A pause in dollar bullishness?


  • Risky: Sell the EURUSD at 1.3075, SL 1.3125, targets 1.3015, 1.2900, 1.2790, 1.23(!).

  • Very risky: buy the AUDUSD at 0.9485, SL 0.9445, targets 0.9550, 0.9600, 0.97.


After reaching very high levels around 169x, the SP500 started correcting back towards 1600-1650. The market is psychologically ready for a healthy 5%-10% correction that should lead us to below the area in between 1550-1600 where we would book some profits. In the meantime, the Australian dollar rebounded on the 0.96 level that we suggested, before getting down again.
We would consider another risky long entry in case the Australian dollar falls during the first days of the coming week below 0.95. Regarding the yen, it is now very difficult to find entry points.

We continue to be bearish on EURUSD. The major head and shoulder pattern has not yet been triggered and we still might revisit the area of 1.30-1.31 next week. We would consider a short entry close to the trend line resistance from the last tops at 1.37x and 1.32x, which would be in between 1.3050 and 1.31. A possible area of entry could be the 150-DMA at 1.3075 as well as the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace from the last top at 1.32x to the last bottom at 1.279x. A bearish golden cross is also now in place.


SP500 Weekly chart


EURUSD Daily chart 1


EURUSD Daily Chart 2

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