Every week, we are publishing the Experts Forecast Currencies Poll. A pool of selected traders and analysts gives us their targets for the major currencies for the week, month and quarter to come. They also indicate the whole trend in these periods.
The report includes a visual table for each pair, as well as the comments that the experts might have added to their analysis.
Agree or disagree? Comments? Your own forecast? Post your thoughts in the Forecasts discussion group!
| EURUSD | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | 1 Week | 1 Month | 1 Quarter | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levels | Trend | |||||||
| ©FXstreet.com | Fri, Nov 09 2012, 17:00 GMT | |||||||
| A. Narczewski | 1.2600 | 1.2400 | 1.2100 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Alberto Muñoz,PhD | 1.2580 | 1.2200 | 1.2000 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Anna Coulling | 1.2508 | 1.2763 | 1.3145 | Bearish | Sideways | Bullish | ||
| ANZ FX Strategy Team | - | - | 1.2900 | - | - | Bullish | ||
| BoA FX, Rates and Commodities Team | - | - | 1.2300 | - | - | Bearish | ||
| Capital Economics Research Team | - | - | 1.2000 | - | - | Bearish | ||
| Claudiu Cazacu | 1.2620 | 1.2790 | 1.3200 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Danske Research Team | - | - | 1.3500 | - | - | Bullish | ||
| DBS Group Research | - | - | 1.2800 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| Dr. S. Sivaraman | 1.3177 | 1.3856 | 1.4245 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| GFM Research Private Limited | 1.2660 | 1.2900 | 1.3250 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research | - | - | 1.2500 | - | - | Bearish | ||
| Gonçalo Moreira, CMT | 1.2650 | 1.3100 | 1.3200 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| HSBC Global Research Team | - | - | 1.3500 | - | - | Bullish | ||
| Hugo Venter | 1.2650 | 1.2200 | 1.1800 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| ICN.com analysis team | 1.2650 | 1.2700 | 1.3000 | Bearish | Sideways | Bullish | ||
| Ilian Yotov | 1.2600 | 1.2500 | 1.2500 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| ING Global Economics Team | - | - | 1.2200 | - | - | Bearish | ||
| J.P. Morgan Global FX Strategy | - | - | 1.3000 | - | - | Bullish | ||
| Joshua Martinez | 1.3000 | 1.3200 | 1.3578 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Luc Luyet, CMT, CIIA | 1.2650 | 1.2700 | 1.2800 | Bearish | Sideways | Sideways | ||
| Mauricio Carrillo | 1.2835 | 1.3000 | 1.2900 | Bullish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| NAB Global Markets Research | - | - | 1.3300 | - | - | Bullish | ||
| National Bank of Canada Eco. & Strat. Team | - | - | 1.2700 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| OCBC Treasury Research & Strategy Team | - | - | 1.2810 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| Rabobank Financial Markets Research Team | - | 1.2800 | 1.3000 | - | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| RBC Economic Research Team | - | - | 1.3200 | - | - | Bullish | ||
| RBS Team | - | - | 1.2700 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| Richard C. Lee | 1.2610 | 1.2863 | 1.3000 | Bearish | Bullish | Bullish | ||
| Ross Yamashita | 1.2650 | 1.2400 | 1.2000 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Scotiabank FX Strategy Team | - | - | 1.2700 | - | - | Sideways | ||
| Tad DeVan | 1.2500 | 1.2243 | 1.3100 | Bearish | Bearish | Bullish | ||
| TD Securities Research Team | - | - | 1.2500 | - | - | Bearish | ||
| Telmo Pinto | 1.2600 | - | - | Bearish | - | - | ||
| UBS FX Research Team | - | 1.3000 | 1.2500 | - | Bullish | Bearish | ||
| UniCredit Research | - | - | 1.3000 | - | - | Bullish | ||
| Valeria Bednarik | 1.2610 | 1.2440 | 1.2200 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Westpac Institutional Bank Team | - | 1.3100 | - | - | Bullish | - | ||
| Yohay Elam | 1.2600 | 1.2500 | 1.2500 | Bearish | Bearish | Bearish | ||
| Average | 1.2671 | 1.2745 | 1.2801 | Sideways | Sideways | Sideways | ||
middle level swings are expected to take Euro to further high till early next year as higher shift in trading zone
The pair is seen within a number of lower degree third waves which indicate we need to see very strong momentum to the downside. We have seen glimpses of this over the last week and we expect this to continue.
"The pair has dipped below 1.2750 key support and bottom of the range (1.2750-1.3200), threatening an extension of the bearish leg."
With euro-area economic conditions deteriorating, while debt crisis and "fiscal cliff" uncertainty triggers risk aversion, the EUR/USD pair could break lower.
The EURUSD is short term bearish, long-term bullish on the daily time frame.
The EURUSD has been range bound for quite some time. Considering the ongoing Euro zone issues and recent comments by Mario Draghi stating "the growth momentumn is expected to remain weak", I anticipate the EURUSD to remain range bound and move more bearish over the next week
There is more downside potential due to Germany's slowdown and the lack of solution in Greece.
Risk Disclosure
This forecast has just an informative meaning and cannot be treated as the guide to action, signal, recommendation or an offer to carry out certain trading operation. The experts of this poll expresses personal opinions and will not assume any responsibility whatsoever for the actions of the reader.We always aim for maximum accuracy, and FXstreet.com cannot be held responsible for inaccurate information or typos.
Eurodollar now looks set for a further move lower, as the US dollar continues to break higher on the USD index, following it's recent breakout from congestion in the 79.00 to 80.00 region on the daily chart. With the US dollar now looking set to test the underside of resistance in the 81.50 region we can expect to see the EUR/USD move lower over the next few days, and test the deep area of price congestion now sitting below in the 1.2500 region. Should this hold as expected then the pair should recover some bullish momentum with a run back to the 1.3000 region in the longer term.