15 2009, 12:50 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The much vaunted Goldman Sachs second quarter figures certainly lived up to expectations, injecting some much needed optimism into the markets as well as speculation that a degree of risk tolerance may be also be returning. However, as far as far as the oil market is concerned it is EIA stats due out later today which should give us some idea for the short direction of crude oil prices.  From a technical perspective yesterday's price action on the oil chart gave the oil bulls some hope as daily oil prices touched an inter day high of $61.45 per barrel.  However, a failure to break through and hold above the 9 day moving average appeared to trigger some technical selling and daily oil prices ended the day 53 cents lower at $59.55.  Technically the $60 per barrel level remains a tipping point partly as a result of the psychological zero/zero aspect and partly due to the support region created back in early to mid May.  Yesterday's candle failed to provide any convincing validation of the hammer of Monday although it is too early to discount this technical signal given the creeping weakness in the US Dollar as evidenced on the Dollar Index which is now looking in severe danger of rolling over into a deeper move lower.   For any sustained reversal in the price of crude oil we need to see a break and hold above all three moving averages, coupled with some momentum and with the $62.50 price handle providing a springboard to a move higher.

The short term bearish, medium and long term sideways.

WTI:

Support:    $59.15 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $62.67 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $58.32 (low of 13/07/09)                              Resistance: $61.66 (high of 09/07/09)

Support:    $57.80 (low of 12/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.45 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $60.48 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $64.48 (high of 28/05/09)

Support:    $59.49 (low of 13/07/09)                              Resistance: $63.13 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $58.83 (low of 21/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.26 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -1.5      Distillates +1.8    Gasoline +0.8

Published on  Wed, Jul 15 2009, 12:50 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, Jul 14 2009, 10:24 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Although yesterday's somewhat lacklustre price action in daily oil prices was somewhat surprising given the late gains in equities and a small slide in the US Dollar, the reality is that the oil market is waiting for the earnings season to start in earnest as well as the inventory figures.   For the oil market it is this combination which will give oil traders some idea of the future direction of crude oil prices.  Aside from Goldman Sachs, who are expected to post some stellar results before the bell, the consensus appears to be that corporate results will be at best, mixed and at worst, dire.   In addition although analysts expect crude inventories to decrease by an average of 1.5m barrels it is the distillate numbers that oil traders will be watching with particular interest as they are expected to show an average increase of 1.8m barrels.  Not only are distillate levels at a 24 year high, storage is also becoming a serious problem.  It is this continuing lack of demand which will weigh on oil prices hence the pause on the oil chart.   From a technical perspective daily yesterday's candle was interesting for several reasons: first the session closed with a small hammer formation suggesting that we may see a temporary rally in crude oil prices in the next few days.  Naturally for any longer term reversal we need to wait for this candle to be validated.  Second, the open of Monday's oil trading session was gapped up from Friday's close, once again suggesting that the oil bulls were in the market looking to buy cheap, following the recent steep sell off which has seen oil prices dip below the $60.00 per barrel mark on three occasions.  Finally, the low of the day found some support from the consolidation region created in mid May and with all these factors combining it is possible that we may see a bounce in the next few days.  However, the big caveat to this technical analysis is the fundamental picture outlined above.   Overall oil prices gained 6 cents on the day to settle at $60.06 per barrel.

The short term is sideways, medium bearish & long term sideways.

WTI:

Support:    $58.32 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $62.67 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $57.80 (low of 12/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.66 (high of 09/07/09)

Support:    $57.40 (low of 13/05/09)                              Resistance: $60.68 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $59.49 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $63.13 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $58.83 (low of 21/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.17 (high of 09/07/09)

Support:    $58.41 (low of 26/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.59 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jul 14 2009, 10:24 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Jul 13 2009, 11:14 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The fun run in daily oil prices appears to be over for the time being as traders and investors bail out of all risky assets as evidenced by last week's surge into the Japanese Yen and, to a lesser extent, the US Dollar.  With the pendulum still swinging between inflationists and deflationists this week's earning season in the US will be even more significant as US giants such as Microsoft and Apple release their latest figures and we can expect a degree of volatility across all markets as traders and investors are forced to refocus on the broader market fundamentals.   From a technical perspective crude oil prices have lost over 10% in one week and on Friday reached an inter day low of $58.72 per barrel, a price last seen on May 18th.  Whilst the lack of liquidity and thin market conditions have undoubtedly led to this sharp price action move, the general background is one where all market participants are returning to the real world as they become way following the euphoria following the central bank decisions back in April and May.  In other words risk aversion is returning with a vengeance.  Friday's candle ended the session with a down bar once again to make this the 9th in a row, but it is interesting to note that the spread was lower than those of the previous days and indeed followed Thursday's doji candle suggesting that we may see temporary buying or short covering following the sharp sell off.  In addition the $60 per barrel price handle is both a psychological and technical support area and as such we may see this provide a platform for a short term recovery in crude.  However, the bearish picture is reinforced by the 40 day moving average crossing above the 9 and 14 and should this begin to turn then this will add to the downwards pressure.  A break and hold below $57.25 could well open a much deeper move, possibly even as far as re-testing the strong support in the $50.00 per barrel region in due course.

The short and medium terms are bearish while the long term is sideways.

WTI:

Support:    $58.72 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $62.67 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $57.80 (low of 12/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.66 (high of 09/07/09)

Support:    $57.40 (low of 13/05/09)                              Resistance: $60.82 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $59.53 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $63.13 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $58.83 (low of 21/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.17 (high of 09/07/09)

Support:    $58.41 (low of 26/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.44 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jul 13 2009, 11:14 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, Jul 10 2009, 11:43 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Despite slightly higher equity markets and a sharply weaker US Dollar crude oil prices were unable to benefit as the bears tighten their grip on the daily oil chart.  At one stage during yesterday's oil trading crude prices dropped to $59.25 per barrel ending the day as a long legged doji. Not only is the oil market having to take account of the wider bearish market fundamentals, but may also have to deal with much stricter trading regulations as politicians attempt to take out both speculation and volatility from crude oil prices.   From a technical perspective yesterday doji candle suggested a degree of indecision in the oil market with the bulls and bears battling it out during the day for control and closing on a score draw.  Indeed overall crude finished a mere 3 cents lower to close at $60.30 per barrel.  However, yesterday's candle was interesting for 2 reasons: first following the rampant decline of 7 straight down days, this was the first technical indication that we may see a short term squeeze with a possible move higher.  Second, this candle occurred at the psychological $60.00 per barrel price handle which in turn aligns neatly with the support area created in late May - perhaps the oil market is drawing a line in the sand!! Given this technical picture, it is interesting to note in this morning's oil trading session, that open price was gapped up (albeit only marginally) but adding some credence to this analysis.  As a result we may well see some consolidation at this level and possibly even a small bounce higher early next week.

The short and medium term trends are sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $59.25 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $63.81 (high of 27/05/09)

Support:    $58.93 (low of 19/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.67 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $57.80 (low of 12/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.66 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $59.76 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $64.68 (high of 28/05/09)

Support:    $58.83 (low of 21/05/09)                              Resistance: $63.13 (high of 08/07/09)

Support:    $58.41 (low of 26/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.17 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jul 10 2009, 11:43 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Jul 9 2009, 09:24 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's EIA report showing a much bigger than expected build in gasoline stocks was enough to tip crude oil prices ever further downwards as oil traders and investors come to realise that the recent commodity bull run is now rapidly running out of steam.   Whilst much of the recent rally in daily oil prices can be attributed to a combination of speculation and re-stocking (especially by China) the oil market is becoming increasingly aware that the short and medium term demand will not be as robust as had been once thought.  Indeed OPEC has suggested that the global demand for crude oil will now take at least five years to recover to pre financial crisis levels.  OPEC confirmed that the average consumption of its oil reached a peak of 31m barrels a day in 2008, before the crisis, but that it could be as late as 2013 before they see this level once again. Evidence that any recovery out of this current downturn may be premature can be found in the Baltic Dry Index which is, once again, flashing warning signals.

From a technical perspective yesterday saw daily oil prices touch an inter day low of $60.01 per barrel although a failure to breach this price point did see crude oil prices push back to $60.50 in later trading.  Overall daily oil prices lost a total of $1.68 or 3%, a level last seen on May 26th.  Technically yesterday's down candle was significant for one reason and one reason only, simply that the close of the day found some support at the intermediate level outlined in yesterday's market commentary and it will be interesting to see whether this platform is sufficient to provide a temporary, or indeed longer term, barrier to the current bearish move.  With the 40 day crossing both the 9 and 14 day moving averages the tone for oil prices is most certainly bearish.  However, we need to be cautious as after a such a steep and rapid fall it would come as no great surprise to see the oil bulls entering the market, particularly as we are at such a significant psychological price level, where automated buy orders may be triggered.  However, should this support region fail to hold we may well see a much deeper move back to re-test the consolidation region at the $50 to $52 per barrel level in the medium term.

The short and medium term trends are bearish while the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $60.01 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $64.89 (high of 07/07/09)

Support:    $59.52 (low of 26/05/09)                              Resistance: $63.81 (high of 27/05/09)

Support:    $58.93 (low of 19/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.67 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $60.30 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $64.89 (high of 07/07/09)

Support:    $59.85 (low of 25/05/09)                              Resistance: $64.68 (high of 28/05/09)

Support:    $58.83 (low of 21/05/09)                              Resistance: $63.13 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -2.9 (-1.9)      Distillates +3.7 (+1.7)    Gasoline +1.9 (+0.8)

Published on  Thu, Jul 9 2009, 09:24 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Jul 8 2009, 13:49 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's continuing fall in crude oil prices came as a result of a fresh sell off in equity markets as investors take a reality check following last week's truly awful employment data and oil traders will be watching today's EIA data to try and judge the extent (or otherwise) of any economic recovery.  Technically yesterday's candle ended the session on a wide spread down bar adding further to the bearish momentum which I outlined in yesterday's market commentary reinforcing the gapped down opening of Monday which was suggestive of a deeper move.  Indeed this deeper move translated into a 3% fall in daily oil prices which ended the day $2.05 down to settle at $62.22.  At one point the low of the day was $62.17.  The support level now approaching at $61 will now prove critical for an initial stabilization and subsequent rebound in crude oil prices, but should this fail to hold then the next area of support is deeper still at $58.75 on the daily chart.  With the 40 day now approaching both the 9 and 14 day moving averages, should these subsequently cross then the bearish momentum may be set to continue in the short term.

The short and medium term is bearish while the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $62.17 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $65.46 (high of 06/07/09)

Support:    $60.85 (low of 25/05/09)                              Resistance: $65.44 (high of 28/05/09)

Support:    $60.48 (low of 22/05/09)                              Resistance: $64.89 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $62.59 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $67.13 (high of 03/07/09)

Support:    $61.78 (low of 28/05/09)                              Resistance: $65.46 (high of 06/07/09)

Published on  Wed, Jul 8 2009, 13:49 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, Jul 7 2009, 10:37 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Not even renewed attacks on oil infrastructure in Nigeria where militants have damaged facilities owned by Chevron and in a separate incident seized a chemical tanker and six hostages have managed to halt the slide in crude oil prices.  Last week's spike high in daily oil prices caused by unauthorized trading at PVM merely reinforced the disconnect between oil prices and market fundamentals which has seen the price of oil double since mid February.   Indeed with equity markets losing momentum as risk aversion returns and a rebound in US Dollar strength are also significant factors in the bearish picture for oil prices (and commodities in general).   In yesterday's trading crude oil reached an inter day low of $63.39 per barrel, a price last seen on May 28th and oil prices eventually lost a total of $1.51 ending the day at $63.82 per barrel.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle was significant as the open of the oil trading session following the national holiday on Friday, was gapped down, suggesting that this move may be gaining some momentum, in particular as we are now well below all three moving averages.  With the 9 day and 14 day moving averages now pointing lower and the 40 day about to converge with these two, should a crossover occur then this will add to the general bearish tone.  A check on the weekly chart would also suggest a similar picture with last week's candle closing the session with a deep upper wick indicative of a weakening market.  Given the dramatic change on the oil chart no doubt oil traders will be watching this week's oil stats with keen interest along with the performance of the US Dollar.  All of this is, of course, against the backdrop of the G8 meeting in Italy which is starting on Wednesday.

The short and medium terms are bearish while the long term is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $63.39 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $67.15 (high of 03/07/09)

Support:    $62.77 (low of 28/05/09)                              Resistance: $66.43 (40 day moving average)

Support:    $62.20 (low of 27/05/09)                              Resistance: $65.46 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $63.26 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $67.13 (high of 03/07/09)

Support:    $61.78 (low of 28/05/09)                              Resistance: $65.75 (40 day moving average)

Support:    $60.99 (low of 27/05/09)                              Resistance: $65.46 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jul 7 2009, 10:37 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Jul 6 2009, 11:03 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Friday's candle on the daily oil chart was significant for one reason, and one reason only, in that the close of the day finished below the 40 day moving average suggesting that the oil bears are now firmly in control of the oil market and the rally of the last 2 months has now stalled completely.  Whilst the decline in daily oil prices may have been exacerbated by any pre holiday squaring even the weekly oil chart would suggest that we have reached an interim pause point in the rally of late with weekly candle closing with a deep upper shadow suggestive of a bearish tone.  However, it is important to note that Friday's close did find some support at the 9 week moving average which may prove significant in due course.  From a technical perspective Friday saw crude oil prices fall for a 4th straight day, dropping a further 54 cents to settle at $65.81 per barrel having seen an inter day low of $65.48, last seen on June 3rd.  With oil prices now having closed below the 40 day moving average and broken the $66.26 to $73.35 sideways consolidation of the past 4 weeks daily oil prices do indeed appear to be on a downward slide in the short term.

The short term bearish, medium term sideways and the long term bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $65.48 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $69.60 (high of 04/06/09)

Support:    $64.74 (low of 29/05/09)                              Resistance: $68.68 (high of 01/06/09)

Support:    $62.77 (low of 28/05/09)                              Resistance: $67.15 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $65.25 (Friday’s low)                                   Resistance: $68.65 (high of 03/06/09)

Support:    $64.91 (low of 03/06/09)                              Resistance: $68.03 (high of 01/06/09)

Support:    $63.96 (low of 29/05/09)                              Resistance: $67.13 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jul 6 2009, 11:03 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, Jul 3 2009, 09:19 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

This week's price action in daily oil prices has been distorted by "rogue trading" from one of the world's biggest oil brokers PVM here in London and goes some way to explain Tuesday's candle on the oil chart.  Briefly, during early trading in Asia at approximately 02.00 GMT an extremely and unusual trade was placed for 9000 lots (or even more) of Brent Crude which is equivalent to around 9m barrels of oil.  To put this into context the output of Saudi Arabia on a daily basis is around 11m to 12m barrels.  On the day this trade spooked the oil market for two reasons: firstly, the sheer volume at this time of night would normally suggest a geo political event of major importance triggering buying on this scale and once again to put this into context normal trading volumes would be around 500k barrels.  Secondly, the timing of this trade which again was unusual as trades of this size would normally not happen during this session.  As a result oil prices shot to $73 per barrel with the Brent Crude Prices pushing the WTI higher with many traders deeply puzzled and alarmed.  The "error" has been put down to a possible "fat finger trade" and the company has been unwinding its positions as a result with a potential loss of around $10m.  My own personal view is that at this time of night it could have been one of the office cleaners merely doing some light dusting to the keyboards (I joke - but you never know).  As I use volume in my own trading I was certainly confused myself as the volume spike on the day was enormous and at the time I wasn't sure whether it was a technical glitch or a true reflection of the trading volumes - now we know.  In the meantime yesterday's wide spread down bar reflected both the fall in equity markets following the worse than expected NFP data and probably not helped by the above unwinding of positions by PVM, closing $3.18 down on the day and touching an intra day low of $66.27 last seen on June 23rd.  From a technical perspective the wide spread down bar of yesterday found some support at the 40 day moving average which will now prove critical to prevent a deeper move in crude oil prices.   Today's price action is likely to be both muted and random given the thin volumes (unless PVM decide to sell a few more million barrels!!) owing to the 4th of July celebrations in the US.  Have a great weekend and a Happy 4th of July.

The short term trend is sideways the medium term trend is bullish while the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $66.27 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.92 (high of 25/06/09)

Support:    $65.98 (40 day moving average)               Resistance: $70.21 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:    $64.96 (low of 03/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.70 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $66.21 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.51 (high of 25/06/09)

Support:    $65.90 (low of 23/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.62 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:    $65.41 (40 day moving average)                        Resistance: $69.19 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jul 3 2009, 09:19 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Jul 2 2009, 10:28 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's sell off in crude oil prices was somewhat surprising given a renewed weakening of the US Dollar (correlations can and do move in and out of sync) but could merely be reflecting the weak demand seen in the US as evidenced in the weekly EIA stats which showed gasoline stock rising by 2.3m barrels in the week ended 26th June.  In addition whilst the first half of 2009 has seen impressive stock market gains there is a growing fear that these gains will not be sustained going forward and will either stall or, worse still, reverse.  The ADP figures also released yesterday showed a much bigger than expected increase in unemployment in the private sector which can only add a degree of nervousness to the market ahead of the more significant Non Farm Payroll data later today.  Having initially moved higher in early trading crude oil prices encountered some resistance after touching the intra day high of $71.84 and overall daily oil prices ended the day sharply lower, losing $1.46 to settle at $69.14 per barrel.  Technically the oil chart continues to consolidate in the current $70 per barrel price region and yesterday's close finished below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  The daily oil chart has a mildly bearish tone at present but with plenty of clear water to the 40 day moving average there is scope for a move lower in the short term before reversing higher once again, and the key for today, and tomorrow, whether crude oil prices can find some support at the $68 per barrel price point.  The outcome for crude oil prices in the next few days will be dictated by the battle between the ECB and the FED with the Chinese adding their own pertinent comments.

The short and medium term trend is while the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $68.51 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.78 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $68.07 (low of 24/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.15 (high of 15/06/09)

Support:    $66.67 (low of 22/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.84 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $68.08 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.40 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $67.58 (low of 24/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.96 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $66.12 (low of 22/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.32 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -3.7 (-1.5)      Distillates +2.8 (+1.6)    Gasoline +2.3 (+2.0)

Published on  Thu, Jul 2 2009, 10:28 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Jul 1 2009, 10:52 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's dramatic trading in the oil market saw the price of crude oil achieve a fresh high for 2009 when daily oil prices achieved $73.35 per barrel.  However, on touching this price point oil prices promptly reversed on a bout of violent profit taking which at one point saw the price of a barrel of oil fall back below $70 per barrel, and at one stage even reached an intra day low of $68.91.  In addition, month and quarter end liquidations and position squaring all contributed to this price volatility which even the Nigerian supply issues could not counterbalance.   Overall crude prices settled $1.45 lower at $70.30.   With the start of the new month and quarter the oil market is now focused on today's EIA stats as well as tomorrow's US Employment Data which may give oil traders a clue for the next direction in the price of crude.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle reflected the torrid trading session closing the day with a small body and deep shadows to both top and bottom.  The key technical points to note from yesterday's oil trading are as follows - firstly that the close of the day found support at the 14 day moving average which is an encouraging sign for the bulls, and secondly the high of the day failed, once again, to hold beyond the $73 per barrel price point, the fourth failure at this level during June, which is a worrying sign. All in all a conflicting picture which will almost certainly be resolved over the coming oil trading sessions.  For any move higher we need to see a hold above $73.50 on the daily oil chart but should we see a break back below the strong support now in place in the $69 per barrel region and below then we could see a temporary and even deeper move in the short term.

The short term trend is sideways the medium term trend is bullish while the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $68.91 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $73.23 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $68.07 (low of 24/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.78 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $66.67 (low of 22/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.15 (high of 15/06/09)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $68.40 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.40 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $68.05 (low of 25/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.96 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $67.58 (low of 24/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.42 (high of 29/06/09)

Published on  Wed, Jul 1 2009, 10:52 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, Jun 30 2009, 10:12 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's sharp rally in crude oil prices has been attributed to a variety of factors not least of which was a further bout of Dollar weakness which is expected to continue throughout this shortened trading week.  Other reasons cited include China's decision to add to its strategic reserve over the next 5 years as well as the ongoing problems in Nigeria.  I was asked recently why daily oil prices can be sensitive to problems in Nigeria and one reason is the quality of oil and the ease with which it can be converted to gasoline.  From a technical perspective the issue now is whether by breaking back above the $70.00 mark and finishing $2.75 higher to close at $71.67 was enough of a move to propel crude oil prices towards our interim target of $75 per barrel and yesterday's "outside day" candle may well have provided the necessary momentum required.  The key to any move higher will now be a break and hold above the $72.50 price point which will then confirm that oil prices have indeed broken out of the June consolidation at this price level.  If this is coupled with a re-crossing of the 9 and 14 day moving averages then this should provide the correct mix of technical elements to achieve the target outlined above.

The short, medium and long term trends are bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $68.35 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.78 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $68.07 (low of 24/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.30 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $66.67 (low of 22/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.91 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $68.10 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.40 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $68.05 (low of 25/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.96 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $67.58 (low of 24/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.42 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 30 2009, 10:12 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Jun 29 2009, 10:47 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Whilst a weaker US Dollar may have played a part in any rise in the price of crude during Friday oil trading session, the complex appears to be tracking equity markets which suffered a bout of profit taking both ahead of the weekend and anticipation of this week's Fourth of July Holiday.  To this mix must now be added the Nigerian supply problems (although this could be offset by additional OPEC production), the problems which have erupted in Central America where Venezuela's Hugo Chavez is threatening to intervene in Honduras to reinstate his ally, Manuel Zelaya, and let us not forget North Korea's threat to fire a missile at Hawaii on the 4th July.   In addition this morning has seen the EIA sharply cut its demand figures for oil in the medium term.

During Friday's crude oil trading session the complex appeared to be toying once again with both the 9 and 14 day moving averages and in the process reached an inter day high of $71.31.  However, the rally proved short lived as profit taking kicked in thereby pushing daily oil prices back into negative territory.  From a technical perspective the only tentative conclusions we can draw from Friday's trading are firstly that the low of the day was supported by the 9 day moving average while the open of the day found a degree of resistance at the 14 day moving average, so a somewhat mixed picture.   With the 14 day moving average having crossed the 9 day, the sideways consolidation maintains a bearish flavour, geo political factors notwithstanding, and for any decisive move higher we need to see a break and hold above the $71 per barrel level followed by a breakout of the $73 per barrel.  To the downside the issue remains the amount of clear water below the current price level to the 40 day moving average which does present opportunities for a deeper retracement in due course, and the price support now in place at $67.50 will prove pivotal to such a move.

The short term trend is sideways the medium term trend is bullish while the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $68.80 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $72.15 (high of 15/06/09)

Support:    $68.34 (low of 25/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.74 (high of 17/06/09)

Support:    $66.67 (low of 22/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.31 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $68.50 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $71.96 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $68.05 (low of 25/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.12 (high of 17/06/09)

Support:    $67.58 (low of 24/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.81 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jun 29 2009, 10:47 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, Jun 26 2009, 10:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The strong rebound in crude oil prices yesterday has been attributed to a variety of reasons, the main being problems in Nigeria where militant attacks on pipelines has led to the loss of 33k barrels of crude oil per day and the Italian Oil Company Eni to invoke "force majeur".   In addition the attacks have also closed down 2 refineries thereby giving some support to daily oil prices which ended the day $1.88 higher to settle at $70.36.  From a technical perspective the key to the medium term for crude oil prices will be the strong resistance now in place at the $72.20 price point where we have seen 5 failed attempts to clear this region in June already.  Indeed daily oil prices reached a yearly high on 11th June when they touched $73.23.  Yesterday's candle provided a degree of momentum in closing in on these targets once again with the close of the day finishing above both the 9 and 14 day moving averages, and indeed this momentum has rolled through into this morning early oil trading session.  In order to achieve our medium term target of $75 per barrel we will need to see a break and hold above the price points outlined above coupled with the 9 day crossing back above the 14 day moving average and with strong support from both these averages on an inter day basis.  Should these factors combine then technically there is no reason to suppose the bullish trend be reinstated in the short to medium term following the extended sideways consolidation of June.

The short term trend is sideways, the medium term trend is bullish while the long term trend is b

WTI:

Support:    $68.34 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.15 (high of 15/06/09)

Support:    $66.67 (low of 22/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.74 (high of 17/06/09)

Support:    $66.26 (low of 23/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.92 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $68.05 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $71.96 (high of 19/06/09)

Support:    $67.58 (low of 24/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.12 (high of 17/06/09)

Support:    $66.12 (low of 22/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.51 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 26 2009, 10:21 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Jun 25 2009, 09:48 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Despite a larger than expected draw in crude oil inventories crude oil prices took their cue from the bearish gasoline figures which showed the stockpile increasing by almost double to that forecast.  Such a signal can only indicate a more realistic view of any economic recovery and with equity markets also declining and some strength returning to the US Dollar it was a surprise that daily oil prices actually managed to achieve an inter day high of $69.90 per barrel.   The effect of the much vaunted FOMC statement did not have the predicted effect other than to deliver a measure of Dollar strength late in the trading session and which saw crude oil prices fall back and end the session 28 cents lower closing at $68.37 a barrel.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle provided a mildly bearish signal with the candle closing with a relatively deep upper wick, and the high of the day failing to penetrate the 9 day moving average which provided some stiff resistance.  When coupled with the crossing of the 9 and 14 day moving averages this would suggest that at best we will see some further sideways consolidation during the next few days and, at worst, a minor pull back in daily oil prices.  The key to whether this turns into a deeper move will be the behaviour of oil prices as they approach the support level at $67.50 per barrel and should this region provide a degree of support then we may well see the bullish tone reinstated once again.

The short, medium and long term is sideways.

WTI:

Support:    $68.07 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.69 (high of 09/06/09)

Support:    $66.67 (low of 22/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.21 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:    $66.26 (low of 23/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.90 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $67.58 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.06 (high of 09/06/09)

Support:    $66.12 (low of 22/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.62 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:    $65.90 (low of 23/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.31 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Published on  Thu, Jun 25 2009, 09:48 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Jun 24 2009, 09:42 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following the recent downward jolt to crude oil prices today's EIA stats and FOMC interest rate decision and accompanying statement will be heavily scrutinized in an effort to gauge the short term direction for crude oil prices.  However, it will be a particularly tough call given that the EIA stats are expected to show yet another increase in gasoline stocks, thereby casting doubt on a quick recovery in economic activity, whilst the FOMC statement is widely expected to be heavily Dollar negative and therefore supportive of higher daily oil prices - a true paradox.  From a technical perspective during yesterday's oil trading session crude oil prices touched an inter day low of $66.26 before recovering to gain a total of $1.25 on the day and settle at $68.65, and ending the day with an up candle with wicks to both top and bottom.  However, yesterday's upwards move was far from convincing and failed to prevent the crossing of the 9 and 14 day moving averages which presents a bearish signal to the market.   However, the broader fundamental news is likely to overshadow any technical analysis for crude oil prices as the two statements outlined above are both powerful drivers for future oil prices, and should the FOMC statement be substantially Dollar negative then this may well overrule any bearish EIA oil data.

The short term trend is sideways the medium term trend is bullish while the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $66.26 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.69 (high of 09/06/09)

Support:    $65.92 (low of 04/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.21 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:    $64.96 (low of 03/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.68 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $65.90 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.06 (high of 09/06/09)

Support:    $65.49 (low of 01/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.62 (high of 22/06/09)

Support:    $64.91 (low of 03/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.25 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -1.4      Distillates +0.8    Gasoline +1.6

Published on  Wed, Jun 24 2009, 09:42 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, Jun 23 2009, 10:14 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices tumbled yesterday, along with many other commodities and markets, as a profit taking domino effect took hold and daily oil prices lost almost $3, or 4%, to finish at $67.25 per barrel, a price last seen on June 8th.  Fundamentalists have cited some bearish Chinese statistics which appear to show an increase to their stockpile rather than an improvement in demand and the World Bank cutting back its forecast for 2009 as reasons for this fall in the price of crude.  However, it is a very selective view of the fundamental picture given the problems in Iran, oil disruption in Nigeria as well as the possibility of a new gas conflict between the Ukraine and Russia!  From a technical perspective (and apologies for the candle not showing correctly on the above chart) yesterday's wide spread down bar injected a degree of momentum into the oil market following last week's sideways consolidation closing the day firmly below both the 9 and 14 day moving averages but well above the 40 day moving average.   The extent to which daily oil prices are now likely to fall will depend on a number of factors: first how long the effect of Friday's volume spike will be maintained, second the strength or otherwise of the US dollar whose fate is now tied to the outcome of the FOMC meeting and finally the degree of risk aversion that this will trigger as a result and its impact on the equity markets.  The key levels for support to any deeper move in crude oil prices are seen at $65 per barrel and $62.50 and should any move be accompanied by a break below the 40 day moving average then we may even see a retracement back to the latter.  This, however, is unlikely to change the longer term picture which, I believe, still remains bullish despite the short term bearish tone.

The short term trend is bearish, the medium term trend is sideways while the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $66.67 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $71.28 (high of 17/06/09)

Support:    $65.92 (low of 04/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.69 (high of 09/06/09)

Support:    $64.96 (low of 03/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.21 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $66.12 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.93 (high of 15/06/09)

Support:    $65.49 (low of 01/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.06 (high of 09/06/09)

Support:    $64.91 (low of 03/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.62 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 23 2009, 10:14 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Jun 22 2009, 10:04 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Even Friday's spike higher in the Eurodollar (which was more of an exercise in stop hunting by the market makers), could not prevent daily oil prices falling and which may have been prompted by oil traders taking profits ahead of the weekend, as investors appear to have developed a severe case of the jitters as markets are, once again, looking somewhat fragile.    The oil market, in tandem with other markets, has been studiously ignoring the fundamental news picture for some time, preferring optimism and sentiment over hard economic numbers .  However, this week may see a strong dose of realism re-enter the markets as the FMOC statement, US GDP numbers and the Treasury Auction will confirm the viability of current market moves and the future direction of the US Dollar, which is the key for crude oil prices.  From a technical perspective Friday's candle provided several interesting points to consider, ahead of what could prove to be a pivotal and dramatic week for daily oil prices, ( as for many other markets).  The candle closed the session as a wide spread down bar, and engulfing Thursday's doji candle, suggesting a bearish tone, possibly reinforced by the fact that the high of day failed to clear the strong resistance at $73.23 now in place.  This bearish view, however, needs to be counterbalanced by the fact that the low of the day was fully supported by the 14 day moving average, so a slightly contradictory picture appears to be emerging.

The bearish picture has however gained momentum this morning, with some significant falls in early trading with crude oil prices currently trading down $2.63 at $68.63 and well below the 14 day moving average.  What is also particularly interesting, and something which so far I have not included in my daily oil commentaries, are the trading volumes, which on Friday were very high, and when viewed against those of earlier in the week, would suggest that Friday was a day of extremes, which may well indicate a significant turning point in both sentiment and the market.  For those of you familiar with volume spread analysis (VSA),  then a wide spread down bar, coupled with high volume, may well suggest that the market has turned and we could see a much deeper move as a result.  This view is reinforced when considered against the volume and price action of earlier in the week. With a consolidating move on low volume, combined with a market showing little interest in rising, this could be a very important signal and a sign that something dramatic is about to happen to crude oil prices, and the broader markets in general.

The short term is bearish, the medium term is sideways and the long term is bullish

WTI:

Support:    $68.88 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $73.23 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $68.44 (low of 09/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.78 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $67.50 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.30 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $68.63 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $72.40 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $68.24 (low of 09/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.27 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $67.35 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.96 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jun 22 2009, 10:04 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, Jun 19 2009, 10:09 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday was a quiet day for oil traders, as crude oil prices were contained within a very narrow range with the opening price and the closing price almost identical as oil prices ended the day 20 cents down to finish at $71.82 per barrel.  Technically the price of oil once again found support on the 9 day moving average with the 14 day supporting the low of the session, all of which suggestive once again that the rally for oil has further to go, and indeed this has been confirmed in trading so far today with a gapped up open indicating further momentum.  The key for today will be whether oil prices can breach the $72.60 per barrel price point which is now being approached as we have minor resistance at this level, and should the session finish above this level today then we could be well on target to achieve $75 per barrel in the next few days with full support from the 9 and 14 day moving averages.  A caveat to this is that today is "triple witching" with options in all markets due to expire and with many traders squaring positions ahead of the weekend trading may be subdued.

The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $70.82 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $73.42 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $69.71 (low of 17/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.97 (high of 15/06/09)

Support:    $68.40 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.31 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $69.80 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.40 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $69.02 (low of 17/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.64 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $68.56 (low of 15/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.49 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 19 2009, 10:09 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Jun 18 2009, 10:05 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The oil market took some time to respond to yesterday's EIA stats which could, at best, be described as a mixed bag with a larger than expected draw in crude inventories signalling rising demand but with a much larger than expected build in gasoline stocks.   The effect on the price of crude was to lift oil prices which in early trading had dropped below the significant $70 per barrel price point to an intra day low of $69.71 but prices recovered, assisted by a weaker dollar, to settle eventually at $70.55.   From a technical perspective yesterday's candle reinforced our view once again that the 9 and 14 day moving averages will set the tone for oil prices in the near term, as it is evident from the last few days that these are providing a consistent barrier to any reversal lower in daily oil prices, and we saw this once again in yesterday's price action.  This view has been reinforced in early trading this morning with a gapped up open and the low of the session currently finding support at the 9 day moving average.   Provided we see a break and hold above the $73 per barrel price then we should still be on track to achieve our initial target of $75 per barrel, with the proviso that the three moving averages continue to offer this level of support.

The short, medium and long term are bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $69.71 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $73.42 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $69.37 (low of 09/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.97 (high of 15/06/09)

Support:    $68.40 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.00 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $69.02 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.40 (high of 16/06/09)

Support:    $68.56 (low of 15/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.64 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $67.35 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.12 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -3.4 (-1.7)      Distillates +0.3 (+0.8)    Gasoline +3.3 (+0.3)

Published on  Thu, Jun 18 2009, 10:05 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Jun 17 2009, 09:51 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Not only are today's EIA oil stats expected to show a further decline in crude oil inventories they may also provide the oil market with some direction for crude oil prices in the short to medium term given yesterday's unusual price action on the oil chart.   The early trading session saw a strong rebound in crude oil prices reversing the steep decline of Monday which initially pushed the price of oil back above the 9 day moving average and reaching an intra day high of $73.42 per barrel.  However, a failure to re-test the recent high of $73.91 of June 11th translated into a sharp retracement, and as a result crude oil finished the oil trading session a mere 3 cents higher at $70.85 in a consolidating move that looks set to continue for the short term as the market takes a breather.

Technically yesterday's candle finished as a "shooting star" pattern suggesting that the oil market is weakening slightly in the face of selling pressure possibly on the back of a resurgence in the US Dollar as evidenced on the Dollar Index, and should this effect be pronounced then we may see a significant reversal in oil prices in the next few days.  Any break and hold below the 14 day average could prove significant particularly if it is coupled with a penetration of the support immediately below at the $68 price point, and today's oil inventory numbers in conjunction with equity market performance and the US Dollar could prove pivotal in the short term.   Our medium term price target still remains $75 per barrel.

The short term sideways, medium and long term bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $70.51 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $74.54 (high of 17/10/08)

Support:    $69.37 (low of 09/06/09)                              Resistance: $73.91 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $68.40 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $73.42 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $69.55 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $73.61 (high of 20/10/08)

Support:    $68.56 (low of 15/06/09)                              Resistance: $73.29 (high of 21/10/08)

Support:    $67.35 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.40 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -1.7      Distillates +0.8    Gasoline +0.3

Published on  Wed, Jun 17 2009, 09:51 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, Jun 16 2009, 12:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's rebound in the US dollar following supportive statements from both Japan and Russia gave us the first significant pullback in crude oil prices which saw the price of oil end the day with a $1.85 loss, ending the day at $70.30.  However, oil traders and investors should not feel unduly worried given the current geopolitical tensions in both Iran and Nigeria which should they continue should help to maintain daily oil prices.   As I mentioned in yesterday's commentary financial markets should not under-estimate the strength and influence of the BRIC economies which are not suffering as much as those of the West and who have already agreed a number of bi-lateral agreements for payment of various commodities, including oil.  Whether this will ever translate into an alternative for the US dollar remains to be seen although the Russians have already highlighted the possibility of a "supranational" currency.   From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread down bar found good support from the 9 day moving average which once again suggests that this reversal in oil prices may only be a temporary one, and indeed in this morning's early trading we have seen yesterday's loss promptly reversed and oil prices once again surging higher.  Indeed as we can see from the daily oil price chart the current bullish trend remains firmly intact as we now target the $75 per barrel price point outlined last week.

The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $69.49 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $73.23 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $68.44 (low of 09/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.60 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $67.50 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.15 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $68.56 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $72.27 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $68.24 (low of 09/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.64 (high of 12/06/09)

Support:    $67.35 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.93 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 16 2009, 12:56 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Jun 15 2009, 09:54 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Friday's retracement in crude oil prices did not come as a great surprise given the extent of the recent rally in the price of oil which has seen daily oil prices rise by 120% since mid February,  and even an intra day dip to $70.82 was taken as an opportunity to buy back into the oil market, merely confirming that the oil futures curve is, once again, pointing decisively higher.  Whilst this push higher in daily oil prices appears totally at odds with oil market fundamentals, which tend to focus on the problems of the Western economies, they do not take into account the relative strength of the BRIC economies which is where the demand for oil is likely to come.   From a technical perspective Friday's candle provided a temporary pause point in the headlong rush higher, ending the day 31 cents higher to close at $72.20 per barrel and, even the low of the day on the lower wick failed to come close to a bounce off the 9 day moving average suggesting that we have plenty of clear water for any short term reversal triggered by profit taking or a strengthening US dollar.  With all three moving averages pointing firmly higher and with no signals on the oil chart that this rally in daily prices is likely to end soon, we must therefore assume that the bullish trend remains firmly in place and continue to look for trend trading opportunities on any downward dip.  My short term target remains at $75 per barrel as outlined at the recent OPEC meeting.

The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is sideways.

WTI:

Support:    $70.82 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $74.28 (high of 17/10/08)

Support:    $70.51 (low of 10/06/09)                              Resistance: $73.23 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $70.00 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $72.60 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $69.99 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $73.29 (high of 21/10/08)

Support:    $69.16 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $72.27 (high of 11/06/09)

Support:    $68.24 (low of 09/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.64 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jun 15 2009, 09:54 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, Jun 12 2009, 09:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices just keep marching on supported both from strengthening equity markets and a further weakening of the US dollar, particularly against the Euro.   The oil market is used to anti Dollar rhetoric from the likes of Iran, Russia and Venezuela but when it comes from Fed Member Lockhart who yesterday stated ""USD role as reserve currency may decline; not made up mind yet to increase Treasury purchases" there really is no hope.  Meanwhile the IEA monthly report showed an upward revision to its 2009 global oil demand figures thereby hinting that crude oil prices are likely to be boosted given this shift in the fundamentals.    It will be interesting to see how OPEC producers respond to the increase in daily oil prices and whether the agreed production cuts will in fact hold.    From a technical perspective yesterday's oil chart saw crude oil prices climb even higher and at one point achieve an inter day high of $73.23 per barrel.  Despite a small hiccup in the rally the price of oil finished 92 cents higher to settle at $72.47.   The oil chart is now pointing to the $74.28 minor resistance level, last seen on 17th October 2008 and with the oil market in buoyant mood and moving further away from all three moving averages we should not be surprised to see a retracement at some point in the near future.

The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $71.32 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $75.85 (high of 21/10/08)

Support:    $70.51 (low of 10/06/09)                              Resistance: $74.28 (high of 17/10/08)

Support:    $68.44 (low of 09/06/09)                              Resistance: $73.23 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $70.63 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $75.04 (high of 15/10/08)

Support:    $69.92 (low of 10/06/09)                             Resistance: $73.29 (high of 21/10/08)

Support:    $68.24 (low of 09/06/09)                              Resistance: $72.27 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 12 2009, 09:56 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Jun 11 2009, 10:35 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

"We create our own reality" are words attributed to one of George W Bush's aides, but which could equally apply to the oil market, where crude oil prices continue to surge higher managing to absorb both a rebound in the US dollar and some weakening in equity markets.  All this comes against a backdrop of high inventories and falling year on year demand.   In addition yesterday's EIA oil stats revealed a much larger than expected draw in crude stocks, thereby adding considerable weight to a market looking to justify the move higher in daily oil prices.   Indeed yesterday's rally in crude oil prices took the oil price to fresh highs, last seen in October 2008, and  ending the day with a 90 cents gain at $71.50.   From a technical perspective yesterday's candle ended the session as an up bar closing well above all three moving averages, and it is testimony to the strength of the current rally that oil prices could retrace by as much as 5 dollars per barrel, back to the 9 day moving average, while still maintaining their bullish momentum.  My short term target for the current move in crude oil still remains at $75 per barrel highlighted at last month's OPEC meeting, a view supported by price of Nymex crude oil futures which rose above $72 per barrel for the first time since October 2008.

The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $70.51 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $75.85 (high of 21/10/08)

Support:    $68.44 (low of 09/06/09)                              Resistance: $74.28 (high of 17/10/08)

Support:    $67.50 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.78 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $69.92 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $73.29 (high of 21/10/08)

Support:    $68.24 (low of 09/06/09)                             Resistance: $71.90 (high of 17/10/08)

Support:    $67.35 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.20 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -4.4 (-0.4)      Distillates -0.3 (+1.2)    Gasoline -1.5 (+1.3)

Published on  Thu, Jun 11 2009, 10:35 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Jun 10 2009, 08:40 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

The rally in crude oil prices returned yesterday with daily oil prices emphatically pushing through the $70 per barrel price point, as dollar weakness re-emerged, in particular against the Euro where the breaching of the $1.40 level provided an impetus to oil market bulls.  As today's EIA data is not expected to provide any dramatic shift in the overall fundamentals, today's oil prices will tend to be dictated more by technical issues and speculative trading, rather than any key fundamentals.  From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread up bar pushed oil prices well clear of the recent sideways consolidation, and at one point reached yet another fresh high for 2009 at $70.69 per barrel, clearing the $70 per barrel price outlined in yesterday's market commentary.  Overall daily oil prices gained $1.66 to settle at $70.50.  The move higher was fully supported by all three moving averages and it is particularly interesting to note that the 9 day moving average is providing strong support in any short term reversal during the trading day, suggesting that this move has some way to run, and my next target for the price of oil in the medium term, is the $75 per barrel price level outlined at the recent OPEC meeting.

The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is sideways.

WTI:

Support:    $68.44 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $71.75 (high of 04/11/08)

Support:    $67.50 (low of 05/06/09)                              Resistance: $71.20 (high of 22/10/08)

Support:    $66.79 (low of 08/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.69 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $68.24 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $71.90 (high of 17/10/08)

Support:    $67.35 (low of 05/06/09)                             Resistance: $70.15 (high of 16/10/08)

Support:    $66.88 (low of 08/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.06 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -0.4      Distillates +1.2    Gasoline +1.3

Published on  Wed, Jun 10 2009, 08:40 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, Jun 9 2009, 08:52 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices remain well supported, despite US dollar strength especially against the Euro in the light of the downgrade to Ireland's credit rating to double AA, with a negative outlook, from double AA plus.  This is the second cut in three months and comes amid worries over the cost of bailing out the Irish banking sector.  The day's sharp falls in equity markets also failed to dent daily oil prices which now appear to be driven in part by a bullish oil chart and an improving economic outlook as oil traders look to the future and lock in profits. In addition this Thursday's monthly EIA report is expected to show that the long string of downward demand for oil could now be coming to an end, and tomorrow's weekly figures may show a similar tendency.

From a technical perspective crude oil moved lower in early trading touching an intraday low of $66.79 and looked poised for a further sell off.   However, the 9 day moving average provided a good support level once again (a common feature of this current up trend) and a failure to cross below this indicator fuelled additional buying, pushing the price of crude higher to close at $68.74 giving a 69 cents gain for the day. All we are waiting for now is a break and hold above the $70 per barrel price point, and if this occurs today, we should see the rally continue in the medium term, with the $75 per barrel price level firmly in our sights, and with the current consolidation area providing solid support to the move up.

The short term and medium term are bullish, the longer term outlook is sideways.

WTI:

Support:    $66.79 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.40 (high of 05/06/09)

Support:    $66.40 (low of 01/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.60 (high of 04/06/09)

Support:    $65.92 (low of 04/06/09)                              Resistance: $68.95 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $66.88 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.15 (high of 16/10/08)

Support:    $65.49 (low of 01/06/09)                             Resistance: $69.91 (high of 05/06/09)

Support:    $64.91 (low of 03/06/09)                              Resistance: $68.79 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 9 2009, 08:52 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Jun 8 2009, 10:26 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Despite daily oil prices spiking to yet fresh highs and at one point touching the $70 per barrel price point, crude oil ended slightly lower on Friday primarily as a result of the surprising NFP data which came in below market expectation and provided a significant dollar bounce.   Whilst 345,000 may be the slowest rate of job loss the unemployment rate is at 9.4%, one of the highest since records began and only marginally better than the 10.8% posted in November 1982.   Nevertheless investors chose to view these numbers as evidence that the worst of this current downturn may now be over leaving crude oil prices in the unique position of being able to benefit in almost all market conditions.

From a technical perspective once the price of crude had spiked through the $70 per barrel level (another record for 2009) the rally was not sustained with many oil traders banking profits ahead of the weekend and daily oil prices finished the day 46 cents lower to close at $68.39 per barrel, closing the session with a long legged doji. As always, this type of candle indicates indecision in the market and a possible turning point, and therefore we should not be surprised to see a possible fall in oil prices in the short term, and in will be interesting to see whether the 9 and 14 day moving averages provide support as has happened at other points in the move - if so then we can assume that the bullish sentiment remains intact, but should these fail to hold, then we may see a pullback to retest the $62- 65.00 per barrel in due course.

The short and medium term trends are sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $67.50 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $71.20 (high of 22/10/08)

Support:    $66.40 (low of 01/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.53 (high of 30/10/08)

Support:    $65.92 (low of 04/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.40 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $67.35 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $71.90 (high of 17/10/08)

Support:    $65.49 (low of 01/06/09)                             Resistance: $70.15 (high of 16/10/08)

Support:    $64.91 (low of 03/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.91 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jun 8 2009, 10:26 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, Jun 5 2009, 08:27 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices charged towards the $70 per barrel price point on Thursday, recouping the previous oil trading session's losses and leading a rally in many other commodities such as spot gold and silver.  A major factor supporting such a strong price move in daily oil prices was an upbeat forecast from Goldman Sachs who have reviewed their price target for crude oil from $65 to $85 per barrel by the end of the year.  This is, of course, the same Goldman Sachs who as recently as 28th April stated that it expected crude oil prices to drop to $45 a barrel owing to the extent of oil in storage.   The disconnect between the price of oil and oil market fundamentals continues and evidenced by US consumption alone which dropped 900,000 barrel a day last week, confirming that US demand is at a 10 year low and hardly suggestive of an economy that is cultivating the green shoots of recovery.  Nevertheless Nymex WTI rose to $69 a barrel before settling at $68.81 and ICE July Brent added $2.83 to close at $68.71 a barrel.   The major issue for daily oil prices today will be the non farm payroll numbers and their effect on the somewhat beleaguered US dollar.

From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread up candle, added momentum to the move, with the low of the day once again bouncing off the 9 day moving average, as for Wednesday, which is always a strong signal that the trend has support, and therefore likely to continue for some time to come. This phenomenon is often seen in strongly trending moves ( both up and down) and is a great signal to look for, as the support provided by the 9 or 14 day moving average, provides a clear indication that any temporary reversal is just that , temporary, and the the original trend will continue in due course. In other words it is simply the market taking a breather before continuing in the original direction once again, and indeed this is clearly demonstrated several times on the daily oil chart in the current trend of the last few weeks from the breakout at the end of May. With yesterday's strong move upwards we know have both the $70 and $75 per barrel price points clearly in our sights!

The short term and medium term are bullish, the long term is sideways.

WTI:

Support:    $65.92 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $71.20 (high of 22/10/08)

Support:    $64.96 (low of 03/06/09)                              Resistance: $70.53 (high of 30/10/08)

Support:    $64.74 (low of 29/05/09)                              Resistance: $69.60 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $65.84 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $71.90 (high of 17/10/08)

Support:    $64.91 (low of 03/06/09)                             Resistance: $70.15 (high of 16/10/08)

Support:    $63.96 (low of 29/05/09)                              Resistance: $69.50 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Jun 5 2009, 08:27 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Jun 4 2009, 09:22 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Whilst the early falls in crude oil prices were undoubtedly triggered by a strong rebound in the US dollar, thereby confirming the strong link between the energy complex and the currency markets, the decline in daily oil prices in the latter part of the oil trading session was accelerated by a combination of the EIA figures, which showed a surprise build of 2.9mb in stocks against market expectations of a slight draw, and a weakening in the equity markets.  Indeed financial experts are beginning to question the sustainability of the recent  market rally with many expecting the current downturn to continue unabated.  Interestingly, this week has also seen His Highness Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed al-Nahyan calling the top of the market by selling all 1.3bn of his Barclays shares, a decision which followed the Qatar Investment Authority, which trimmed its stake from 6.4pc to 5.8pc in April. Moving forward it is the currency markets which will continue to be the main drivers for crude oil prices.

From a technical perspective daily oil prices experienced a further failure at the $69 per barrel, eventually losing $2.22 (3%) to close the day at $65.92. The move was significant but somewhat expected given that markets do undergo occasional consolidation in reaction to the type of strong rallies that crude has experienced lately. Nevertheless the 9 day moving average proved to be a good support level and it remains to be seen if the fall is set to continue, or after a much needed breather crude is now ready to aim higher. Technically the upwards trend remains intact, and with a deep wick to the bottom of the candle, coupled with the bounce from the 9 day moving average, this candle suggests that this is only a temporary pullback, and not a longer term reversal to the trend. Technically this is a different picture for that of both gold and silver, where the daily candle has provided a bearish engulfing signal, but again in both cases ( as with the oil chart), the 9 day moving average has provided solid support to the low of the day, suggesting that this reversal is only temporary, and that the bullish trend in oil prices should be re-established in due course.

The short term trend is sideways, and the medium and long term trends are bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $64.96 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.53 (high of 30/10/08)

Support:    $64.74 (low of 29/05/09)                              Resistance: $69.21 (high of 29/10/08)

Support:    $62.77 (low of 28/05/09)                              Resistance: $68.96 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $64.91 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.15 (high of 16/10/08)

Support:    $63.96 (low of 29/05/09)                             Resistance: $68.87 (high of 22/10/08)

Support:    $61.78 (low of 28/05/09)                              Resistance: $68.65 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Crude +2.9 (-1.6)      Distillates +1.7 (+1.2)    Gasoline -0.2 (+0.1)

Published on  Thu, Jun 4 2009, 09:22 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, Jun 3 2009, 10:18 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Following the recent rally in crude oil prices, it is becoming increasingly evident that the whole energy complex is once again perceived as an ‘asset class’, a view increasingly reinforced with interest rates now virtually at zero, and likely to remain there for some time to come. Whilst a steady tone in the equity markets remains supportive, the main drivers pushing daily oil prices higher are the fast declining US dollar (even comments by Treasury Secretary Geithner could not stop it) combined with several technical factors, so today’s EIA stats are expected to offer little in the way of an insight into assessing the future direction for oil prices in the short term, no matter what the data may say later this afternoon.

From a technical perspective yesterday's candle ended the day as a spinning top doji, suggesting some indecision in the market, as prices take a breather following the steep price rise of the last three days, closing the day at $68.20 with a narrow spread bar and 35 cents higher on the day overall. Despite all three moving averages pointing higher it will be no great surprise to see a period of sideways consolidation over the next few days, before we see the bullish tone continue in due course, as we push toward our initial target of $70 per barrel, and a hold above this price level could then open the way for a sustained move towards the $75  per barrel outlined at the recent OPEC meeting

The short term trend is sideways, the medium and long term are bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $67.51 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.53 (high of 30/10/08)

Support:    $66.40 (low of 01/06/09)                              Resistance: $69.21 (high of 29/10/08)

Support:    $64.74 (low of 29/05/09)                              Resistance: $69.04 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $67.05 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.15 (high of 16/10/08)

Support:    $65.49 (low of 01/06/09)                             Resistance: $68.87 (high of 22/10/08)

Support:    $63.96 (low of 29/05/09)                              Resistance: $68.55 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -1.6      Distillates +1.2    Gasoline -0.1

Published on  Wed, Jun 3 2009, 10:18 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, Jun 2 2009, 09:44 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

With markets seeming to feel that the global economy is in the midst of experiencing a V shaped recovery as evidenced by yet further triple digit gains in the Dow Jones the oil market too is benefiting from this optimism and inflows which resulted in the price of crude oil rising for a fifth day in a row, setting a fresh high for the year at $68.68 (last seen on 5th November 2008).  Whether the rally of recent days is sustainable is debatable given the excess inventories and weak demand but as crude oil prices continues to correlate negatively with a weakening US dollar analysts are even suggesting that daily oil prices could reach $70 per barrel within a week.  This analysis would be given a boost should we see a drop in tomorrow's EIA inventory figures.  In the meantime daily oil prices gained $1.60 yesterday and ended the day at $68.00 per barrel.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle made it three in a row of wide spread up bars fully supported by all three moving averages as we push on towards our initial target of $70 a barrel, and thereafter the $75 a barrel favoured by OPEC ministers at their meeting last week.  Whilst there is no reason to suppose from a technical perspective that this bullish move will not continue for some time, we need to temper our enthusiasm for crude oil prices with a degree of caution, as at some point the market will take a breather.  Some oil analysts are now suggesting that the non farm payroll figures on Friday could act as a short term trigger for such a reversal, particularly if the figures are worse than expected, triggering a fall in equities, a consequent strengthening of the US dollar, and as a result a pullback in oil prices.   In trading oil it is important to remember that no one factor will necessarily move the oil market but rather a blend of both the fundamental data and technical position on the daily oil chart.

The short term sideways while the medium and long term are bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $66.40 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.53 (high of 30/10/08)

Support:    $64.74 (low of 29/05/09)                              Resistance: $69.21 (high of 29/10/08)

Support:    $62.77 (low of 28/05/09)                              Resistance: $68.68 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $65.49 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $70.15 (high of 16/10/08)

Support:    $63.96 (low of 29/05/09)                             Resistance: $68.87 (high of 22/10/08)

Support:    $61.78 (low of 28/05/09)                              Resistance: $68.03 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Jun 2 2009, 09:44 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, Jun 1 2009, 09:41 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Despite bearish fundamentals for the oil market -  brimming inventories, over supply and plenty of spare capacity as well as a complete disconnect between supply and demand crude oil prices continue to soar higher.  The reason?  Chronic and generalised US dollar weakness as traders and investors turn to commodities (gold and oil especially) both as a safe haven and hedge against inflation.   Daily oil prices duly posted another strong rally on Friday gaining $1.80 to settle at $66.58, achieving yet another fresh high for 2009.  From a technical perspective everything on the daily oil chart is currently pointing to a move higher and Friday's candle was no exception opening and closing with virtually no shadow either top or bottom, indicative of a sustained move.  With very little in the way of resistance ahead we should now see a move to test the $75 per barrel level outlined by some OPEC members which provides the next stiff test for daily oil prices.

The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is sideways.

WTI:

Support:    $64.74 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $69.21 (high of 29/10/08)

Support:    $62.77 (low of 28/05/09)                              Resistance: $68.61 (high of 31/10/08)

Support:    $62.20 (low of 27/05/09)                              Resistance: $66.59 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $63.96 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $66.47 (high of 31/10/08)

Support:    $61.78 (low of 28/05/09)                             Resistance: $66.00 (high of 05/11/08)

Support:    $60.99 (low of 27/05/09)                              Resistance: $65.80 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Jun 1 2009, 09:41 GMT

Monthly Oil Prices

Sat, May 30 2009, 20:50 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices hit over $66 a barrel on Friday, setting a fresh high for the year and confirming their biggest monthly gain in over 10 years.  July contract for Nymex WTI rose 92 cents and at one point touched $66.03 (up 29.8% this month).  WTI is on course for its best monthly performance since March 1999 when it gained 36.5%.  July ICE Brent rose 90 cents to $65.29.  The exuberance in daily oil prices is a heady mix of OPEC's optimism that oil demand should increase in Asia and help push oil prices towards towards $70-$75 a barrel by the end of year, and speculation which has entered the commodity market.  The speculation factor is something that some OPEC members do not welcome given the problems caused last year when oil prices hit $150 a barrel, although so far inflows are no where near last year's peak.  The rally in oil prices has happened in spite of the bearish fundamentals of poor demand, too much supply and capacity and overflowing inventories.  However, the main driver for oil prices is the US dollar, the more it weakens the more oil prices are likely to rise (check out the dollar index for the likely direction of the US Dollar).

Published on  Sat, May 30 2009, 20:50 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, May 29 2009, 09:44 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's surge in crude oil prices saw daily oil prices hit an inter day high of $65.44 before settling at $64.83 giving oil traders an overall gain of $1.95.  All this on a day when the EIA oil stats confirmed a bigger than expected draw in crude inventories which added considerable to the bullish price move whilst the OPEC decision to maintain current quotas appeared to have little impact.  From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread up bar added momentum to the bullish move higher breaking above the consolidation area of the last few days and moving strongly through the $65 per barrel price, which was our initial target outlined in yesterday's oil market commentary.   This move higher is fully supported by all three moving averages on the daily oil chart, a picture which is fully endorsed by the weekly chart with the 40 week moving average providing strong support to a further move upwards.  Indeed there is nothing now in the way in terms of resistance between here and the next target in the medium term which is at $73.40, which would make the price of oil close to that suggested by the OPEC ministers at their meeting in Vienna yesterday where they intimated that a $75 a barrel would not be unacceptable.  The only caveat for today is that after such a strong move in the price of oil we may see many commodity traders closing positions ahead of the weekend and taking their profits off the table, and indeed with a national holiday in Europe on Monday we can expect thinner trading volumes across the markets until Tuesday.

The short, medium and long term are bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $62.77 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $68.61 (high of 31/10/08)

Support:    $62.20 (low of 27/05/09)                              Resistance: $65.57 (high of 10/11/08)

Support:    $60.85 (low of 25/05/09)                              Resistance: $65.44 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $61.78 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $66.47 (high of 31/10/08)

Support:    $60.99 (low of 27/05/09)                             Resistance: $66.00 (high of 05/11/08)

Support:    $59.85 (low of 25/05/09)                              Resistance: $64.68 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -5.4 (-0.9)      Distillates +0.2 (+1.2)    Gasoline -0.5 (-2.0)

Published on  Fri, May 29 2009, 09:44 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, May 28 2009, 10:25 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

In spite of nervous equity markets and a stronger dollar crude oil prices managed to stay bullish for most of yesterday as traders looked to technical factors on the oil chart to bounce daily oil prices to another fresh high of $63.81.  However, a bout of mild profit taking did push the oil price back down and it finished the day 30 cents higher, settling at $63.00.   Focus for the oil market today is the OPEC meeting in Vienna and the holiday delayed EIA stats, either of which could spring a minor surprise.  In addition we can also expect thinner than usual trading volumes as China, Hong Kong and Taiwan are closed for a national holiday - dragon boat racing holiday which sounds great fun - and my trading suggestion for today is to wait and step aside from the market.   From a technical perspective with all three moving averages still pointing higher there is no reason at present, to suppose that the bullish momentum we have seen on the oil chart for the last few days will not continue.

The short and medium term trends are bullish and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $62.20 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $65.57 (high of 10/11/08)

Support:    $61.03 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $65.48 (high of 06/11/08)

Support:    $60.85 (low of 25/05/09)                              Resistance: $63.81 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $60.99 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $66.00 (high of 05/11/08)

Support:    $59.85 (low of 25/05/09)                              Resistance: $63.59 (high of 27/10/08)

Support:    $58.83 (low of 21/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.75 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels

Crude -0.9      Distillates +1.2    Gasoline -2.0

Published on  Thu, May 28 2009, 10:25 GMT

Latest Oil News

Wed, May 27 2009, 18:30 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Interesting times ahead for oil traders as oil futures continue to trade above the $62 per barrel price point.  Statements made in advance of the OPEC meeting by Ali Naimi, Saudi Arabia's oil minister in support of higher prices which he believes will follow as a result of an increase in demand from China has only added to the bullish mood in the oil market.   Saudi Arabia is also warning that oil prices could even go beyond the record high of 2008 when crude oil prices almost touched $150 per barrel.   Technically the oil chart is telling oil traders that the double bottom formed during December to March targets the oil price at $68 per barrel plus.   With the market desperate to see signs of a recovery and speculative inflows into crude oil plus a weakening dollar oil traders may reach this price point sooner rather than later.

Published on  Wed, May 27 2009, 18:30 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, May 27 2009, 11:12 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Daily oil prices came under some pressure as the US dollar rebounded on the political tensions with North Korea as well as the toxic debt still lurking in the German banking system.  However, investors soon began selling dollars once again as equities pushed higher with the Dow posting a triple digit gain on the back of increasing consumer confidence.  As result crude oil prices managed to close the day on a fresh high of $62.55 which was our initial price target for the price of oil in the current move.  Owing to the national holiday on Monday in the US the oil stats are running a day late and the only data due out today are the API (American Petroleum Institute) and which are expected to show a decrease in the oil inventory.  Meantime the oil market is waiting for the start of the OPEC meeting and we have already had an insight into member thinking with Saudi Oil Minister Ali al-Nuaimi stating on his arrival in the Austrian capital that the cartel is likely to maintain current production quotas.  "We will stay the course," said the minister, whose country is OPEC's biggest oil producer.  He also said that they were looking for oil prices to rise to $75 per barrel, "we hope between the third and fourth quarter" of this year.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle suggests that this bullish momentum for daily oil prices has not yet run out of steam, ending the day with a deep lower wick which bounced the 14 day moving average and closing with a nice flat top.  This price action has been confirmed in early trading this morning, and indeed the opening price for oil was gapped up on a "rising window" once again adding weight to the move higher, although we are now preparing for the weekly round of EIA data coupled with the OPEC meeting, so we need to be a little cautious in our oil trading.

The short and medium term trends are sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $60.85 (low of 25/05/09)                              Resistance: $65.48 (high of 06/11/08)

Support:    $60.49 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $62.87 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:    $59.89 (low of 20/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.55 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $59.85 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $62.38 (high of 06/11/08)

Support:    $59.23 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $61.98 (high of 10/11/08)

Support:    $57.69 (low of 19/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.35 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, May 27 2009, 11:12 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, May 26 2009, 10:05 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

With both the US and UK markets closed for a national holiday daily oil prices simply consolidated in a quiet trading session dominated by thin volumes and lack of any meaningful fundamental news.  The focus for the oil market today is the OPEC meeting later this week, the continuing unrest in Nigeria and the problems with Shell.  From a technical perspective the oil prices consolidated sideways ending the day 76 cents lower at $61.22, having managed to reach an inter-day high of $62.13 and finished the day on a narrow spread down bar.  The last four days of oil trading have seen the high of each day fail to clear the $62 per barrel price point in any meaningful way suggesting that we may be seeing the formation of a temporary resistance level to any move higher at present, and indeed this morning we have seen a pullback in oil prices which are currently just above the 9 day moving average which seems to be providing support at present.  With all three moving averages still pointing higher, this may only be a temporary reversal with the oil market taking a breather, and therefore should be seen as an excellent opportunity to open longer term position trades on the prospect of the bullish move continuing in due course.

The short and medium term trends are sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $60.85 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $62.95 (high of 11/11/08)

Support:    $60.48 (low of 22/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.25 (high of 20/05/09)

Support:    $59.89 (low of 20/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.13 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $59.85 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $62.38 (high of 06/11/08)

Support:    $58.83 (low of 21/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.98 (high of 10/11/08)

Support:    $57.69 (low of 19/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.16 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, May 26 2009, 10:05 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, May 25 2009, 11:07 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Despite last Friday's choppy trading session daily oil prices managed to gain 28 cents to settle at $61.48.  The oil price was also supported by a rebound in equity markets as well as a weakening of the US dollar and with traders now focusing on this week's OPEC meeting it will be interesting to see if member countries still feel the need for further production cuts given that the price of crude is so close to a level broadly acceptable to the oil market. From a technical perspective Friday's price action was very similar to Thursday's with the candle closing on a narrow spread doji indicative of thin volumes as traders closed positions ahead of the three day weekend, and as such it is difficult to draw any meaningful conclusion, other than the price of oil is now preparing itself for a launch towards the $65 per barrel price point in due course fully supported by all three moving averages.

The short and medium term trends are sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $60.48 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $62.95 (high of 11/11/08)

Support:    $59.89 (low of 20/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.25 (high of 20/05/09)

Support:    $59.60 (low of 10/11/08)                              Resistance: $61.97 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $59.61 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $62.38 (high of 06/11/08)

Support:    $58.83 (low of 21/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.98 (high of 10/11/08)

Support:    $57.69 (low of 19/05/09)                              Resistance: $60.94 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, May 25 2009, 11:07 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, May 22 2009, 09:39 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Whilst nervous equity markets may have been the reason for a sell off in crude oil prices the fall in the daily price of oil was relatively modest, a mere 43 cents to settle at $61.07, as the energy complex was well supported by a dramatic weakening of the US dollar, in particular, against the Euro.  It now remains to be seen whether the rally in oil prices can be sustained ahead of the national holiday in many countries and the unofficial start of the US driving season.  However, we need to be cautious for a number of reasons, first the oil market's recent bull run will undoubtedly trigger a bout of profit taking ahead of the long weekend and second thin trading volumes may cause a degree of price volatility.  From a technical perspective yesterday's candle ended the session as an "inside day" pattern with the high and the low engulfed by the previous day's candle, suggesting that the bullish tone remains firmly in place and our initial target of $65 per barrel now seems achievable albeit in the medium rather than the short term.   With all three moving averages pointing higher, and supporting the trend, my suggestion for today is to bank any current profits as traders square their accounts of the weekend and then to look for new long positions next week buying into the market on any intra-day dips or daily reversals.

The short and medium term trends are sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $59.92 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $63.52 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:    $58.93 (low of 19/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.95 (high of 11/11/08)

Support:    $58.34 (low of 13/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.84 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $58.83 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $62.38 (high of 06/11/08)

Support:    $57.69 (low of 19/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.98 (high of 10/11/08)

Support:    $56.87 (low of 12/05/09)                              Resistance: $60.68 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 22 2009, 09:39 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, May 21 2009, 12:50 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's expectation of a down bar failed to materialise and therefore our concerns over the evening star candle of the previous day were unfounded as daily oil prices moved forward strongly closing the day on a wide spread up bar finishing well above, and strongly supported by, all three moving averages, and breaking through the $60 per barrel price point once again.  The price of crude oil ended the day at $61.65, a gain of $1.55 having also achieved a record high for the year of $62.25 per barrel during the oil trading session.   From a fundamental perspective oil prices were given this boost by better than expected EIA figures which showed a larger than expected draw in crude inventories as well as a weakening of the US dollar.

From a technical perspective the saucer pattern of the last 6 months is now perfectly formed on the daily oil price chart as the price of oil continues to track back up towards the resistance at $65 per barrel created back in October 2008.  This is the next significant area in the path of a move higher and may provide stubborn resistance to crude oil prices moving forward.

The short and medium term trends are sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $59.89 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $63.52 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:    $58.93 (low of 19/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.95 (high of 11/11/08)

Support:    $58.34 (low of 13/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.25 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $58.76 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $62.38 (high of 06/11/08)

Support:    $57.69 (low of 19/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.98 (high of 10/11/08)

Support:    $56.87 (low of 12/05/09)                              Resistance: $60.80 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Thu, May 21 2009, 12:50 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, May 20 2009, 08:50 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices continued their upward trend yesterday reaching an intra day high of $60.99, a record also for 2009 and last seen on 11th November 2008 although prices did fall back in later trading, the oil price still managed a 75 cent gain to settle at $60.49.  The bullish mood of the oil price chart is despite continuing weakness in US housing data (the lowest since records began in 1955!) and relatively flat equity markets.  It may be that the oil market is factoring in the civil unrest in Nigeria which is disrupting supplies, as well as a fall in today's EIA data which is expected to show a slight draw in inventories.   From a technical perspective yesterday's candle provides us with two interesting points to consider which are as follows.  First yesterday's open was gapped up from Monday's wide spread up bar, and secondly, and perhaps more importantly the day ended with a spinning top candle which could be considered the precursor to an evening star candle pattern which if confirmed today would present us with a strongly bearish signal.  From this morning's trading it is difficult to say whether we will indeed see a wide spread down bar on the day but, if so, then this would confirm this pattern but naturally we need to wait for the close of the day and as such I would suggest a degree of caution in your oil trading today.


The short term trend is sideways, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

 
WTI:

 
Support:    $58.93 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $63.52 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:    $58.34 (low of 13/05/09)                              Resistance: $62.95 (high of 11/11/08)

Support:    $57.54 (low of 14/05/09)                              Resistance: $60.99 (yesterday’s high)

 

OIL (BRENT):

                                                                                                          

Support:    $57.69 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $62.38 (high of 06/11/08)

Support:    $56.87 (low of 12/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.98 (high of 10/11/08)

Support:    $55.91 (low of 18/05/09)                              Resistance: $59.65 (yesterday’s high)

  

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

 
Crude -0.7      Distillates unchanged    Gasoline -1.4

Published on  Wed, May 20 2009, 08:50 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, May 19 2009, 07:53 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's rally in crude oil prices which saw the daily oil price gain 5% and closed the day at $59.69, a $2.62 gain on the day, was the result of a variety of factors.  First on a day largely bereft of any meaningful fundamental news on the economic calendar, the equity markets responded by assuming that no news was good news and therefore rose on sentiment only, pulling daily oil prices along in their wake.  Secondly further civil unrest in Nigeria also added some impetus to oil prices on fears of yet further oil supply problems from this part of the world, and finally a weakening in the US dollar caused by investors deciding to throw risk aversion to the wind added to the bullish mix in the energy complex.   From a technical perspective yesterday's wide spread up bar bounced neatly off the 14 day moving average and closed above the 9, providing a bullish reversal which has continued in early trading this morning, most notably with a gapped up opening or "rising window" pushing the price of oil over $60 a barrel once again.  Following the last 7 days of sideways consolidation between $57 a barrel and $59 a barrel, we may now be seeing a sustained break to the upside for daily oil prices, and our initial target is now $62.45 which, if achieved, could open the way to a move back to $65 and beyond.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $56.85 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $60.86 (high of 12/05/09)

Support:    $55.13 (low of 06/05/09)                              Resistance: $60.70 (high of 13/05/09)

Support:    $54.56 (low of 26/03/09)                              Resistance: $59.92 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $55.91 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $59.43 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:    $55.43 (low of 07/05/09)                              Resistance: $59.05 (high of 13/05/09)

Support:    $53.86 (low of 06/05/09)                              Resistance: $58.86 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, May 19 2009, 07:53 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, May 18 2009, 07:47 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices closed the day on Friday with a wide spread down bar closing the session $2.37 lover to settle at $57.08 for the week, as traders squared their positions ahead of the weekend and took profits off the table.  From a technical perspective Friday's candle provided a bearish signal engulfing the previous day's candle, which also reinforced the identical 2 bar pattern for Tuesday and Wednesday which again was bearish engulfing, both of which provide us with warning signals for daily oil prices in the short term.  This view is reinforced by the fact that the close of Friday finished below the 9 day moving average and marginally above the 14 day indicating a temporary reversal in sentiment for the price of oil.  In addition it may be that the oil market is finally taking notice of the bearish fundamentals with regard to oil demand, with the EIA, IEA and OPEC all downgrading forecasts earlier last week saying crude demand is weak and non OPEC supply is lagging and perhaps it was only a matter of time before the fundamental facts overcame the sentimental views of the oil market.  From a technical perspective the defining move for any reversal will be whether the support currently in place at the $54 per barrel price point manages to hold, and if so then this may only be a temporary reversal as the market takes a breather, but if this is breached then we may see support at the $50 per barrel region tested in due course.  Given the lack of general fundamental news my trading suggestion today is to step aside and wait for further confirmation of last week's two major bearish candles.

The short term trend is sideways, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $56.74 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $60.86 (high of 12/05/09)

Support:    $55.13 (low of 06/05/09)                              Resistance: $60.70 (high of 13/05/09)

Support:    $54.56 (low of 26/03/09)                              Resistance: $59.59 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $55.85 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $59.43 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:    $55.43 (low of 07/05/09)                              Resistance: $59.05 (high of 13/05/09)

Support:    $53.86 (low of 06/05/09)                              Resistance: $58.91 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, May 18 2009, 07:47 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, May 15 2009, 08:59 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Owing to technical problems, namely no internet connection I have combined 2 day's worth of commentaries for you.

Commentary for Thursday 14th May 2009:

Following better than expected crude oil inventories which under normal circumstances would be seen as having a bullish impact, crude oil oil prices experienced a sell off aided and abetted by a weaker dollar and stumbling equity markets.   This was in contrast to early trading when daily oil prices managed to reach an intra-day high of $59.87, just failing to break above the $60 mark which is now becoming of increasing importance as a technical target for any future move higher in the price of oil.   Yesterday's price action followed an impressive 2 week rally which has seen oil prices gain by $10 a barrel ($50.00 - $60.00) so yesterday’s price move which finished $1.73 hardly came as a great surprise as profit takers entered the market.  Daily oil prices eventually settled at $57.70. From a technical perspective we need to aware that yesterday's candle provided a bearish engulfing signal which, if confirmed, could be the portent of a short term retracement for oil prices.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $57.40 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $61.06 (high of 11/11/08)

Support:    $56.80 (low of 11/05/09)                              Resistance: $60.06 (high of 12/05/09)

Support:    $55.42 (low of 07/05/09)                              Resistance: $59.87 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $56.88 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $61.98 (high of 10/11/08)

Support:    $56.31 (low of 11/05/09)                              Resistance: $59.43 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:    $55.43 (low of 07/05/09)                              Resistance: $59.05 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Crude -4.7 (+1.3)      Distillates +1.0 (+1.3)    Gasoline -4.1 (unchanged)

Friday 15th May 2009 Commentary:

Crude oil prices initially declined declined in early trading appearing to confirm Wednesday's bearish engulfing candle, however in later trading oil prices recovered once again, closing the day 60 cents up and settling at $59.39, on an up-bar with a deep lower shadow which bounced off the 9 day moving average suggesting that we may see a move higher today.   However, we must bear in mind the signal of Wednesday as this could still influence oil prices in the next few days, and as outlined above the $60 price point is now taking on increasing significance on the daily oil chart.   With many traders squaring positions ahead of the weekend, my suggestion for today would be to stand aside to see if Wednesday's engulfing candle does indeed hold sway.

The short term trend is sideways, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $57.54 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $60.86 (high of 12/05/09)

Support:    $56.72 (low of 07/05/09)                              Resistance: $60.70 (high of 13/05/09)

Support:    $55.13 (low of 06/05/09)                              Resistance: $59.85 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $56.00 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $59.05 (high of 13/05/09)

Support:    $55.43 (low of 07/05/09)                              Resistance: $58.09 (high of 11/05/09)

Support:    $53.86 (low of 06/05/09)                              Resistance: $57.28 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 15 2009, 08:59 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, May 13 2009, 08:23 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices hit $60 per barrel, a price point last seen in November 2008, on hopes on a global recovery, a weaker US dollar and growing investor appetite for riskier assets such as commodities.  The leading commodity index, S&P GSCI also soared to its highest level since November and is up 20% this year.  All this flies in the face of weak supply and demand fundamentals which will probably be reinforced by today's EIA stats which are expected to show a further increase in crude oil inventories.   If, however, the inventory build is smaller than expected then this too could add further momentum to current rally in daily oil prices.   Overall spot oil gained 93 cents to settle at $59.30 and is now looking towards the next resistance target of $61.06 (high of 11th November) which the oil price is likely to achieve if this current self-sustaining rally manages to hold.  From a technical perspective yesterday's up move continued the trend of last few weeks with strong support provided by all three moving averages and with very little sign that the current trend is likely to stall at any point soon.  It is interesting to note that this morning's oil price has opened gapped up on a rising window suggesting further momentum to the current bullish trend as we now approach the psychological $60 per barrel once again and a close above here today should open the way for an attack on the $62.40 level and above.  My trading suggestion for today is as of yesterday, which is to continue to look for small long positions on an inter-day basis using the 30 minute and hourly chart, and to build on these positions longer term should we see a break above $62.40 in due course.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $57.80 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $62.87 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:    $56.80 (low of 11/05/09)                              Resistance: $61.06 (high of 11/11/08)

Support:    $55.42 (low of 07/05/09)                              Resistance: $60.06 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $56.87 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $61.98 (high of 10/11/08)

Support:    $56.31 (low of 11/05/09)                              Resistance: $59.43 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:    $55.43 (low of 07/05/09)                              Resistance: $58.91 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Crude +1.3      Distillates +1.3    Gasoline unchanged

Published on  Wed, May 13 2009, 08:23 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, May 12 2009, 09:21 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Although crude oil prices traded for much of yesterday in negative territory, possibly as a result of profit taking given that oil prices have rallied over $9 in the last 8 days, daily oil prices did manage to rally in late trading with light sweet crude finishing the day at $58.50.   In addition the oil market is now turning its attention to the next OPEC meeting even though analysts think that this is likely to have a muted effect on the energy complex.

From a technical perspective we have had 3 very interesting consecutive candles on the daily oil price chart, starting with Thursday, Friday and yesterday, all of which have peculiarities which may prove significant in the next few days.  We started on Thursday with an important shooting star candle indicating possible weakness, which strangely was then followed by a gapped up opening and a strong close with no wicks top or bottom.  The gapped up opening was odd in itself and certainly not what one would expect but one has to therefore assume that the previous day's signal was a failed sign of weakness.  This was followed yesterday by an inside day hanging man which on this occasion opened gapped down from Friday but closed precisely on the open and with a deep lower wick. With so many contradictory signals and with a substantial move higher in the last 8 days my trading instinct is that we should be cautious in trading oil for the next few days, particularly as in my opinion, the rally in crude oil prices is being driven by sentiment rather than the key fundamentals, and indeed the oil inventories are still indicating that the world is awash with crude oil at present.  Whilst all three moving averages are pointing higher, and indeed my trading suggestion for today is to continue to look for small long positions, my over-riding recommendation is to trade with caution, tight stop losses and aim for small profit targets, as we may see a major pullback in this rally in the short term.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $56.80 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $59.65 (high of 13/11/08)

Support:    $55.42 (low of 07/05/09)                              Resistance: $58.95 (high of 17/11/08)

Support:    $54.58 (low of 13/11/08)                              Resistance: $58.63 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $56.31 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $59.43 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:    $55.43 (low of 07/05/09)                              Resistance: $58.59 (high of 11/11/08)

Support:    $53.86 (low of 06/05/09)                              Resistance: $58.09 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, May 12 2009, 09:21 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Mon, May 11 2009, 10:09 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Last week crude oil prices broke through the $58 per barrel price point on renewed hopes that the global economy was on the mend. This growing optimism was reinforced by Friday's non farm payroll data which in coming in marginally better than expected helped to rally the equity markets. The data also precipitated a steep fall in the dollar which also boosted daily oil prices as the oil market continues to ignore the more bearish supply/demand fundamentals. However, considering how far and fast the oil price has bounced in the face of these poor fundamentals some short term reversal is inevitable, and indeed in this morning's early trading oil prices opened gapped down from Friday's close with a steady fall during the trading session as oil traders take profits.

From a technical perspective the rally in crude oil prices on Friday resulted in daily oil prices making a new high of $58.73, gaining $1.86 and actually settling on the high of the day. With strong support from all three moving averages there is no reason to suppose that this bullish momentum will not continue in due course with the first price target being $60 and if this is breached we could see a move to re-test resistance in the $65 per barrel price region in the medium. All this may happen sooner given the extent to which the US dollar seems to be weakening and this is clearly indicated on the dollar index chart. My trading suggestion for today is to look for buying opportunities on an intra day basis as the market falls during the day.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support: $56.87 (Friday’s low) Resistance: $59.65 (high of 13/11/08)

Support: $55.42 (low of 07/05/09) Resistance: $58.95 (high of 17/11/08)

Support: $54.72 (9 day moving average) Resistance: $58.73 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support: $56.64 (Friday’s low) Resistance: $59.43 (high of 07/11/08)

Support: $55.43 (low of 07/05/09) Resistance: $58.59 (high of 11/11/08)

Support: $53.86 (low of 06/05/09) Resistance: $58.50 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, May 11 2009, 10:09 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, May 8 2009, 09:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices enjoyed a lively day initially moving up sharply on the back of a weaker US dollar which followed the ECB interest rate decision and subsequent press conference touching an intra day high of $58.57 but fell back once equity markets stalled.  All this nervous price action left us with an extremely interesting day on the daily WTI oil price chart with a strongly bearish signal of a shooting star sitting atop a short term rally and closing the day marginally higher at $56.45, 15 cents on the day.  With a long upper shadow and a traditional shooting star configuration one would normally expect to see a short term reversal from such a candle.  However, indicative of the current oil trading climate the market perversely has in fact opened gapped up and oil prices are continuing to rise in early trading and seem determined to push on to the $60 per barrel price point.   Whilst technical analysis is more of an art than a science it does seem that in the crude oil market at present neither the fundamental nor technical perspective is influencing oil prices, which almost seem to be trading in a "bubble" driven by an optimism that oil demand will increase in due course and which will coincide with further production cuts from OPEC driving prices yet higher.  This mood seems to be prevalent across many commodities.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $55.42 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $59.65 (high of 13/11/08)

Support:    $54.72 (low of 17/11/08)                              Resistance: $58.85 (high of 14/11/08)

Support:    $53.59 (low of 06/05/09)                              Resistance: $58.57 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $55.43 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $59.43 (high of 07/11/08)

Support:    $53.86 (low of 06/05/09)                              Resistance: $58.59 (high of 11/11/08)

Support:    $53.42 (low of 14/11/08)                              Resistance: $58.22 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 8 2009, 09:56 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, May 7 2009, 09:43 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday crude oil prices moved sharply higher supported by soaring equity markets and a bullish EIA report which showed that there had been a dramatic decline in the oil inventory stockpiles, with the figure coming in at +600k barrels as opposed to a forecast of 2.0m barrels.   In addition investors are increasingly looking to the commodity markets to provide better returns as optimism grows that the global economy may be starting to recover.   Yesterday's price action saw daily oil prices set a new high for 2009 with the oil price touching $56.64, a price point not seen since November 17th 2008.   Crude ended the day gaining $2.23 in a $3.05 range and is now looking to the next upside target $62.40 where crude oil prices will start to meet significant resistance once again. From a technical perspective all three moving averages are now pointing to a move higher adding weight to yesterday's wide spread up bar which broke out from the final level of resistance in this price band, and we now look towards the psychologically important $60 per barrel and above.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $53.59 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $59.65 (high of 13/11/08)

Support:    $52.77 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $58.85 (high of 14/11/08)

Support:    $52.56 (low of 04/05/09)                              Resistance: $56.64 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $53.86 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $58.59 (high of 11/11/08)

Support:    $53.64 (low of 05/05/09)                              Resistance: $56.80 (high of 14/11/08)

Support:    $52.36 (low of 04/05/09)                              Resistance: $56.30 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions of barrels)

Crude +0.6 (+2.0)      Distillates +2.4 (+1.0)    Gasoline -0.2 (+0.5)

Published on  Thu, May 7 2009, 09:43 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Wed, May 6 2009, 09:25 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's oil trading session was a paradox in that while daily oil prices continued to consolidate the day also produced a price spike to $54.80, a re-test of the 2009 high.   The price of oil also held even as equities softened and the US dollar strengthened in later trading.  However, today's EIA oil inventory figures, which are expected to show a further increase may only impact the energy complex if accompanied with nervousness in equity markets as they await the results of the bank stress tests.

From a technical perspective yesterday's candle was one of indecision with a small spinning top on the day, following two days of widespread up bars, and therefore perhaps providing an early warning signal that we could see daily oil prices fall today, or possibly repeat the price action of yesterday.  In addition we also need to consider the strength or otherwise of the resistance outlined above at $54.20 which now seems to be coming into play and may prove decisive for any move higher in the price of oil.  Should we see this price breached in today's oil trading then spot oil traders can be reasonably confident in entering long positions moving forward and with a medium term price target of $58.24.

The short term trend is bullish, the medium term trend is sideways and the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $53.49 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $56.10 (high of 28/11/08)

Support:    $52.56 (low of 04/05/09)                              Resistance: $55.30 (high of 24/11/08)

Support:    $51.91 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $54.80 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $53.64 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $56.15 (high of 17/11/08)

Support:    $52.36 (low of 04/05/09)                              Resistance: $55.92 (high of 12/11/08)

Support:    $51.58 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $54.91 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Published on  Wed, May 6 2009, 09:25 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Tue, May 5 2009, 08:56 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices continue to take their cue from the wider markets which seem determined to take a "glass half full" view of the global economy and yesterday's rally in the daily oil price was supported by a strong performance in the Dow Jones and a weakening of the US dollar.  Spot oil prices reached an intra day high of $54.60 a barrel and ended the day on a wide spread up bar closing above the resistance created in mid April at $54.10, and well above all three moving averages which are now beginning to diverge once again.  This week could be a seminal one for crude oil trading which could provide the future direction for oil prices in the next few weeks.  The reasons are several but primarily revolve around the release of the bank stress tests which may suggest that some of the major banking institutions are in a worse shape than was first thought, coupled with a raft of economic data, interest rate decisions, crude oil inventories and the start of the US driving season.  All of these factors could combine into some unusual and extreme volatility this week coupled thinner than usual market trading due to the extended Japanese holiday.   Tough, but potentially very profitably, conditions for trading oil.  Given the "minor breakout" of yesterday and the gapped opening of yesterday's candle supported all three moving averages, my suggestion is, once again, to look for small intra day long positions buying on any dips in the market but only if prices hold the $53.50 region.  In addition I would strongly suggest keeping a close eye on the euro dollar pair in the currency market.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $52.56 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $55.30 (high of 24/11/08)

Support:    $51.46 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $54.75 (high of 26/03/09)

Support:    $50.48 (14 day moving average)                        Resistance: $54.60 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $52.36 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $55.92 (high of 12/11/08)

Support:    $51.33 (14 day moving average)                        Resistance: $54.90 (high of 28/11/08)

Support:    $51.05 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $54.78 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, May 5 2009, 08:56 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Fri, May 1 2009, 09:51 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices yesterday mirrored the ebb and flow of equity markets as daily oil prices initially climbed with stock markets but then fell back in tandem as stocks failed to hold onto early gains.  The price of oil was also dented by some Dollar strength which emerged later in the day.  However, underlying crude's price action is the oil market's determination to discount the bearish fundamentals to continue drifting sideways with an upwards bias, supported by all three moving averages which are now tightly intertwined.

Technically crude oil achieved a high yesterday of $51.92 but the rally ran out of steam and consequently we saw oil giving up some of its early gains, to close the day marginally above the $50 per barrel price point, leaving us with a narrow spread doji candle.  Overall crude oil prices, advanced a mere 16 cents and appears to be on course for our next upside target at $52.44 last seen on April 9th.  My trading suggestion for today is to stand aside as many markets will be closed for the May Day holiday and trading volumes will, as a consequence, be very thin and price action erratic.

The short and medium term trends for oil prices are sideways, the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $50.21 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $52.87 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $50.04 (9 day moving average)                         Resistance: $52.44 (high of 09/04/09)

Support:    $49.65 (14 day moving average)                        Resistance: $51.92 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $50.00 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $53.06 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $49.25 (low of 29/04/09)                              Resistance: $52.09 (high of 24/04/09)

Support:    $48.40 (low of 27/04/09)                              Resistance: $51.39 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, May 1 2009, 09:51 GMT

Daily Oil Prices

Thu, Apr 30 2009, 09:24 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday’s EIA report showed a surprisingly large draw in gasoline stocks which counterbalanced another sizable build in crude oil supplies even pencilling in a bigger than expected increase. So once again it was left to a strong advance in the equity markets and additional weakening in the US dollar to provide assistance for crude oil prices, and as result of renewed buying interest in the energy complex, with crude oil prices being dragged higher following the release of the GDP data, which came in at -6.1% against a forecast of -4.8%. In normal times, such figures would be greeted by the markets with horror, and yet in today's unpredictable climate, this triggered a positive response with a return of risk appetite and consequent rise in equities, which seems to be symptomatic of the markets at present, which are constantly looking for the good news story, wrapped within the bad! Yesterday's silver lining was the reduction in public spending which sent the broader markets higher and lifting oil prices as a result. Ironically however,one has to look back over 50 years to find a worse 6 month economic performance in the United States than that of the last  two quarters, and while the signs are that the current second quarter will create the longest and deepest recession in history, investors are reacting to the fact that businesses have cut their inventories dramatically, thus ensuring a shorter delivery time between final demand and manufacturing production as businesses will need to physically manufacture and produce in order to fulfill new orders. Again, another piece of good news that the markets have seized upon with relish!

From a technical perspective, daily oil prices moved higher yesterday gaining $1.31 for the day to settle at $50.76 and with a mere 39 cents difference between the moving averages it was easy to see a cross above all these indicators. So although crude managed to breach and hold above the $50.00 mark the convergence of all three moving averages provides little in the way of meaningful analysis at present from these indicators, which must therefore be treated with a degree of caution. On the upside the next target is at $52.44 last seen on April 9th followed by the March end highs at just below $55. However a decline back to the moving averages is a possible outcome if oil runs out of steam here as the $45-$55 range is still firmly in the picture. Trading in all markets is extremely difficult at present, partly due to the current flu pandemic, and partly to the current perverse view of the markets to any news outlined above, so to trade spot oil, we need to be extremely careful in the next few weeks. My trading suggestion for today is therefore to attempt small long positions on an intra day basis using the 15 minute and 30 minute charts, a view reinforced in early oil trading this morning with a gapped up opening in the daily oil chart.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $49.15 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $52.87 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $48.57 (low of 28/04/09)                              Resistance: $52.44 (high of 09/04/09)

Support:    $47.73 (low of 22/04/09)                              Resistance: $51.63 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $49.25 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $53.06 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $48.40 (low of 27/04/09)                              Resistance: $52.09 (high of 24/04/09)

Support:    $47.47 (low of 31/03/09)                              Resistance: $51.28 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock Figures (change in millions bbls)

Crude    +4.1 (+2.2)      Gasoline -4.7 (-0.2)     Distillate +1.8 (+0.7)

Published on  Thu, Apr 30 2009, 09:24 GMT

Daily Oil Prices − 29th April 2009

Wed, Apr 29 2009, 11:20 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday's API (Amerian Petroleum Institute) data reported a 4.6 million barrel build in oil inventories, a 2.6 million barrel draw on gasoline stockpiles and a 1.6 million barrel increase in distillate inventories with refining capacity estimated at 81.5%.  US oil stocks are now at 370.6 million barrels, the highest since September 1990 when the stockpile reached 391.9 million barrels in July, the highest reported level since at least 1982.  Today's EIA data set is also expected to show an increase for the 8th straight week and analysts estimate an average increase to the stockpile of 2.2 million barrels, while gasoline stocks are expected to fall by 200k barrels and distillates, which include heating oil and diesel fuel are expected to increase by 700k barrels.  Analysts also expect refining capacity to rise by 0.1% to 83.5% of capacity.

All this bearish fundamental data and worries about the effect that swine flu could have on any recovery in the economic downturn coupled with a negative impact on the US driving season have all failed to dampen the oil price which seems to be impervious to all the bad news and appears remarkably resilient.   As outlined in yesterday's market commentary we did indeed see a re-run of Monday's price action with an initial fall followed by a later rally in daily oil prices which whilst ending the day down, closed above both the 9 and 40 day moving averages, suggesting once again that there is a bullish element underlying current price action, and indeed in early trading  WTI crude oil prices have broken back above the psychological $50 per barrel once again.  The fundamental news due out later both for EIA oil stats, US Advance GDP and FOMC rate statement may all have a major impact on being able to trade spot oil today and this morning's price action may simply be a short squeeze.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $48.57 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $51.75 (high of 24/04/09)

Support:    $47.73 (low of 22/04/09)                              Resistance: $51.20 (high of 27/04/09)

Support:    $46.73 (low of 21/04/09)                              Resistance: $50.16 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $48.88 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $52.09 (high of 24/04/09)

Support:    $48.40 (low of 27/04/09)                              Resistance: $51.19 (high of 27/04/09)

Support:    $47.47 (low of 31/03/09)                              Resistance: $50.42 (yesterday’s high)

DOE Stock estimates (change in millions of barrels)

Crude +2.2      Distillates +0.7    Gasoline -0.2

Published on  Wed, Apr 29 2009, 11:20 GMT

Daily WTI Oil Prices − 28th April 2009

Tue, Apr 28 2009, 10:02 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Crude oil prices took their cue from continuing weakness in the equity markets following the Wall Street Journal's report that early stress test results suggest that both Bank of America and Citigroup may need to raise further capital in order to repair their balance sheets.  In addition the oil price came under pressure from a return to the dollar as investors become ever more alarmed at the consequences of swine flu on the world's fragile economy so this week's FOMC rate decision will be watched even more closely and no doubt impact across all markets.

From a technical perspective following last week's rally in oil prices, crude oil moved down yesterday reaching an intra day low of $48.01, crossing through and beyond all three moving averages, before rebounding higher in the evening session to close back above all three once again, leaving us with a down bar with a deep lower shadow.  What was interesting in this price action was that the close of the day finished above the psychologically important $50 per barrel price point once again.  Given the deep lower shadow one might have expected the price of oil to rise in early trading this morning since this candle formation suggests that the bulls have overcome the bears and are regaining control, however, this is not the case this morning, although we could be seeing a re-run of yesterday price action so it would not be a surprise to see the daily oil price move higher as the US markets open later in the day.  My trading suggestion for today is to therefore to look for small long positions intra day in the current reversal using the 15 and 30 minute charts for your entry positions and using a very tight stop loss.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $48.01 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $52.44 (high of 09/04/09)

Support:    $47.73 (low of 22/04/09)                              Resistance: $51.75 (high of 24/04/09)

Support:    $46.73 (low of 21/04/09)                              Resistance: $51.20 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $48.40 (yesterday’s low)                              Resistance: $53.18 (high of 07/04/09)

Support:    $47.47 (low of 31/03/09)                              Resistance: $52.09 (high of 24/04/09)

Support:    $47.26 (low of 01/04/09)                              Resistance: $51.19 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Tue, Apr 28 2009, 10:02 GMT

Daily WTI Oil Prices − 27th April 2009

Mon, Apr 27 2009, 13:51 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Despite a slew of bearish fundamentals crude oil prices seem determined to remain optimistic and focus on any glimmer of positive economic data, such as the better than expected March durable good orders which on Friday came in better than expected.  The oil price was given an extra fillip by a weaker dollar, equity markets determined to hold onto recent gains and a preliminary OPEC report suggesting that  the cartel did not expect to cut production at its May 28th meeting but simply continue to enforce the cuts already agreed.  However, oil traders and investors must surely begin to question just how long this disconnect can continue.

From a technical perspective the price of crude oil closed last week by surging $2 to settle at $51.55, which built on Thursday's gains, with crude oil prices closing ahead of the weekend with a bullish tone, surging 2 dollars to settle at $51.55, the highest level since April 9th, and breaking above all three moving averages. Breaching and holding above the short term moving averages has now provided us with a bullish signal and has opened the way for the next upside target at $52.44 to be approached in the next few days. However, given the strange chart candle patterns last week, and the formation of a pennant pattern in the daily chart, we need to be cautious in our trading, and we may well see some further sideways consolidation in the price of oil, before any sustained move higher. The key to any continued bullish move will be whether the price of oil can break above and hold at the $54 per barrel price point.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, the long term trend is bearish.

WTI:

Support:    $49.06 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $52.87 (high of 02/04/09)

Support:    $48.38 (low of 23/04/09)                              Resistance: $52.44 (high of 09/04/09)

Support:    $47.73 (low of 22/04/09)                              Resistance: $51.75 (Friday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $49.50 (Friday’s low)                                 Resistance: $53.59 (high of 08/04/09)

Support:    $48.85 (low of 22/04/09)                              Resistance: $53.18 (high of 07/04/09)

Support:    $47.47 (low of 31/03/09)                              Resistance: $52.09 (Friday’s high)

Published on  Mon, Apr 27 2009, 13:51 GMT

Daily Oil Price − WTI Crude Oil Futures 24th April 2009

Fri, Apr 24 2009, 11:05 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Against all the fundamental odds, which include weak global demand and an every increasing swelling of the oil stocks both on and offshore, crude oil prices continue to trade near the $50 a barrel price point largely on the view that economic conditions are on the up.  This show of strength in the energy complex was also helped by a weaker US dollar.  However, this weekend's position squaring may given us a better clue to the future direction for daily oil prices and in particula

r the likelihood of a breakout from the current pennant formation.  From a technical point of view, oil prices initially moved lower, in yesterday's trading, but found good support from the 40 day moving average and it was the failure to break below this indicator which sent the price of crude back towards both the 9 and 14 day averages, gaining 95 cents on the day, and once again flirting with the $50 per barrel price level.   Challenging the psychologically important $50.00 oil price per barrel level is now a distinct possibility but as I have outlined before we need to be extremely cautious given the pennant pattern and the unusual price movements that we have seen this week so my advice for any bull traders is to wait for a breakout above this level and only to re enter on the long side should we see a move back above $54 per barrel and supported by all three moving averages.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

Support:    $48.38 (yesterday’s low)     Resistance: $51.11 (high of 14/04/09)

Support:    $47.73 (low of 22/04/09)    Resistance: $50.00 (psychological level)

Support:    $46.73 (low of 21/04/09)    Resistance: $49.94 (yesterday’s high)

OIL (BRENT):

Support:    $49.25 (yesterday’s low)    Resistance: $51.92 (high of 20/04/09)

Support:    $48.85 (low of 22/04/09)   Resistance: $51.11 (9 day moving average)

Support:    $47.47 (low of 31/03/09)   Resistance: $50.51 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Fri, Apr 24 2009, 11:05 GMT

WTI Crude Oil Chart

Wed, Apr 22 2009, 10:04 GMT
by Anna Coulling

Master The Markets

Yesterday’s daily oil prices were unable to ignore a markedly stronger US dollar and sharp decline in the Dow Jones as investors worried once again about the banking sector. Matters were not helped by a rumour of a suspect blog purporting to have the stress test results for the banks. In fact these are not due for release until early May. These factors combined with mounting evidence of falling demand all added pressure to the price of crude oil and we finally saw a dramatic breakout from the pennant of the last few weeks with a wide spread down bar over a $4 range, with the close of the day finishing well below the 40 day moving average. However, following this morning’s open I would advocate extreme caution as prices have opened with a significant gap up of over $2 bouncing back into the pennant once again, an extremely unusual move and one which certainly fails to confirm the breakout, with prices so far today trading back above the 40 day moving average, no doubt trapping many traders on the short side.

Later today we have the API figures which analysts expect to show a further increase with crude oil stocks up by 3m barrels, but gasoline stocks down by 860,000 barrels, distillates down by 1.25m and refinery capacity up 1.05 to 81%. In addition the May 09 contract is coming under more selling pressure today, as oil traders continue to roll oil futures contracts ahead of today’s expiry and speculation over the possible lack of further OPEC reductions when they meet at the end of May, which is all putting pressure on the price curve moving forward. For the latest oil prices just follow the link here.

The short and medium term trends are sideways, the long term trend is bullish.

WTI:

• Support: $48.18 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $53.21 (high of 17/04/09)
• Support: $47.71 (low of 18/03/09) Resistance: $52.41 (yesterday’s high)
• Support: $47.21 (low of 17/04/09) Resistance: $49.98 (40 day moving average)

OIL (BRENT):

• Support: $49.60 (yesterday’s low) Resistance: $53.59 (high of 08/04/09)
• Support: $48.59 (low of 02/04/09) Resistance: $53.18 (high of 07/04/09)
• Support: $47.47 (low of 31/03/09) Resistance: $51.92 (yesterday’s high)

Published on  Wed, Apr 22 2009, 10:04 GMT