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EUR/CHF Outlook

Wed, Jan 28 2009, 11:04 GMT
by ActionForex.com Team

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EUR/CHF's rebound extends further today and the break of 1.5143 is inline with our view that a short term bottom is in place at 1.4657, after drawing support from 78.6% retracement of 1.4315 to 1.5880 at 1.4650. Fall from 1.5880 should have completed, and more importantly, as a correction to whole rise from 1.4315. Further rise is now in favor to retest 1.5880 resistance first. On the downside, though, below 1.4964 will mix up the short term outlook again and flip intraday bias back to the downside for retesting 1.4657 low.

In the bigger picture, current development is inline with the favored case that fall from 1.5880 has completed at 1.4657, above 1.4315. Also, whole decline from 1.6827 has likely completed with three waves down to 1.4315 too. The corrective nature suggests that it's possibly part of a large range sideway pattern between 1.4135 and 1.6827. Further break of 1.5880 will add much credence to this case and bring rally to 1.6368 and then 1.6827.

On the other hand, note that so far, EUR/CHF is maintaining a pattern of lower highs and lower lows since 1.6827 and the cross is still trading well below 55 weeks EMA. Below 1.4657 near term support will firstly indicate that fall from 1.5880 is still force. It will also argue that down trend from 1.6827 is still in progress for at least another test of 1.4315 before completion.


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