2024 US Presidential Elections


Biden vs Trump v2.0, history repeats itself

The 2024 US elections compendium

The 2024 U.S. election cycle has arrived, and with it have come questions about what the election will mean for the economic outlook. This compendium compiles a recent three-part series we wrote that examines the election and its economic implications from multiple angles. In Part I, we provide some background on this year's election including the outlook for control of the House of Representatives, Senate and White House.


Trump Effect on markets

The upcoming US presidential elections are slated for November 5th, 2024. These elections hold global significance, given the influential role of the occupant of the Oval Office in shaping international affairs. The outcome of this electoral event is eagerly anticipated, and the world is closely monitoring it.

The presumptive candidates, Donald Trump and President Joe Biden, are still the two most unusual competitors since the early days of the Republic two centuries ago.

Without delving into politics, we'll examine the status of the two parties and the candidates, focusing on the insights from the financial market.


The 2024 US elections: Fiscal policy implications

The 2024 U.S. election will determine who is in charge of Congress and the White House come January 2025, which will have critical implications for the federal fiscal policy outlook, and by extension, the U.S. economic outlook. The debt ceiling will be reinstated on January 2, 2025. Our base case is the “X date” (the date when Treasury would be unable to meet all its obligations on time) falls in the summer of 2025. However, there is a risk it falls as early as February 2025.


US Election implication in financial markets

Historically, US election years tend to be characterized by higher volatility, as markets are attentive to policy changes and their implications for economic growth. Although markets are quite resilient to political changes in the long term, they are often more influenced by economic indicators. During Trump's presidency, the focus was on deregulation and tax cuts. Under his motto "America First", his administration aimed to protect domestic industry from Chinese imports in particular.

Trump Effect on markets

During Trump's presidency, the focus was on deregulation and tax cuts. Under his motto "America First", his administration aimed to protect domestic industry from Chinese imports in particular. Conversely, the Biden administration has increased public spending on reshoring semiconductor manufacturing and placed new curbs on technology exports to China. The current administration aims to revitalize the economy through investment in infrastructure, social services and investment in renewable energy.


New hints of election year

Most asked questions on US Elections

When is the next US presidential election?

The 2024 US election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5, 2024.

The winning candidate will begin a four-year term in the White House in January 2025 following the election.

Who are the candidates?

In the United States, elections are usually defined between the two main parties, the Republican party and the Democratic party. Each nominates a presidential candidate by holding a series of state primaries and/or caucuses. There are differences between the parties, and the process varies from one state to another.

One of the biggest polling days is known as Super Tuesday, so-called because more than a dozen states hold their primary contests on that day. This year, it took place on March 5.

President Biden announced his re-election bid earlier this year and has won enough support to secure the Democratic Party nomination despite some long-shot challenges.

In the Republican Party, former President Donald Trump saw off his last remaining challenger, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, and has won enough primary contests to propel him over the finish line to be nominated the Republican candidate. Some independent candidates are also running for president, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr, nephew to former president John F. Kennedy.

How does the US presidential election work?

Candidates compete for 538 electoral college votes, with 270 needed to win. Each state's electoral votes, based partly on population, are won by the candidate who wins the most votes there. The winner-takes-all rule applies in most states, meaning the leading candidate receives all of that state's electoral votes. Since most states lean toward one party, attention focuses on battleground states, where either candidate could win.

Who can vote?

18-year-old or older US citizens can vote in the presidential election held every four years.

Why are general elections held on Tuesday after the first Monday in November?

Election Day is strategically placed about a month before the Electoral College vote to avoid conflicts with the harvest and harsh weather in agrarian societies. Voting on Tuesday instead of Monday accommodated those travelling to vote, especially those from remote areas, who preferred to avoid traveling on Sunday, a day of religious observance. By choosing the first Tuesday after the first Monday, lawmakers ensured Election Day would be different from November 1, when merchants tallied their monthly accounts.

What is the lame-duck period?

The time between elections and the inauguration in the US is called the "lame duck period." A president becomes a lame duck after a successor is elected, during which the outgoing and incoming presidents usually transition power.


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