Jens Nærvig Pedersen
Danske Bank A/S
Market Movers
The most important release today is the jobs report for January. The labour market tightened significantly in 2015, which was the main reason why the Fed raised the target rate in December. The financial turmoil partly reflects rising growth concerns due to tighter monetary policy in the US and weak economic data and hence a strong jobs report could calm the markets. We expect non-farm payrolls to have increased 200,000 in January in line with the recent trend. The unemployment rate is likely to be unchanged at 5.0%.
We are also set to receive data for German factory orders for December, which we overall expect to have declined slightly. Looking at the components, we expect the foreign orders to remain weak but to increase in line with stronger import data from China for December. Similarly, we expect the domestic orders component to remain relatively solid relative to its usual volatile pattern and therefore only look for a small decline in total.
Scandi markets will focus on the release of industrial production data in Denmark, Norway and Sweden.
Selected Market News
A new poll shows that the ‘leave EU’ side in the UK has gained support following the draft deal that was published earlier this week. In the poll the ‘leave EU’ side has support from 45%, while the ‘stay in EU’ side has support from 36%. There is still a large group that is undecided.
Equity prices and commodity prices declined overnight and the dollar has continued to slide as market sentiment remains fragile ahead of the all important release of the US job market report today.
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