Nick Mastrandrea
Market Tea Leaves
Good Morning Traders,
As of this writing 4:30 AM EST, here’s what we see:
US Dollar: Down at 99.465 the US Dollar is down 186 ticks and trading at 99.465.
Energies: March Crude is down at 31.12.
Financials: The Mar 30 year bond is up 13 ticks and trading at 159.14.
Indices: The Mar S&P 500 emini ES contract is down 26 ticks and trading at 1892.75.
Gold: The Feb gold contract is trading up at 1104.30. Gold is 80 ticks higher than its close.
Initial Conclusion
This is not a correlated market. The dollar is down- and crude is down- which is not normal but the 30 year bond is trading higher. The Financials should always correlate with the US dollar such that if the dollar is lower then bonds should follow and vice-versa. The indices are down and Crude is trading lower which is not correlated. Gold is trading up which is correlated with the US dollar trading down. I tend to believe that Gold has an inverse relationship with the US Dollar as when the US Dollar is down, Gold tends to rise in value and vice-versa. Think of it as a seesaw, when one is up the other should be down. I point this out to you to make you aware that when we don’t have a correlated market, it means something is wrong. As traders you need to be aware of this and proceed with your eyes wide open.
All of Asia traded higher. As this writing all of Europe is trading lower.
Possible Challenges To Traders Today
- No major economic news.
- Lack of major economic news.
Currencies
On Friday the Swiss Franc made it’s move at around 9:20 AM EST before the major economic news was reported. The USD hit a high at around that time and the Swiss Franc hit a low. If you look at the charts below the USD gave a signal at around 9:20 AM EST, while the Swiss Franc also gave a signal at just about the same time. Look at the charts below and you’ll see a pattern for both assets. The USD hit a high at around 9:20 AM EST and the Swiss Franc hit a low. These charts represent the latest version of Trend Following Trades and I’ve changed the timeframe to a Renko chart to display better. This represented a long opportunity on the Swiss Franc, as a trader you could have netted about 20 plus ticks per contract on this trade. We added a Donchian Channel to the charts to show the signals more clearly. Remember each tick on the Swiss Franc is equal to $12.50 versus the $10.00 that we usually see for currencies.
Charts Courtesy of Trend Following Trades built on a NinjaTrader platform
Bias
On Friday we gave the markets an upside bias as both the Bonds and Gold were trading down and usually this is indicative of an upside move. We were correct in that the Dow gained 211 points and the other indices migrated to the upside as well. Today we aren’t dealing with a correlated market and our bias is to the downside.
Could this change? Of Course. Remember anything can happen in a volatile market.
Commentary
Our biggest concern on Friday was if whether or not the upside move we witnessed on Thursday was a one time event (otherwise known as a Dead Cat Bounce) or the beginning of something else. The news reported on Friday in terms of Flash Manufacturing PMI and Existing Home Sales was positive although the Leading Index was not. Despite that the Dow gained 211 points and the other indices gained ground as well. Today we have no major news or reports so it’ll interesting to see how the markets react to this. As in all things, only time will tell.
Trading performance displayed herein is hypothetical. The following Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) disclaimer should be noted.
Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown.
In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance trading results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight.
In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results.
There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.
Trading in the commodities markets involves substantial risk and YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY, and thus is not appropriate for everyone. You should carefully consider your financial condition before trading in these markets, and only risk capital should be used.
In addition, these markets are often liquid, making it difficult to execute orders at desired prices. Also, during periods of extreme volatility, trading in these markets may be halted due to so-called “circuit breakers” put in place by the CME to alleviate such volatility. In the event of a trading halt, it may be difficult or impossible to exit a losing position.
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