Dukascopy Bank Team
Dukascopy Bank SA
AUD/CAD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: The overall outlook on AUD/CAD is bullish. The currency pair is trading in a high-quality ascending channel and above the 200-period SMA. At the same time, the daily and weekly technical indicators are largely pointing upwards. Moreover, most of the open positions are short, meaning the Aussie is oversold and a substantial increase in supply is unlikely.
However, in the near term the risks are considered to be skewed to the downside, being that the exchange rate is approaching the upper trend-line of the pattern. During this week the price is expected to turn around between the January high and monthly R3 and complete a downward correction.
USD/CAD 4H Chart: Channel Up
Comment: After hitting a solid resistance level 1.40 the currency pair has entered a consolidation phase, but the lower boundary of the recently formed channel remains intact. Accordingly, our bias towards the US Dollar is positive, and there should soon be a rebound from the rising support line at 1.3916. Once and if the obstacle at 1.40 is out of the way, the next target will be at 1.4158, represented by the 2003 August high.
Alternatively, in case demand around 1.39 proves insufficient to trigger a rally, the Greenback will probably depreciate until the price falls to 1.3675, where the monthly R2 merges with the Dec 15 low.
This overview can be used only for informational purposes. Dukascopy SA is not responsible for any losses arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained.
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