Spot Gold consolidates recent heavy losses as extended third wave that commenced from 1684, was completed at 1554. Fourth corrective wave is under way and is expected to stay capped at 1585, 23.6% of 1684/1554 / 4h 20 day EMA, equivalent by size to the second wave. According to the wave principles, the fifth wave could travel to 1540, equivalent to the length of the wave one. Strong bearish stance on the larger timeframes sees the downside favored, while 4h indicators are for now lacking momentum for stronger recovery. Previous support at 1600, now offers good resistance, accompanied by Fib 38.2% of 1684/1554 descend, while any stronger recovery requires clearance of 1620/25, 50% retracement / 04 Jan low and 1635, Fib 61.8% / 20 Dec 2012 low, to avert risk of re-visiting critical 1526 support. Weekly close below 1600 handle to confirm bearish structure.
Res: 1585, 1600, 1620, 1625
Sup: 1575, 1554, 1548, 1526
Silver is in near-term consolidative mode, after strong fall from 32.00 zone found temporary footstep at 28.27, Fibonacci / channel support. Recovery remains limited under 29.00 barrier, 50% of 29.60/28.27, 20 Feb downleg and hourly 55 day EMA / 4h 20 day EMA. Slightly improved hourly studies are insufficient to produce stronger recovery, as 4h chart indicators are well in the negative territory. Minimum requirement for stronger recovery is regain of previous low at 29.20, also 50% of 30.12/28.27 downleg and 29.60, 20 Feb high, above which would ease bear-pressure. Underlying bear-trend, however, keeps the downside vulnerable, with increased risk of full retracement of larger 26.11/35.36 uptrend seen on a break below the channel support.
Res: 28.90, 29.09, 29.20, 29.60
Sup: 28.27, 28.00, 27.50, 27.00
CRUDE OIL (Apr)
Fresh bear phase has been triggered on break below 95.00 base that ended consolidation period and opened way for more significant reversal of 85.20/98.63 rally. Fresh weakness reached 92.63 so far, Fib 161.8% projection of 95.00/98.63 rally, with narrow consolidation underway. While initial barrier at 94.00, also Fib 23.6% of entire 98.63/92.63 descend stays intact, more downside risk could be anticipated, with next target seen at 92.00, 50% of 85.20/98.63 upleg. Conversely, lift above 94.00, would delay bears, however, break above key near-term barrier and previous base at 95.00, is required to sideline bears.
Res: 93.45, 93.77, 94.00, 94.48
Sup: 92.63, 92.00, 91.52, 91.00