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7
Today's Trading Signals Yearly Performance
Wed, Apr 8 2009, 08:34 GMT
by Klaus Ikast, Kim Cramer Larsson
Financial Trend Analysis
“Today’s Trading Signals” is prepared by Financial Trend Analysis (FTA). Decision-making is subjective but based on a number of technical analysis models. Exchange rate information comes from Bloomberg or Reuters and the return is calculated daily based on prices from these suppliers. Since there are no actual trades behind the return in securities covered in the analysis the return is theoretical. No back testing has taken place.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results and the actual current performance of the portfolio may be lower or higherthan the theoretical performance of the strategies. Theoretical strategy returns were the result of certain market factors and events which may not be replicated in the future.
Financial Trend Analysis has a goal of producing a return of at least 10 % a year. In 2007 our return was 10.33 %, 12.43 % in 2008 % and this year up until March 31st the return is 5.96 %. Since 2007 we have only reported 1 month with a total loss and only 1 currency cross with a yearly loss.
Performance calculations are exclusive of carry and are non-leveraged.
Every time we enter a trade or reverse a position we add or subtract a slippage. There is no slippage when targets are hit since they would be limit orders. See page two in the publication for slippage size.
The Information Ratio (IR) is based on monthly data and measured from 1 January 2007. Our IR is quite high and reflects our strategy of taking low risk high return in the FX market.
The information ratio (IR) measures portfolio manager's ability to generate excess returns relative to a benchmark, but also attempts to identify the consistency of the investor. The higher the IR the more consistent a manager is and consistency is an ideal trait. A high IR can be achieved by having a high return in the portfolio, a low return of the index and a low tracking error. See page two in the report for formula calculation.
The return assumes that there is the same nominal exposure in each currency cross ie. 1 mio. EUR or the equivalent amount in USD, GBP etc is placed in each cross every time a new position is taken.
Total 12 months return is the last 12 months performance on a rolling basis ie in the 2009 performance statement the last 12 months are from April 2008 and until the current month of 2009.
The chart: The bars show the performance for each currency cross measured in percentage on the left axis. The line is accumulated return of all crosses in percentage on the right axis.
EUR/CAD was not in the portfolio until May 2007. Since EUR/RON and JPY/KRW are new in the portfolio no performance has been calculated.
Published on
Tue, Nov 3 2009, 09:37 GMT
Financial Trend Analysis
| Copenhagen, Denmark.
http://www.ftanalysis.com/ | info@ftanalysis.com
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
IMPORTANT NOTICE
RISK WARNING
THE ESTIMATE OF THE FUTURE PERFORMANCE OF (FINANCIAL) INSTRUMENTS, SEE ABOVE, IN THIS REPORT MAY DEVIATE FROM THE ACTUAL PERFORMANCE OF THE INSTRUMENTS. HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. IN ADDITION, SINCE SOME OR ALL TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE
RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY OR FAST MARKET CONDITIONS.
NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM.
ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES (AND INCUR ACCOUNT DRAW DOWNS) OR TO ADHERE TO A
PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE IMPORTANT ISSUES WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS.
ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE USED FOR FOREX, COMMODITIES, FUTURES AND OTHER FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS TRADING DUE TO THE HIGH RISK OF LOSS.
THE CALCULATED RISK/REWARD SHOULD BE REGARDED AS HYPOTHETICAL ALSO AND AS AN ESTIMATE OF POTENTIAL GAIN AND LOSS. THE CALCULATIONS DO NOT TAKE TRADING COSTS AND SPREADS INTO ACCOUNT. THERE WILL HOWEVER, BE CALCULATED A SLIPPAGE WHEN THE HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE IS BEING CALCULATED.
DISCLAIMER
This publication has been prepared by FTA for information purposes only. This publication is not an offer or solicitation of any offers to purchase or sell any securities, currency or financial instrument. The information contained herein is solely for informational purposes. Any charts and other opinions constituting the information contained herein are, and must be construed solely as statements of opinion and not statements of fact, recommendations and/or trading advice. FTA cautions that no single source of information should be used when making trading decisions.Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from reliance on it.
FTA believes that the information contained herein is accurate however; FTA cannot guarantee the accuracy of said materials. Under no circumstances shall FTA or its staff have any liability to any person or entity for (a) any loss or damage in whole or in part caused by, resulting from, or relating to, any error (negligent or otherwise) or other circumstance in connection with the collection, compilation, analysis, interpretation, editing, transcription, transmission, communication, publication or delivery of such information, or (b) any direct, indirect, compensatory or incidental damages whatsoever (including without limitation, lost profits) resulting from the use of or inability to use any such information.The author and publisher of this report shall not be liable for any loss of profit or any other commercial damages, including but not limited to special, incidental, consequential or other damages.
Customers should be aware of the risks associated with over-the-counter, spot Forex trading. In the off-exchange market, also called the over-the-counter market, a retail customer trades directly with a counterparty and there is no exchange or central clearing house to support the transaction. Trading forex, commodities and other financial instruments is highly speculative in nature, which can mean prices may become extremely volatile. Forex trading is highly leveraged. Since low margin deposits normally are required, an extremely high degree of leverage is obtained in over-the-counter trading. A relatively small market movement will have a proportionately larger impact on the funds you have deposited. You may sustain a total loss of your funds. Since the possibility of losing your entire cash balance does exist, speculation in the over-the-counter market should only be conducted with risk capital you can afford to lose and which will not dramatically impact your lifestyle.
As each individual situation is unique, questions relevant to personal finances and specific to the individual should be addressed to an appropriate professional to ensure that the situation has been carefully and appropriately evaluated. Any advice is general and does not take into account your objectives, financial situation and needs. You should always consider whether it is appropriate for You.
This publication is not intended for retail customers anywhere in the world or any person in the US.
Copyright © 2009 Financial Trend Analysis. All rights reserved.
This publication is protected by copyright and may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
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